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The South China Seas Roiled Waters:Diplomatic Settlement or Destabilizing
Naval Arms Build Up?
Professor Carl ThayerProfessor Carl ThayerAustralian Institute of International AffairsAustralian Institute of International Affairs
(ACT Branch)(ACT Branch)
July 7, 2009July 7, 2009
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OverviewOverview
Strategic OverviewStrategic Overview
Maritime territorial claimsMaritime territorial claims
Chinese assertivenessChinese assertivenessRoiled waters, 2009Roiled waters, 2009
Yulin Naval Base, Hainan IslandYulin Naval Base, Hainan Island
Naval arms build upNaval arms build upDiplomatic prospectsDiplomatic prospects
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1. Strategic Overview1. Strategic Overview
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Paracel (Xisha
or Hoang Sa)
and
Spratly(Nansha or
Truong Sa)
Archipelagoes
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2. Maritime territorial claims2. Maritime territorial claims
Chinas
historical
claims undefined
stroke
marks ona map
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Inter-mixed pattern of occupation
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3. Chinese assertiveness 20073. Chinese assertiveness 2007
BP oil and gas plans shelved temporarilyBP oil and gas plans shelved temporarilyunder Chinese pressure (March-June)under Chinese pressure (March-June)
Chinese naval vessels detain 4 VietnameseChinese naval vessels detain 4 Vietnamese
fishing craft (April)fishing craft (April) Chinese sink one Vietnamese boat and killChinese sink one Vietnamese boat and kill
one fisherman (9one fisherman (9thth July)July)
PLAN naval exercise in Paracels (November)PLAN naval exercise in Paracels (November)
National Peoples Council creates ShansaNational Peoples Council creates Shansacounty level administrative districtcounty level administrative district
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Chinese Response to Vietnams
Maritime Strategy to 2020
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Chinas Invasion Plan
Posted on Chinese web sites in August 2008
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4. Roiled Waters, 20094. Roiled Waters, 2009
UN Commission on the Limits of theUN Commission on the Limits of the
Continental Shelf (CLCS)Continental Shelf (CLCS) deadline May 13deadline May 13
Malaysias Prime Minister visits SwallowMalaysias Prime Minister visits Swallow
Reef to assert sovereigntyReef to assert sovereignty
Philippines Archipelagic Baselines ActPhilippines Archipelagic Baselines Act
Malaysia-Vietnam make joint submissionMalaysia-Vietnam make joint submissionto UN CLCS; Vietnam also submitsto UN CLCS; Vietnam also submits
separate submission; China lodgesseparate submission; China lodges
protestprotest
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UN Commission on Limits of Continental Shelf May 13, 2009
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USNS Impeccable IncidentUSNS Impeccable Incident
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Unilateral Chinese
Fishing Ban,May 16-August 1, 2009
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5. Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island5. Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island
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SanyaSanya
Naval BaseNaval Base
5 Aug 05 to5 Aug 05 to28 Feb 0828 Feb 08
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Yulin Naval Base
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Deep Sea Trench SSBN Patrol Area
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Chinas String of Pearls
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Chinese Airstrip Woody Island, Paracel Archipelago
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Fiery Cross and Mischief ReefsFiery Cross and Mischief Reefs
Consolidation of facilitieson Fiery Cross and
permanent naval presence
at Mischief Reef
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6. Naval arms build up6. Naval arms build up
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Vietnamese Naval ModernisationVietnamese Naval Modernisation
Tarantul Frigate
BPS 500 Missile Boat
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Area Denial Submarine AcquisitionsArea Denial Submarine Acquisitions
China - 5 SSBNs
by 2010
Singapore - 4
Malaysia - 2Indonesia - 3
Vietnam - 6
Australia - 12
US re-
deployments to
Western
Pacific
Vietnam in market for up to six
Project 636 Kilo class submarines
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6. Prospects for Diplomatic Settlement6. Prospects for Diplomatic Settlement
BilateralBilateralChina-Vietnam + PhilippinesChina-Vietnam + Philippines
China-MalaysiaChina-Malaysia
Vietnam + Indonesia & MalaysiaVietnam + Indonesia & Malaysia
MultilateralMultilateralASEAN Code of Conduct?ASEAN Code of Conduct?
ASEAN Regional ForumASEAN Regional Forum
Outside Balancers United StatesOutside Balancers United States
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