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The GHG emissions pathways and targets in Brazil: 1990 - 2013 · The GHG emissions pathways and...
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The GHG emissions pathways and targets in Brazil: 1990 - 2013 Land Use Change Sector Amintas Brandão Jr. Adjunct Researcher [email protected] Lima COP20/CMP10 Side-Event Saturday 06, Dec 2014 11:30—13:00
Transcript of The GHG emissions pathways and targets in Brazil: 1990 - 2013 · The GHG emissions pathways and...
The GHG emissions pathways and targets in Brazil: 1990 - 2013
Land Use Change Sector
Amintas Brandão Jr. Adjunct Researcher [email protected]
Lima COP20/CMP10 Side-Event Saturday 06, Dec 2014 11:30—13:00
Land Use Change GHG Emissions 1990-2013
Technical Team - Amintas Brandão Jr. - Brenda Brito - Carlos Souza Jr.
Acknowledgments - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) [Marcos Costa] - Imperial College (UK) [Isabel Rosa and Robert Ewers] - SOS Mata Atlântica - Laboratório de Processamento de Imagens e
Geoprocessamento (LAPIG)
Presentation Layout
1. Scope of the survey
2. Sources of GHG
3. Characteristics of the Sector
4. Results
5. Trajectory, Goals, and Commitments
LUC>> Presentation Layout 3
LUC>> SCOPE OF THE SURVEY 4
Non-included: • Second order emission
Includes: • First order emissions • Deforestation
(Agricultural/Cattle Ranching)
Second order emissions: more robust method that represents the gradual release process / carbon absorption
First order Emission: simplified method which assumes that 100 % of the emissions occur at the time of the change.
Emissions Greenhouse Gas
CO2 CH4 N2O
Deforestation
Liming
Burning of Forest Residues
Removals
Protected Areas
Land Use Change Sector Emissions associated with the variation in the amount of carbon ( biomass , soil, limestone in agriculture ) Removals related to the growth of vegetation and the presence of forests in protected areas.
LUC>> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 7
Source: MCTI (2013)
CO2 Emissions in 2005
LUC>> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 8
Fonte: MCTI (2010)
Amazônia 4,20 49%
Cerrado 2,04 24%
Matal Atlântica
1,11 13%
Caatinga 0,84 10%
Pampa 0,18 2%
Pantanal 0,15 2%
Brazilian Biomes
Million of km² % of Total
LUC >> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 9
Source: MCTI (2010)
Mapping Scale 1:250.000
LUC >> CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SECTOR 10
Source: MCTI (2010)
Cross tabulation Matrix: cells in gray represent the non-permissible transitions
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Biome 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source
Amazônia PRODES
Caatinga PMDBBS
Cerrado PMDBBS and Lapig
Mata Atlântica
PMDBBS / SOS Mata Atlântica
Pampa PMDBBS
Pantanal PMDBBS
Transition Forest - Deforestation
Estimated Annual Deforestation Rate (km²/n years)
Mapped Deforestation Rate (km²/year)
Deforestation Data Available to Estimate the GHG Emissions from 1990-2013
LUC>> RESULTS 12
1,25
2,20
1,16
2,03
1,15
0,54
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
19
90
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92
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Bill
ion
s
Emissions of GHG (LUC) : 1990-2013 (tCO2 GWP)
Total 1990-2013 30.2 Billion tCO2 (GWP)
LUC>> RESULTS 13
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
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90
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91
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Bill
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Emissions of GHG (LUC), 1990-2013 (tCO2 GWP): by Gas
Land Use Change (CO2) Liming (CO2) Burning of Forest Residues (NH4 e N2O)
LUC>> RESULTS 14
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
19
90
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92
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Emissions of GHG (LUC), 1990-2013 (tCO2 GWP): by Biome
Amazônia Caatinga
Cerrado Mata Atlântica
Pampa Pantanal
Proportion of the Total GHG Emissions (%): 1990-2013
LUC>> RESULTS 15
0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
PA
MA
AM TO RS
GO
MS
CE
SP AP
RN SC SE RJ
Bill
ion
Emissions of GHG (LUC) in 2013 (tCO2 GWP): by State
Proportion of GHG Emission in 2013 (%)
25%
9%
7%
7%
4%
LUC>> RESULTS 16
Variation 2012-2013
0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
PA
MA
AM TO RS
GO
MS
CE
SP AP
RN SC SE RJ
Bill
ion
GHG Emission: variation 2012-2013 (tCO2 GWP) – by State
Emissões 2012 Emissões 2013
Total Variation +16,4%
Emissions 2012 Emissions 2013
LUC>> RESULTS 17
Agricultural 29%
Energy 30%
Land Use Change
32%
Industrial 6%
Residues 3%
BRAZIL GHG EMISSIONS - 2012
Agricultural 27%
Energy 30%
Land Use Change
35%
Industrial 5%
Residues 3%
BRAZIL GHG EMISSIONS - 2013
LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 18
1,40
0,38
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Em
issio
ns f
rom
th
e L
an
d U
se C
han
ge S
ecto
r B
illio
n o
f tC
O2e
(GW
P)
Decree 7,390 (2010): Annual Projection2020
Decree 7,390 (2010): Goal 2020
SEEG Annual Estimation
Decree 7,390 (2010)
Projection 2020
Goal 2020
-80% Amazônia (1996-2005)
-40% Cerrado (1999-2008)
LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 19
1,40
0,38
0,26
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Em
issio
ns f
rom
th
e L
an
d U
se C
han
ge S
ecto
r B
illio
n o
f tC
O2e
(GW
P)
Decree 7,390 (2010): Annual Projection2020
Decree 7,390 (2010): Goal 2020
Scenario 1. Average reduction since 2005
SEEG Annual Estimation
Decree 7,390 (2010)
LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 20
1,40
0,38
0,26
0,47
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Em
issio
ns f
rom
th
e L
an
d U
se C
han
ge S
ecto
r B
illio
n o
f tC
O2e
(GW
P)
Decree 7,390 (2010): Annual Projection2020
Decree 7,390 (2010): Goal 2020
Scenario 1. Average reduction since 2005
Scenario 2. Average reduction since 2010
SEEG Annual Estimation
Decree 7,390 (2010)
LUC>> TRAJECTORY, GOALS, AND COMMITMENTS 21
• Increase fight against Deforestation in Amazônia and Cerrado
• Fight speculative deforestation
• Increase Taxes on Private Ownership (i.e. ITR)
Recommendations for achieving the
2020 Goals of reduction for the
LUC Sector
The GHG emissions pathways and targets in Brazil: 1990 - 2013
Thank you / Obrigado !
Amintas Brandão Jr. Adjunct Researcher [email protected]
Lima COP20/CMP10 Side-Event Saturday 06, Dec 2014 11:30—13:00
