Summary Report of Working Group on Impacts

Project ABC Science Team Meeting

April 5, 2005

UNEP-Tongji Institute, Shanghai

Outline

• Issues: what are the most important impacts of ABCs, and the most important research needs related to them?

• Proposed workshop on impact studies

• Integrating capacity building with research

Issues

• ABCs have impacts on:1. Agriculture

2. Health

3. Water

4. Unmanaged ecosystems

• Cross-cutting issues:• Historical analysis vs. projections• Regional coupled models

Agriculture

• Highest priority for research supported by Project ABC– Draw on strengths and interests of Project ABC

science team: impacts of ABCs on climate, dry deposition, etc.

– Impact of ABCs on monsoon (hence, on agriculture) is a new and unique issue

– Opportunity to build on team’s experience while entering into new research areas

• E.g., collect integrated meteorological/agricultural/ socioeconomic data (precedent: biofuels survey)

Agriculture (continued)

• Initial study sites:1. Ganges basin

2. Yangtze basin

• Why these?– Much research to build on

– Access to data (though some question marks)• Should locate field sites near existing weather stations

– Climatic and socioeconomic conditions vary, yet more manageable than entire countries

– Because river basins, natural unit for looking at water issues, too

Water

• Closely connected to agriculture, but did not discuss in depth in the working group

• Growing competition between agriculture and other sectors– Drying due to ABCs intensifies scarcity and

thus conflict

• How easily can populations/land uses change location, and what are adjustment costs?

Health

• Impacts of aerosols on human health are obviously important

• But: other groups already working on, though maybe not as much as should

• Contributions of Project ABC:– Better emissions inventories for

epidemiologists/dispersion modelers to work with– Regional models: provide better estimates of

pollution levels than “local” models

Unmanaged ecosystems

• Forests, wetlands, grasslands, oceans, …• Potentially large impacts, but not as well

understood as in case of agriculture– Products (commercial and subsistence), ecosystem

services, tourism, etc.– Especially important for some Project ABC countries

(e.g., Maldives)

• With some, data collection a challenge – Collecting radiation measurements in forests (though

being done at some sites in China)

Historical analysis vs. Projections

• Advantages of latter:– More convincing to policy community (more

“real”: talking about impacts that have already occurred, vs. speculative ones that might occur in distant future)

– Before can forecast, need to validate models against historical data

– Roots the agricultural and socioeconomic research in observations instead of assumed parameters and simulation methods

Regional coupled models

• Pertinent for impact studies: provide finer spatial resolution

• But: newer and not as well tested as global models (though efforts underway)

• Project ABC could look at:– How do estimates of impacts vary among models?– What features should models have to make them

more useful for impact studies?• E.g., date of onset and length of monsoon

Miscellaneous

• Links among issues important: e.g., agriculture and health– If ABCs harm agriculture, then malnutrition is

more likely

• Biomass burning: fires used for clearing fields

• Impacts depend on institutions and policies (restrictions on land use)

Getting started

• Workshop later in 2005• Commission papers from individuals

– Review pertinent literature– Investigate issues of data access– Offer suggestions on studies to be done

• 8 (?) papers:– Agriculture, water, health: 1 each for China,

India– Also papers on oceans, forests

Capacity building

• Principle: should not be broadcast or add-on, but rather an integral component of research

• Successful models: APN, International START, SANDEE/EEPSEA

• Possibilities, in addition to learning that occurs through collaboration:– Short courses (for research team)– Fellowships (S <-> S, N <-> S)