The Climate Future

Trends

• The world has about 7.3 billion people right now….

• When I was born there were less than 3 billion people…..

Trends• I was born in 1950….– Carbon emissions were

about 1.3 gigatons/year– The CO2 level was 310

ppm

• Now….– Carbon emissions are

~9 gigatons/year– CO2 April 19, 2015 was

403.05 ppm

62000 billion in 2014

• Highest March temperature in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.05°C (0.09°F).

• The Northern Hemisphere had its second highest March temperature on record

• The first quarter of 2015 was the warmest on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.82°C (1.48°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.05°C (0.09°F).

• The average global land surface temperature was also record high for the January–March period, at 1.59°C (2.86°F).

Will we run out of oil?

• The world consumes about 90 billion barrels of oil year.

• World proven oil reserves are about 1300 bbl

• BUT!– Reserves depend on

PRICE and technology!

– With a higher price world reserves are much larger….

Will we run out…coal?

• Annual use is about 7 billion tons• There are over 900 billon tons of proven

reserves

The Bottom Line• Politics, not production, is firmly

in control of our oil supplies.– It is in the interest of the

suppliers to keep market share.

• There is lots of oil. – We are not going to run out

anytime soon.

• Technology keeps doing unexpected things.

• The fundamental problem is geographic and thus political. – The orientation of continents 100

million years ago when most of the oil was made…..We are not going to drill ourselves out of that…..!

Then there is Insolation

Insolation has been dropping, but we are getting warmer

The problem is greenhouse gasses

Greenhouse Trends

• With increases in CO2 we get substantial warming.

• Warming of the oceans– Reduce the solubility of CO2 in the

oceans

– Allow methane clathrates to melt releasing more methane

• Warming of the polar regions– Methane and CO2 released from

permafrost regions.

• Warming is becoming self re-enforcing….

2 x CO2 world

• The good news is that the pulse of CO2 is too fast for the climate system to come to equilibrium– Slow responding parts like

the major ice sheets would not be able to melt fast enough

– Fast responding parts (permafrost, shallow ocean, seasons) will change a lot.

2 x CO2 world

• 560 PPM CO2….About 2C warmer than now. Like the world 10 million years ago– Reduced arctic sea ice– Few mountain glaciers– Forests moving north– More water vapor and clouds– Stronger monsoons??? Greener North Africa?– More acid ocean– Somewhere between 1-2 meters sea level rise this

century…..maybe more.

Bad News About Methane

2 x CO2 world

4 x CO2 world

• 1100 PPM CO2….About 5-7C warmer than now. Like the world 50 million years ago– No arctic sea ice– No mountain glaciers– Unstable Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets– Forests on the shores of the Arctic Ocean– More water vapor and clouds– Stronger monsoons??? Greener North Africa?– More acid ocean– Somewhere between 1-2 meter sea level rise this

century…..with much more to come later.

4 x CO2 world

The Bottom Line

• Do you like Sea Level where it is?

1 Meter Sea Level Rise

2 Meters Sea Level Rise

Cities at Risk•Tampa•New Orleans•Miami •Galveston•Houston•Charleston •And many more….

3 Meters Sea Level Rise

4 Meters Sea Level Rise

5 Meters Sea Level Rise

Can we have a different Future?

• Can we limit the input of fossil carbon?• What will be the methane effect of

thawing permafrost?

What can you do?

• Be informed• Care about the amount of carbon you put into

the atmosphere• Encourage non-carbon based energy sources– Nuclear–Wind and solar