Post on 13-Apr-2017
AUSTRALIAN RETAIL LANDSCAPE 2016
Cash rate: 2%
CPI: 1.7%
Household consumption 0.8%
Household savings: 7.6%
Unemployment: 6%
Annualised GDP: 3%
AUSTRALIA: KEY STATISTICS
CONSUMER LED SPENDING CREATING A REBALANCED, RESILIENT ECONOMY
SIZE, SCOPE & DIRECTION OF AUSTRALIAN RETAIL
FINAL HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE $924B: non-discretionary subject to higher inflation than discretionary
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Other
Clothing &
footwear
Furnishings & hh equip
Com
munications
Recreation
Hotels, cafes, rests
Tobacco
Alcohol
Vehicles
Operate vehicles
Food
Transport
Insurance/ fin serv
Education
Health
Utilities
Rent & related
6.2%
8.7%
7.1%
8.5%
5.2%5.3%
4.1%
3.2%
4.4%
3.1%
5.2%4.8%
3.6%
2.4%
3.2%
1.9%
4.8%
$199
$23
$59
$43
$83
$29
$91
$46
$19$16$16
$62
$91
$21
$39
$29
$60
4.8%
1.9%
3.2%
2.4%
3.6%
4.8%5.2%
3.1%
4.4%
3.2%
4.1%
5.3% 5.2%
8.5%
7.1%
8.7%
6.2%
Source: ABS National Accounts, September 2015
$ bi
llion
s5 Yr C
AG
R
Discretionary 53%
Non - Discretionary 47%
TOTAL DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURE $398B: after food, recreation & experiences highest value & growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Other
Clothing &
footwear
Furnishings & hh equip
Com
munications
Recreation
Hotels, cafes, rests
Tobacco
Alcohol
Vehicles
Operate vehicles
Food
4.1%
3.2%
4.4%
3.1%
5.2%
4.8%
3.6%
2.4%
3.2%
1.9%
4.8%
$91
$46
$19$16$16
$62
$91
$21
$39
$29
$60
4.8%
1.9%
3.2%
2.4%
3.6%
4.8%
5.2%
3.1%
4.4%
3.2%
4.1%
Source: ABS National Accounts, September 2015
$ bi
llion
s5 Yr C
AG
R:
TOTAL RETAIL $292B: Australians still obsessed with home improvement, increasingly
living an eat-out lifestyle & shopping online
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Supermarket
Liquor
Specialist food
Furniture, floor, h'ware
Electrical
Hardw
are & g'dn
Clothing
Footwear &
acc'ry
Dep't stores
N'paper &
books
Other recreational
Pharmacy &
cosmetic
Other retail
Cafes, rest's, cater
Takeaway
4%
7.2%
5.8%
4.2%
1.4%
-4.1%
-0.1%
1.6%
2.9%
6.1%
1%
3.5%
1.1%
4%4.2%
$16
$24
$16$16
$5$3
$19
$8
$15$18
$20
$14
$9$11
$99
4.2% 4%
1.1%
3.5%
1%
6.1%
2.9%
1.6%
-0.1%
-4.1%
1.4%
4.2%
5.8%
7.2%
4%
Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015
$ bi
llion
s5 Yr C
AG
R:
TOTAL RETAIL $292B: Australians still obsessed with home improvement
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Supermarket
Liquor
Specialist food
Furniture, floor, h'ware
Electrical
Hardw
are & g'dn
Clothing
Footwear &
acc'ry
Dep't stores
N'paper &
books
Other recreational
Pharmacy &
cosmetic
Other retail
Cafes, rest's, cater
Takeaway
4%
7.2%
5.8%
4.2%
1.4%
-4.1%
-0.1%
1.6%
2.9%
6.1%
1%
3.5%
1.1%
4%4.2%
$16
$24
$16$16
$5$3
$19
$8
$15$18
$20
$14
$9$11
$99
4.2% 4%
1.1%
3.5%
1%
6.1%
2.9%
1.6%
-0.1%
-4.1%
1.4%
4.2%
5.8%
7.2%
4%
Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015
$ bi
llion
s5 Yr C
AG
R:
Australia’s love affair with property has seen price to income ratios match the highest in the world
Many are questioning not just if, but when the bubble might burst…
THREE REASONS HOME IMPROVEMENT WILL REMAIN SOLID
we enjoy relatively positive economic conditions
OFFSET SAVINGS ACCOUNTS
Offset accounts unaccounted for Relatively stable unemployment (c. 6%) Record low interest rates
SOLID & COMPETITIVE WORKFORCE
EASE OF DEBT SERVICING
LOWER DEBT TO PRICE RATIOS C. 2007-08 STABLE HOUSEHOLDS
LOW COSTS OF SERVICING DEBBT
TOTAL RETAIL $292B: Australians increasingly living an eat-out lifestyle
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Supermarket
Liquor
Specialist food
Furniture, floor, h'ware
Electrical
Hardw
are & g'dn
Clothing
Footwear &
acc'ry
Dep't stores
N'paper &
books
Other recreational
Pharmacy &
cosmetic
Other retail
Cafes, rest's, cater
Takeaway
4%
7.2%
5.8%
4.2%
1.4%
-4.1%
-0.1%
1.6%
2.9%
6.1%
1%
3.5%
1.1%
4%4.2%
$16
$24
$16$16
$5$3
$19
$8
$15$18
$20
$14
$9$11
$99
4.2% 4%
1.1%
3.5%
1%
6.1%
2.9%
1.6%
-0.1%
-4.1%
1.4%
4.2%
5.8%
7.2%
4%
Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015
$ bi
llion
s5 Yr C
AG
R:
Eating out & up is on the rise…
THREE REASONS EATING OUT IS ON THE RISE
Our love of food is ever growing
DIVERSITY
Cultural diversity has exploded food choice
Millennial consumer outsourcing services
Increasing sophistication
SHIFT TO DIFM HIGHER EXPECTATIONS
EXPERIENCE CONVENIENCE PREMIUMISATION
TOTAL RETAIL $292B: And online is on the rise
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Supermarket
Liquor
Specialist food
Furniture, floor, h'ware
Electrical
Hardw
are & g'dn
Clothing
Footwear &
acc'ry
Dep't stores
N'paper &
books
Other recreational
Pharmacy &
cosmetic
Other retail
Cafes, rest's, cater
Takeaway
4%
7.2%
5.8%
4.2%
1.4%
-4.1%
-0.1%
1.6%
2.9%
6.1%
1%
3.5%
1.1%
4%4.2%
$16
$24
$16$16
$5$3
$19
$8
$15$18
$20
$14
$9$11
$99
4.2% 4%
1.1%
3.5%
1%
6.1%
2.9%
1.6%
-0.1%
-4.1%
1.4%
4.2%
5.8%
7.2%
4%
Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015
$ bi
llion
s5 Yr C
AG
R:
Online retail continues to grow, estimated at $22.1bn 2014, a 7% increase on the year prior
THREE REASONS ONLINE CONTINUES TO TRANSFORM RETAIL
We are increasingly connected
CONVENIENCE
International delivery standards reaching Australia
Increasing expectation of recognition Ultimate accessibility
PERSONALISATION EASE
INSTANT GRATIFICATION RELEVANCE EXPERIENCE
WHO’S WINNING, WHO’S LOSING & WHY?
Winner: FY15 $9.5bn revenue, $1.1bn EBIT 324 outlets
Loser: FY15 $954m sales, $245m losses, 62 stores
Piggy in the middle: approx $2bn revenue, $100m EBIT, 366 locations
HOME IMPROVEMENT: APPROX $40BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
$9.5bn revenue, $1.1bn EBIT 324 outlets
approx $2bn revenue, $100m EBIT, 366 locations
FY15 $954m sales, $245m losses, 62 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
DOMINANT BREADTH & DEPTH SERVICE UNDERESTIMATED CATEGORY
BASICS
Winner: Est $4bn revenue, $300m EBIT 200 stores
Loser: Est $1.5bn revenue, $75m EBIT 650 stores
Piggy in the middle: approx $150m revenue, $15m EBIT, 77 stores
LIQUOR RETAIL: APPROX $18BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
Est $4bn revenue, $300m EBIT 200 stores
approx $150m revenue, $15m EBIT, 77 stores
Est $1.5bn revenue, $75m EBIT 650 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
DOMINANT BREADTH & DEPTH
SERVICE CONVENIENCE PRICING WITHOUT THE CHOICE
Winner: $4.55bn revenue, $432m EBIT 207 stores
Loser: $3.44bn revenue, $90m EBIT, 308 stores
Piggy in the middle: $4.11bn revenue, $114 EBIT, 152 stores
DEPARTMENT STORE RETAIL: APPROX $18BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
$4.55bn revenue, $432m EBIT 207 stores
$3.44bn revenue, $90m EBIT, 308 stores
$4.11bn revenue, $114 EBIT, 152 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
VELOCITY VOLUME MODEL RANGE, BRAND & PRICE CONFUSION DEMOCRATISED FASHION
Winner: Est $1bn revenue, 8 x 30,000 sqm outlets
Loser: Est $200m sales, 73 stores
Piggy in the middle: Approx $300m revenue, 60 stores
HOME & OFFICE FURNITURE: APPROX $8BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
Est $1bn revenue, 8 x 30,000 sqm outlets
Approx $300m revenue, 60 stores Est $200m sales,
73 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
CATEGORY KILLER HOME FASHION PRICE FIGHTER
Winner: $3.45bn revenue, $199 EBIT 171 stores
Loser: Est $1bn, $400m DEBT, 325 stores
Piggy in the middle: est $1.5bn revenue, 230 stores
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS (EXCL WHITE GOODS) APPROX $15.3BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
$3.45bn revenue, $199 EBIT171 stores
est $1.5bn, 230 stores Est $1bn, $400m DEBT, 325 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
RANGE & PRICE AUTHORITY GENERALIST CONFUSED MARKET POSITION
Winner: $750m revenue, 250 stores
Loser: $250m revenue, 210 stores
Piggy in the middle: $360m revenue, 303 stores
CAR AFTERMARKET PARTS & ACCESS: APPROX $5.7BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
$750m revenue, 250 stores $360m revenue, 303 stores $250m revenue, 210 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
DOMINANT RANGE WIDTH & PRICE PERCEPTION ASSISTED SERVICE INCONSISTENT
Winner: $100M+ revenue, 61 stores
Loser: Est $150m revenue, 160 stores
Piggy in the middle: Est $35m revenue, 3 stores
BEAUTY: APPROX $5BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
$100M+ revenue, 61 stores
Est $35m revenue, 3 stores
Est $150m revenue160 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
BRAND EXCLUSIVES INTERNATIONAL CACHE CONVENIENCE
Winner: Est $130m revenue first 12mths6 stores
Loser: $237m revenue, 157 stores
Piggy in the middle: approx $100m revenue, 120 stores
FASHION: APPROX $21BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
Est $130m revenue first 12mths 6 stores
approx $100m revenue, 120 stores
$237m revenue,157 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
EUROPEAN FAST FASHION CACHE LOCAL TREND DISPOSABLE
Winner: $120M revenue, 40 stores
Loser: $220m, 128 large format stores
Piggy in the middle: $220m, 130 stores
FOOTWEAR: APPROX $5BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
$120M revenue, 40 stores$220m, 130 stores $220m, 128 large format stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
MOST WANTED BRANDS & FASHION FIT & FUNCTION SELF SERVICE
Winner: $700m revenue, 550 stores
Piggy in the middle: Est $600m revenue, 600 stores
Loser: $2.3bn revenue, 900 stores
TAKEAWAY FOOD: APPROX $14.8BN: WINNERS & LOSERS
WINNER
$700m revenue, $91M EBIT550 stores
Est $600m revenue, 600 stores
$2.3bn revenue, 900 stores
PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER
FAST CASUAL, MOBILE DINING
INCREMENTAL CHANGE Q,S,C,V
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES?
1. Big box, small box, or online, put the consumer first
2. Always think about the experience you are delivering, whether it’s simplicity & ease or immersion & desire
3. At the bottom of the market verticality, range efficiencies & process simplicity win
4. Above the bottom, authority, wanted brands, & services win
IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES
THANK YOU