Jennie Hoffman

EcoAdapt

Climatic change is affecting all ecosystems, and will continue to do

so for centuries, so…

• We need to incorporate climatic change into long-term planning – Minimize risk of wasting time, money, and

effort

– Maximize likelihood of success

Trend CertaintyWhat this means for ecosystems

and peopleWhat this means for your work

Air temperature

Very High

Rain

High

Lake temperature

High

Growing season

High

Lake level

? Medium

Great Lakes climate impacts worksheet

But varies by season and region

Trend CertaintyWhat this means for ecosystems

and peopleWhat this means for your work

Air temperature

Very High

Drier summers; increased drought likelihood; deadly heat waves; species range changes (including disease-causing organisms!)

Rain

High

More runoff and flooding in certain seasons; risk of transfer of invasive spp to new places; possible seasonal dilution of pollution

Lake temperature

HighGreater risk of harmful algal blooms; some species favored over others; altered toxicity

Growing season

HighMore ag productivity, unless droughts and floods win out; benefits some species over others

Lake level

? Medium

Phragmites world; tough infrastructure issues; remobilization of lakebed pollutants

Great Lakes climate impacts worksheet

HydrologicHydrologic& Vegetation& VegetationModelsModels

Climate modelsClimate models

DataDataEcosystem Ecosystem responsesresponses

??

HydrologicHydrologic& Vegetation& VegetationModelsModels

Climate modelsClimate models

DataDataEcosystem Ecosystem responsesresponses

??EconomicsEconomics

Laws, Laws, Policies,Policies,

InstitutionsInstitutions

Societal Societal responseresponse

All climate models say things will get warmer; they disagree on just how much warmer

Models disagree on whether things get wetter or drier overall

??

Scenario 1: It rains hard

all day

Scenario 4:It rains hard,

but only briefly

Scenario 3:It rains lightly

Scenario 2: it doesn’t rain

Core actions/strategies

Contingent actions/strategies

Situation 1

•Your pet is sick

•9 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment

•The treatment is established, effective, has few side effects and is affordable.

Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet

Situation 2

•Your pet is sick

•4 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment

•The treatment is established, effective, has few side effects and is affordable.

Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet

Situation 3

•Your pet is sick

•9 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment

•There is no proven treatment, but there’s an expensive experimental drug with uncertain risks and effectiveness.

Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet

Situation 4

•Your pet is sick

•4 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment

•There is no proven treatment, but there’s an expensive experimental drug with uncertain risks and effectiveness.

Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet

Situation 5

•Your child is sick

•9 of 10 doctors say she will die without treatment

•There is no proven treatment, but there’s an expensive experimental drug with uncertain risks and effectiveness.

Do you opt for:•Giving her the drug•Not giving her the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s child

Is Your Coastal Restoration Project

Climate-Smart?Some Guidelines for the

Great Lakes

download a copy at:

http://www.nwf.org/en/Global-Warming/~/media/PDFs/Global%20Warming/Climate-Smart-Conservation/FINAL%20Restoring%20the%20Great%20Lakes%20Coastal%20Future%202011.ashx

Climate-Smart Planning Framework

1. Identify restoration goals and targets

GLRI Principal Actions:• Improve aquatic ecosystem resiliency

• Enhance wetlands, wetland associated uplands, high priority coastal, upland, and inland habitat

• Maintain, improve, enhance populations of native species

• Restore habitat functioning in AOCs

2. Identify restoration project approaches

Reduce existing stressors

Improve terrestrial/aquatic connectivity

Protect key ecosystem features

Maintain and improve diversity

3. Assess vulnerability to climate change

2. Sensitivity3. Exposure4. Adaptive capacity5. Determine vulnerability

Tools include: NatureServe Vulnerability Index, Climate Wizard, NOAA Digital Coast, NSPECT

Training Opportunities

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Training Course• Collaboration among NWF, FWS, NPS, and NOAA• Next course: November 15-19, 2011 in Anchorage,

AK - Space available!• Upcoming in Ohio – stay tuned!

For more resources on Vulnerability Assessments or to Register for next course visit

• http://training.fws.gov/CSP/Resources/climate_change/vulnerability.html

Training Opportunities (con’t)

Safeguarding Wildlife from Climate Change Web Conference Series– similar to a graduate seminar, last about 1 hour, and

feature an interactive question-and-answer session– topics include: everything from community-based

adaptation to species conservation in a landscape context

Find upcoming webinars and archived webinars here:

• http://training.fws.gov/CSP/Resources/climate_change/description.html

4. Identify climate-smart management options

Strategies to reduce sensitivity Strategies to

reduce exposure

Strategies to enhance adaptive capacity

5. Select and implement management options

Prioritize options by importance/urgency

Prioritize options by likely benefits/performance

Prioritize options by costs/feasibility

6. Monitor, review, and revise

Incorporate new science

Evaluate effectiveness of management efforts

Revisit one or more of the previous steps

Emily Whittaker, Yellow Dog Watershed Preserve

Photo by Alexis Raney.Photo by Alexis Raney.

Yellow Dog Yellow Dog Watershed Watershed PreservePreserve

•Working to Working to incorporate incorporate climate climate considerations considerations into mine permit into mine permit conditions.conditions.Top photo by Bill KinjorskiTop photo by Bill Kinjorski

Onondaga Creek Conservation Council

Planting Day

West Grand Boulevard

Collaborative

Considering Climate isn’t new work to be done, it is a new way of working

• Think about how your work could be impacted by the effects of climate change

• Assess the information you have• Brainstorm how you can incorporate climate

adaptation activities based on what you know about climate change

• Start taking action, monitor your effectiveness, and talk with others to ensure your work will provide the desired impact

Climate Adaptation Grants Program

Projects to protect and restore wetlands; On-the-ground restoration activities that incorporate climate adaption and include an

action component to create permanent change Advocating for low-impact solutions to community stormwater issues; Participation in land use planning and zoning that engages climate related

considerations; Participation in watershed planning to introduce climate related components; Watch-dogging and participating in the development, implementation, and

enforcement of local, state, provincial, and federal aquatic habitat protection regulations as they relate to climate;

Non-partisan voter education, voter registration, and candidate forums; Advocating for naturally functioning river and coastal ecosystems; Reducing polluted runoff; and Launching special initiatives or creating unique opportunities to strengthen citizen

involvement in aquatic habitat protection and restoration related to climate adaptation.

Jill Ryan, Executive Director231.348.8200 jill@freshwaterfuture.org

View our Climate RFP at:www.freshwaterfuture.org/grants

Thank you Kresge Foundation for your support and EcoAdapt for your expertise!