The GHG emissions pathways and targets in Brazil: 1990 - 2013

Land Use Change Sector

Amintas Brandão Jr. Adjunct Researcher brandaojr@imazon.org.br

Lima COP20/CMP10 Side-Event Saturday 06, Dec 2014 11:30—13:00

Land Use Change GHG Emissions 1990-2013

Technical Team - Amintas Brandão Jr. - Brenda Brito - Carlos Souza Jr.

Acknowledgments - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) [Marcos Costa] - Imperial College (UK) [Isabel Rosa and Robert Ewers] - SOS Mata Atlântica - Laboratório de Processamento de Imagens e

Geoprocessamento (LAPIG)

Presentation Layout

1. Scope of the survey

2. Sources of GHG

3. Characteristics of the Sector

4. Results

5. Trajectory, Goals, and Commitments

LUC>> Presentation Layout 3

LUC>> SCOPE OF THE SURVEY 4

Non-included: • Second order emission

Includes: • First order emissions • Deforestation

(Agricultural/Cattle Ranching)

Second order emissions: more robust method that represents the gradual release process / carbon absorption

First order Emission: simplified method which assumes that 100 % of the emissions occur at the time of the change.

Emissions Greenhouse Gas

CO2 CH4 N2O

Deforestation

Liming

Burning of Forest Residues

Removals

Protected Areas

Land Use Change Sector Emissions associated with the variation in the amount of carbon ( biomass , soil, limestone in agriculture ) Removals related to the growth of vegetation and the presence of forests in protected areas.

LUC>> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 7

Source: MCTI (2013)

CO2 Emissions in 2005

LUC>> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 8

Fonte: MCTI (2010)

Amazônia 4,20 49%

Cerrado 2,04 24%

Matal Atlântica

1,11 13%

Caatinga 0,84 10%

Pampa 0,18 2%

Pantanal 0,15 2%

Brazilian Biomes

Million of km² % of Total

LUC >> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 9

Source: MCTI (2010)

Mapping Scale 1:250.000

LUC >> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 10

Source: MCTI (2010)

Cross tabulation Matrix: cells in gray represent the non-permissible transitions

11

Biome 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source

Amazônia PRODES

Caatinga PMDBBS

Cerrado PMDBBS and Lapig

Mata Atlântica

PMDBBS / SOS Mata Atlântica

Pampa PMDBBS

Pantanal PMDBBS

Transition Forest - Deforestation

Estimated Annual Deforestation Rate (km²/n years)

Mapped Deforestation Rate (km²/year)

Deforestation Data Available to Estimate the GHG Emissions from 1990-2013

LUC>> RESULTS 12

1,25

2,20

1,16

2,03

1,15

0,54

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Bill

ion

s

Emissions of GHG (LUC) : 1990-2013 (tCO2 GWP)

Total 1990-2013 30.2 Billion tCO2 (GWP)

LUC>> RESULTS 13

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Bill

ion

Emissions of GHG (LUC), 1990-2013 (tCO2 GWP): by Gas

Land Use Change (CO2) Liming (CO2) Burning of Forest Residues (NH4 e N2O)

LUC>> RESULTS 14

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

Bill

ion

Emissions of GHG (LUC), 1990-2013 (tCO2 GWP): by Biome

Amazônia Caatinga

Cerrado Mata Atlântica

Pampa Pantanal

Proportion of the Total GHG Emissions (%): 1990-2013

LUC>> RESULTS 15

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

PA

MA

AM TO RS

GO

MS

CE

SP AP

RN SC SE RJ

Bill

ion

Emissions of GHG (LUC) in 2013 (tCO2 GWP): by State

Proportion of GHG Emission in 2013 (%)

25%

9%

7%

7%

4%

LUC>> RESULTS 16

Variation 2012-2013

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

PA

MA

AM TO RS

GO

MS

CE

SP AP

RN SC SE RJ

Bill

ion

GHG Emission: variation 2012-2013 (tCO2 GWP) – by State

Emissões 2012 Emissões 2013

Total Variation +16,4%

Emissions 2012 Emissions 2013

LUC>> RESULTS 17

Agricultural 29%

Energy 30%

Land Use Change

32%

Industrial 6%

Residues 3%

BRAZIL GHG EMISSIONS - 2012

Agricultural 27%

Energy 30%

Land Use Change

35%

Industrial 5%

Residues 3%

BRAZIL GHG EMISSIONS - 2013

LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 18

1,40

0,38

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Em

issio

ns f

rom

th

e L

an

d U

se C

han

ge S

ecto

r B

illio

n o

f tC

O2e

(GW

P)

Decree 7,390 (2010): Annual Projection2020

Decree 7,390 (2010): Goal 2020

SEEG Annual Estimation

Decree 7,390 (2010)

Projection 2020

Goal 2020

-80% Amazônia (1996-2005)

-40% Cerrado (1999-2008)

LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 19

1,40

0,38

0,26

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Em

issio

ns f

rom

th

e L

an

d U

se C

han

ge S

ecto

r B

illio

n o

f tC

O2e

(GW

P)

Decree 7,390 (2010): Annual Projection2020

Decree 7,390 (2010): Goal 2020

Scenario 1. Average reduction since 2005

SEEG Annual Estimation

Decree 7,390 (2010)

LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 20

1,40

0,38

0,26

0,47

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Em

issio

ns f

rom

th

e L

an

d U

se C

han

ge S

ecto

r B

illio

n o

f tC

O2e

(GW

P)

Decree 7,390 (2010): Annual Projection2020

Decree 7,390 (2010): Goal 2020

Scenario 1. Average reduction since 2005

Scenario 2. Average reduction since 2010

SEEG Annual Estimation

Decree 7,390 (2010)

LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 21

• Increase fight against Deforestation in Amazônia and Cerrado

• Fight speculative deforestation

• Increase Taxes on Private Ownership (i.e. ITR)

Recommendations for achieving the

2020 Goals of reduction for the

LUC Sector

The GHG emissions pathways and targets in Brazil: 1990 - 2013

Thank you / Obrigado !

Amintas Brandão Jr. Adjunct Researcher brandaojr@imazon.org.br

Lima COP20/CMP10 Side-Event Saturday 06, Dec 2014 11:30—13:00