Post on 13-Jan-2016
Summary Report of Working Group on Impacts
Project ABC Science Team Meeting
April 5, 2005
UNEP-Tongji Institute, Shanghai
Outline
• Issues: what are the most important impacts of ABCs, and the most important research needs related to them?
• Proposed workshop on impact studies
• Integrating capacity building with research
Issues
• ABCs have impacts on:1. Agriculture
2. Health
3. Water
4. Unmanaged ecosystems
• Cross-cutting issues:• Historical analysis vs. projections• Regional coupled models
Agriculture
• Highest priority for research supported by Project ABC– Draw on strengths and interests of Project ABC
science team: impacts of ABCs on climate, dry deposition, etc.
– Impact of ABCs on monsoon (hence, on agriculture) is a new and unique issue
– Opportunity to build on team’s experience while entering into new research areas
• E.g., collect integrated meteorological/agricultural/ socioeconomic data (precedent: biofuels survey)
Agriculture (continued)
• Initial study sites:1. Ganges basin
2. Yangtze basin
• Why these?– Much research to build on
– Access to data (though some question marks)• Should locate field sites near existing weather stations
– Climatic and socioeconomic conditions vary, yet more manageable than entire countries
– Because river basins, natural unit for looking at water issues, too
Water
• Closely connected to agriculture, but did not discuss in depth in the working group
• Growing competition between agriculture and other sectors– Drying due to ABCs intensifies scarcity and
thus conflict
• How easily can populations/land uses change location, and what are adjustment costs?
Health
• Impacts of aerosols on human health are obviously important
• But: other groups already working on, though maybe not as much as should
• Contributions of Project ABC:– Better emissions inventories for
epidemiologists/dispersion modelers to work with– Regional models: provide better estimates of
pollution levels than “local” models
Unmanaged ecosystems
• Forests, wetlands, grasslands, oceans, …• Potentially large impacts, but not as well
understood as in case of agriculture– Products (commercial and subsistence), ecosystem
services, tourism, etc.– Especially important for some Project ABC countries
(e.g., Maldives)
• With some, data collection a challenge – Collecting radiation measurements in forests (though
being done at some sites in China)
Historical analysis vs. Projections
• Advantages of latter:– More convincing to policy community (more
“real”: talking about impacts that have already occurred, vs. speculative ones that might occur in distant future)
– Before can forecast, need to validate models against historical data
– Roots the agricultural and socioeconomic research in observations instead of assumed parameters and simulation methods
Regional coupled models
• Pertinent for impact studies: provide finer spatial resolution
• But: newer and not as well tested as global models (though efforts underway)
• Project ABC could look at:– How do estimates of impacts vary among models?– What features should models have to make them
more useful for impact studies?• E.g., date of onset and length of monsoon
Miscellaneous
• Links among issues important: e.g., agriculture and health– If ABCs harm agriculture, then malnutrition is
more likely
• Biomass burning: fires used for clearing fields
• Impacts depend on institutions and policies (restrictions on land use)
Getting started
• Workshop later in 2005• Commission papers from individuals
– Review pertinent literature– Investigate issues of data access– Offer suggestions on studies to be done
• 8 (?) papers:– Agriculture, water, health: 1 each for China,
India– Also papers on oceans, forests
Capacity building
• Principle: should not be broadcast or add-on, but rather an integral component of research
• Successful models: APN, International START, SANDEE/EEPSEA
• Possibilities, in addition to learning that occurs through collaboration:– Short courses (for research team)– Fellowships (S <-> S, N <-> S)