Post on 11-Nov-2014
description
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Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and
Building Resilience
Ben SlayUNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and CIS
Podgorica, 11 September 2014
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Presentation topics
• Report– Global– Regional
• Human development index rankings– Montenegro– Neighbouring
countries
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Report: Core messages• Human development is not only about enlarging
people’s choices to lead a healthy, long life, to be educated and to enjoy a decent standard of living. It is also about ensuring that these choices are secure. And that requires us to understand—and tackle—vulnerability.
-- Khalid Malik (Director, UNDP-HDRO)• Reducing vulnerability means:– Reducing inequality– Building resilience to shocks/reversals
• Natural disasters• Socio-economic, health shocks
– Better global governance, more collective action
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“Structural vulnerability”
Who is vulnerable? To what? Why?The poor, workers in the
informal sector, the socially excluded
Economic, health shocks
Limited capabilities
Women, the disabled, migrants, minorities, children
and youth, the elderly
Natural disasters, climate change,
industrial hazards
Position in life cycle,
society
Individuals, households, communities, regions,
countries
Conflict, civil unrest
Policies, institutions
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Global vulnerability indicators—Shares of world population living, working:
80%
30%
21%
12%
With inadequate social protection
In, or close to, multi-dimensional poverty
In informal, precarious jobs
In chronic hunger
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Response: Build resilience along three thematic dimensions
• Universalism:– Universal access to quality basic services– Decent employment– Social protection
• Social cohesion and inclusion:– Non-discrimination, access to justice– Special attention to vulnerable groups
• Disaster risk management:– Early warning systems– “Build back better”
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The global governance response: Before, and after, 2015
• By 2015: Meet the Millennium Development Goals—and the Hyogo Framework for Action– MDGs (2000-2015): Global poverty risk reduction framework– HFA (2005-2015): Global disaster risk reduction framework
• Post-2015:– Sustainable Development Goals that integrate:
• Social, economic, environmental dimensions of sustainable development
• Policies/programming for development, resilience, reductions in vulnerability
– Key events:• UN Summit on the post-2015 development agenda (September 2015)• World Humanitarian summit (regional consultations, 2014-2015)
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Regional dimension: These issues matter—especially in the Balkans
• Macroeconomic stagnation• Large issues of exclusion
– Labour market– Ethnicity (Roma)
• Social protection systems under stress– Large informal sectors– Demographic trends– Fiscal constraints
• Natural disasters, climate risk– May 2014 flooding– Longer term:
• Rising Adriatic sea levels?• More extreme weather events?
Growth is not lifting many boats
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201370
80
90
100
110
BiH
Croatia
Cyprus
Greece
Montenegro
Serbia
Slovenia
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GDP (2008 = 100)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, UNDP calculations.
Social dimension: Unemployment rates—high and rising . . .
BiH Greece Serbia Montenegro Croatia Cyprus0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database, ECOFIN, national statistical offices.
. . . Especially for vulnerable groups
BiH FYRoM Serbia Montenegro Croatia Albania
62%
55%
43%
37% 36%
27%
54%53%
49%44%
65%
23%
29%31%
23%20%
14% 13%
Youth
Roma
National
Unemployment rates (2011)
Sources: ILO, national statistical offices, UNDP/EU/World Bank Roma vulnerability database.
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Human development index (HDI): What’s behind the numbers?
• The HDI was created by Mahbub ul Haq and Amartya Sen in 1990
• It is a composite statistic of national averages for:– Life expectancy– Education attainment– Gross national income per-capita
• Countries are ranked into four tiers:– Very high human development– High human development– Medium human development– Low human development
Mahbub ul Haq
Amartya Sen
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National HDIs (2014): Montenegro, its neighbours, and others
Norway (1)
USA (5)
Germany (6)
Austria (21)
Slovenia (25)
Italy (26)
Croatia (47)
Montenegro (51)
Romania (54)
Russia (57)
Bulgaria (58)
Serbia (77)
BiH (86)
China (91)
Albania (95)
0.944
0.914
0.911
0.881
0.874
0.872
0.812
0.789
0.785
0.778
0.777
0.745
0.731
0.719
0.716
High human development
Very high hu-man devel-
opment
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.
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National HDIs—UNDP programme countries (2014)
Montenegro (51)
Belarus (53)
Turkey (69)
Kazakhstan (70)
Azerbaijan (76)
Serbia (77)
Georgia (79)
Ukraine (83)
FYRoM (84)
BiH (86)
Armenia (87)
Albania (95)
Turkmenistan (103)
Moldova (114)
Uzbekistan (116)
Kyrgyzstan (125)
Tajikistan (133)
0.789
0.786
0.759
0.757
0.747
0.745
0.744
0.734
0.732
0.731
0.73
0.716
0.698
0.663
0.661
0.628
0.607
Medium human development
High human development
Region’s only low-income country
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.
Europe and Central Asia: Relatively good performance . . .
Latin Amer-ica, Carib-
bean
Europe, Central Asia
East Asia, Pacific
World Arab States South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
0.740 0.7380.703 0.702
0.682
0.588
0.502
Regional HDIs (2014)
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.
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. . . But HDI improvements are slow, compared to other regions
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia East Asia, Pacific
Arab states Latin America, Caribbean
Europe and Central Asia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0% 1990-2000 2000-2008 2008-2013
Average annual growth in national human development index scores (regional averages). Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.
For more information, please see:
http://hdr.undp.org/en/2014-report
ben.slay@undp.org
Thank you very much!