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Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and

Building Resilience

Ben SlayUNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and CIS

Podgorica, 11 September 2014

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Presentation topics

• Report– Global– Regional

• Human development index rankings– Montenegro– Neighbouring

countries

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Report: Core messages• Human development is not only about enlarging

people’s choices to lead a healthy, long life, to be educated and to enjoy a decent standard of living. It is also about ensuring that these choices are secure. And that requires us to understand—and tackle—vulnerability.

-- Khalid Malik (Director, UNDP-HDRO)• Reducing vulnerability means:– Reducing inequality– Building resilience to shocks/reversals

• Natural disasters• Socio-economic, health shocks

– Better global governance, more collective action

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“Structural vulnerability”

Who is vulnerable? To what? Why?The poor, workers in the

informal sector, the socially excluded

Economic, health shocks

Limited capabilities

Women, the disabled, migrants, minorities, children

and youth, the elderly

Natural disasters, climate change,

industrial hazards

Position in life cycle,

society

Individuals, households, communities, regions,

countries

Conflict, civil unrest

Policies, institutions

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Global vulnerability indicators—Shares of world population living, working:

80%

30%

21%

12%

With inadequate social protection

In, or close to, multi-dimensional poverty

In informal, precarious jobs

In chronic hunger

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Response: Build resilience along three thematic dimensions

• Universalism:– Universal access to quality basic services– Decent employment– Social protection

• Social cohesion and inclusion:– Non-discrimination, access to justice– Special attention to vulnerable groups

• Disaster risk management:– Early warning systems– “Build back better”

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The global governance response: Before, and after, 2015

• By 2015: Meet the Millennium Development Goals—and the Hyogo Framework for Action– MDGs (2000-2015): Global poverty risk reduction framework– HFA (2005-2015): Global disaster risk reduction framework

• Post-2015:– Sustainable Development Goals that integrate:

• Social, economic, environmental dimensions of sustainable development

• Policies/programming for development, resilience, reductions in vulnerability

– Key events:• UN Summit on the post-2015 development agenda (September 2015)• World Humanitarian summit (regional consultations, 2014-2015)

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Regional dimension: These issues matter—especially in the Balkans

• Macroeconomic stagnation• Large issues of exclusion

– Labour market– Ethnicity (Roma)

• Social protection systems under stress– Large informal sectors– Demographic trends– Fiscal constraints

• Natural disasters, climate risk– May 2014 flooding– Longer term:

• Rising Adriatic sea levels?• More extreme weather events?

Growth is not lifting many boats

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201370

80

90

100

110

BiH

Croatia

Cyprus

Greece

Montenegro

Serbia

Slovenia

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GDP (2008 = 100)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, UNDP calculations.

Social dimension: Unemployment rates—high and rising . . .

BiH Greece Serbia Montenegro Croatia Cyprus0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database, ECOFIN, national statistical offices.

. . . Especially for vulnerable groups

BiH FYRoM Serbia Montenegro Croatia Albania

62%

55%

43%

37% 36%

27%

54%53%

49%44%

65%

23%

29%31%

23%20%

14% 13%

Youth

Roma

National

Unemployment rates (2011)

Sources: ILO, national statistical offices, UNDP/EU/World Bank Roma vulnerability database.

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Human development index (HDI): What’s behind the numbers?

• The HDI was created by Mahbub ul Haq and Amartya Sen in 1990

• It is a composite statistic of national averages for:– Life expectancy– Education attainment– Gross national income per-capita

• Countries are ranked into four tiers:– Very high human development– High human development– Medium human development– Low human development

Mahbub ul Haq

Amartya Sen

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National HDIs (2014): Montenegro, its neighbours, and others

Norway (1)

USA (5)

Germany (6)

Austria (21)

Slovenia (25)

Italy (26)

Croatia (47)

Montenegro (51)

Romania (54)

Russia (57)

Bulgaria (58)

Serbia (77)

BiH (86)

China (91)

Albania (95)

0.944

0.914

0.911

0.881

0.874

0.872

0.812

0.789

0.785

0.778

0.777

0.745

0.731

0.719

0.716

High human development

Very high hu-man devel-

opment

Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

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National HDIs—UNDP programme countries (2014)

Montenegro (51)

Belarus (53)

Turkey (69)

Kazakhstan (70)

Azerbaijan (76)

Serbia (77)

Georgia (79)

Ukraine (83)

FYRoM (84)

BiH (86)

Armenia (87)

Albania (95)

Turkmenistan (103)

Moldova (114)

Uzbekistan (116)

Kyrgyzstan (125)

Tajikistan (133)

0.789

0.786

0.759

0.757

0.747

0.745

0.744

0.734

0.732

0.731

0.73

0.716

0.698

0.663

0.661

0.628

0.607

Medium human development

High human development

Region’s only low-income country

Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

Europe and Central Asia: Relatively good performance . . .

Latin Amer-ica, Carib-

bean

Europe, Central Asia

East Asia, Pacific

World Arab States South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

0.740 0.7380.703 0.702

0.682

0.588

0.502

Regional HDIs (2014)

Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

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. . . But HDI improvements are slow, compared to other regions

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia East Asia, Pacific

Arab states Latin America, Caribbean

Europe and Central Asia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0% 1990-2000 2000-2008 2008-2013

Average annual growth in national human development index scores (regional averages). Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.

For more information, please see:

http://hdr.undp.org/en/2014-report

ben.slay@undp.org

Thank you very much!