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Reading the polls
What to expect in 2015?
Tuesday 10 June
#NCVO2015
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Welcome
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What does the sector expect?
Charlotte Taylor, NCVO
@Charlotte_NCVO
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Charities Forecast poll
What do you believe is the most likely outcome of the next
General Election in May 2015?
Sample: 717
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Charities Forecast poll
What do you believe is the most likely outcome of the next
General Election in May 2015?
Sample: 717
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Office sweepstake
Labour majority Labour minority Labour / Lib Dem coalition
Conservative majority Conservative minority Conservative / Lib Demcoalition
What do you believe is the most likely outcome of the next
General Election in May 2015?
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Reading the polls
Tom Mludzinski, ComRes
@tom_ComRes
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Reading the polls: what to expect in 2015?Tom Mludzinski,
Head of Political Polling, ComRes
@tom_ComRes
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2010 RESULT
GE2010: hardly a ringing endorsement
Party Vote share Change HoC seats Change
Con 36.1% +3.7% 306 +94
Lab 29.0% -6.2% 258 -91
Lib Dem 23.0% +1.0% 57 -5
304
257
56 33
Current seat distribution
Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other
Target for majority: 326 Conservatives need net gain of 22
Labour need net gain of 69
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THE BIG QUESTIONS
Two questions that everyone is seeking to answer:
1. How solid is the Labour lead? 2. What will happen to UKIP?
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0
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Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Jun-Dec 10:Avg. 3pt Con
lead
AVERAGE MONTHLY RATING
The story so far
Source: ComRes voting intention polls for The Independent, Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: all Britishadults intending to vote
Apr 12 - Apr 13:Avg. 8pt Lab lead
Jan 11 - Mar 12:Avg. 3pt Lab lead
May 13 - May 14:
Avg. 6pt Lab lead
30%
34%
9%
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Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
UKIP
AVERAGE MONTHLY RATINGUKIP
and the rise of UKIP
17%
30%
34%
9%
Source: ComRes voting intention polls for The Independent, Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: all British adults intending to vote
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RESULTS FROM VOTE 2014
Earthquake? Tremor?
24
257
27
8 9
European Parliamentary Election
Source: ComRes / The People; Base 2,007 British adults 18+, 2nd3rdApr 14
LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP Other
29
3113
17
10
Local Elections: Projected NationalShare
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WHY PEOPLE VOTED FOR UKIP
But why did it happen? Immigration was the top reason people voted UKIP
74%
59%
52%
39%33%
29%25%
21%18% 16%
13%
Britain needstighter
immigrationcontrols
I want Britainto leave EU
UKIP saywhat they
think
Labourdoesn't
represent me
Con Partydoesn't
represent meanymore
Other Partiesare all the
same
Nigel Farage Coalit iongovnt record
UKIP are notpart ofpolitical
establishment
DavidCameron
Gay marriage
10/10 importance of reasons for voting UKIP at European Election
Q. How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European
elections on Thursday? Please use a scale of 1-10 where 1 is not at all important and 10 is very important. Base:All adults saying they voted UKIP at the EP2014 elections (n=850)
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LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING FOR UKIP IN 2015
And what does it all mean for 2015?
10%
37%
36%
49%
54%
14%
GE2010 Convoters
EP 2014 UKIPvoters
10/10 Certain Likely (5-9/10) Unlikely (1-4/10)
Q. Thinking ahead to the General Election next year where MPs are elected to Parliament in Westminster, on a scale
of 1-10 how likely or unlikely are you to vote for each of the following political parties? UKIPBase: All adults saying they voted UKIP at the EP2014 elections (n=850), All adults saying they voted Conservative in
2010 (1,178)
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16
Men
Older
Ex-Conservatives
38% of UKIP supporters voted Conservative in2010, 10% Labour, 15% LibDem
Midlands and the South
Which also tend to be Tory areas
Read the Daily Mail or Telegraph
Not the Guardian!
More negative & grumpy
Europe is an issuebut even moreworried about
immigration & economy
So who are UKIP supporter (for Westminster elections)?
PROFILE OF UKIP VOTERS
33%32%
54% 51%
I am attracted to UKIPbecause they say what they
think
UKIP offers a realisticalternative political vision of
Britain
Straight-talkers*
Agree Disagree
Source: ComRes / The Independent; Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th13thApril 2014
88% of UKIP
supporters
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How solid is theLabour lead?
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CURRENT VOTING INTENTION OF 2010 VOTERS
Labour are hanging on to their voters, but where are the others going?
Source: ComRes voting intention polls for the Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: 10,534 British adults, aggregated over 6
waves of ComRes online voting intention polls, October 13 Mar 14
79%
3%
1% 5%
2% 9%
66%4%
17%
1%
2%10%
26%
28%
6%
11%
7%
21%
LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP Other Dont know
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Weaknesses
Only represent the interests
of the rich
- 51% Agree, 42% Disagree
More divided now than
under John Major
- 56% Agree, 23% Disagree
I feel I have personally
benefited from UK
economic growth over the
past six months
-Agree 11%, Disagree 71%
The economy and credibility
Strengths
Most likely to keep economy
growing
- Con 40% Lab 26%
Net economic trust
- Cameron/Osborne: -13/ -21
- Miliband/Balls: -35/ -43
Most trusted to negotiate on
Britains behalf with the rest
of the EU
- Con 39%, Lab 24%
CONSERVATIVE PARTY STRENGTHS
Leadership
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PARTIESUNFAVOURABLE OPINION
Detoxification hasnt worked for the Conservatives
Source: ComRes / Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday; Base 2,031 British adults 18+, 12 th13thFeb 14
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LEADERSFAVOURABLE OPINION
But Cameron is still an asset to his party, and Miliband is a weakness
Glamorous assistant to Cameron
Going the wrong way up a one way street
Source: ComRes / Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday; Base 2,031 British adults 18+, 12 th13thFeb 14
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Ed Miliband as Prime Minister?
A little scaredApprehensive
He doesnt inspire confidence as
an individualKeep to the left!
MILIBAND AMONG LABOUR VOTERS
Source: ComRes / Channel 4 Focus GroupsLib Dem voters in 2010, now voting Labour, 9thApril 2014
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Pound in your pocket and in touch
Strengths
Most likely to get the cost of
living down
- Lab 35% Con 26%
Most likely to make your
family better off
- Lab 41% Con 31%
The party most likely to
protect peoples jobs- Lab 39%, Con 23%
Weaknesses
Ed Miliband is turning out to bea good leader of the Labour
party
- Agree 24%, Disagree 45%
My family is more likely tobenefit from economic growth if
Ed Miliband becomes Prime
Minister in 2015 than if David
Cameron remains in office
- Agree 29%, Disagree 39%
Record economic optimism
- Jan 14 - 36% say economy has
improved in the last 3 months,
highest ever (since Oct 2010)
LABOUR PARTY STRENGTHS
Leadership
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Where will the battlelines for 2015 be
drawn?
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47%44%
42%
26% 25%23% 23% 21%
16% 16%
Keeping downthe cost ofeveryday
items, such asfood, energy
and travel
Controllingimmigration
Managing theNHS
Protecting theeconomicrecovery
Making thewelfare system
fairer
Reducingcrime and anti-
socialbehaviour
RedefiningBritain's
relationshipwith the EU
Improvinghousing
affordability
Reducing theGovernmentsbudget deficit
Improving theeducation
system
MOST IMPORTANT GOVNT PRIORITIES IN DECIDING WHO TO VOTE FOR AT GE2015
Cost of living is the number one issue in the marginals, but immigration important too
Q. Below is a list of priorities for a potential Government to have, please select the three which you wouldconsider most important when deciding who to vote for at a General Election? Base: adults in marginal
constituencies (n=1,038)
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PARTY MOST TRUSTED (MARGINALS POLLING)
Policy strengths and weaknesses on the big issues
20%17%
21%
34%
28%
11%
29%
18%
5%3%
5% 4%7%
37%
7% 8%
Keep down the cost ofeveryday items
Control immigration Manage the NHS Promote economicgrowth
LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP
Q. Which Party do you trust most to? Base: adults in marginal constituencies (n=1,038)
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PERSONAL FINANCES
Few feel that personal finances have improved in the last year, but some optimism
for the future
Source: ComRes / BBC Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 7th11thMarch 2014
Q1. Over the last 12 months would you say your personal financial situation has improved, got worse or stayed about the same? Q2. And do you think
your own personal financial situation will improve, get worse, or stay the same in the next 12 months?
28%
19%
51%
2%
The next year
17%
31%51%
1%
The lastyear
Improve Get worse Stay about the same Don't know
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COST OF LIVING
Utility bills and food shopping top public concerns
Source: ComRes / BBC Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 7 th11thMarch 2014CRQ4. Which two or three, if any, of the following things do you worry about the most?
10%
16%
23%
24%
39%
43%
47%
Cost of childcare
Cost of public transport
Being able to afford mortgage / rent payments
Being able to afford luxuries
Cost of petrol/diesel
Cost of food shopping
Being able to pay utility bills
Most common concerns
Agree
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The Coalition Government is more to blame than the last Labour Government for
the current state of the economy
THE BLAME GAME
Source: ComRes / The Independent. Base: Jan 20121,001 British adults 18+, 27 th29thJan 2012; March 2013
1,003 British adults 18+, 22nd24thMarch 2013
26%
62%
12%
32%
54%
14%
Agree Disagree Don't know
Labour still blamed, but Coalition increasingly so
Jan 12 & Mar 13
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THE BIG QUESTIONS REVISITED
Two questions answered by more questions
1. How solid is the Labour lead? What will happen to Lib Dem
switchers?
What if the economy improves?
Will Labour offer a positive,credible message?
2. What will happen to UKIP?
Have they peaked?
Can they figure prominently in anational, General Election?
What impact will they have onConservatives and Labour?
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Milestones on the way to May 2015
ROAD TO 2015
Scotland Independence:
impact on Westminster?By-Elections:
Very different to GE
Opportunities for UKIP
The economy:
Continuing good news
Will it feed through to public
Conference season:
Mood setter
Plots?
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SWINGS AT GENERAL ELECTIONS
2015 is difficult but not impossible for the Conservatives
Source: House of Commons Library
2.8 1.11.7
1.2
4.8
5.4
4.0
1.83.2
5.1
3
2.7
0.9
2.1
1.8
2 10.2
19501951
1955
1959
1964
1966
19701974 (Feb)
1974 (Oct)
1979
1983
1987
1992
1997
2001
2005
2010
2015
Swing to ConSwing to Lab
?
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in 182 years have there been successive hung parliaments (1910)
since 1900 has a government increased its vote share after more than 2 years in
office
Last time in 1955
Only twice since 1900
was the last time The Opposition won an overall majority after just a single parliament
out of office
Predicting the unpredictable
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The size of the task for the Conservatives
CURRENT SEAT DISTRIBUTION FAVOURS LABOUR
Thefigures
2% Con to Lab swing = Miliband PM
5% Con to Lab swing = overall Labour majority
5% Lib Dem to Lab swing = Labour as largest party Even without a swing to Labour, if UKIP gets 8% = Miliband PM
Theissues
Economy, welfare reform & immigration vs. One Nation Labour
Cost of living vs. economic competence
The floodwaters receding
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For more information please contact:
Tom Mludzinski
Head of Political Polling
Tom.Mludzinski@comres.co.uk
@tom_ComRes
020 7871 8674
mailto:Tom.Mludzinski@comres.co.ukmailto:Tom.Mludzinski@comres.co.uk8/21/2019 Reading the Polls presentation
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Break
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Where are we now?
Charlotte Taylor, NCVO
@Charlotte_NCVO
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The manifestos: what do we already know?
Much is yet to be decided and manifestos to be written.
More policy announcements expected in autumn
conferences.
But fixed-term parliament has led to a very long election
campaign.
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The manifestos: what do we already know?Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat
Economy Eliminate structural
deficit by 2017/18;
Further 25bn public
spending cuts
Tax 10p rate of tax and 50p
rate of tax;Abolish married
couples tax break;
Cut business rates
Personal allowance
increased to 12,500;Abolish married couples
tax break; Mansion tax
on properties over 2m
Constitutional House of Lords reform;Draw up a federal
constitution for the UK;
Parliamentary
candidates allowed to
job share
Welfare Further 15bn cuts to
welfare spending
Young person job
guarantee;
Abolish bedroom tax
Hardship payments
made available for
benefit claimants who
have been sanctioned;
Immediate review of thebedroom tax
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The manifestos: what do we already know?Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat
National minimum
wage
Living wage
Substantial increase,
possibly 7 per hour
Link NMW to average
earnings
Government contracts
only to living wage
employers; tax
incentives for livingwage employers.
Create an official living
wage. Central
government must pay
this rate, and local
government
encouraged to do so.Companies over 250
employees made to
account for not paying
living wage
Education Free schools and
academy expansion
Tuition fees cut to
6,000 pa;
Parent-led academieslinked to place
shortages;
Qualification
requirements for
teachers in academies
& free schools
Retain tuition fees;
Qualification
requirements forteachers in academies
and free schools;
Decentralisation of
oversight of academies
Childcare Tax-free childcare forhouseholds with both
25 hours freeentitlement for workin
Free entitlementextended to 10 hrs for
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The manifestos: what do we already know?Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat
Health & social care Merge health and
social care budgets.
Housing 200,000 homes by
2020
3 year tenancies
Abolish agency fees
Energy Greater local powers to
block onshore wind
turbines
Energy bills frozen until
2017;
Abolish Green Deal
No public subsidy for
nuclear power
Europe In/out referendum by
2017
(Probably) no in/out
referendum
In/out referendum only
in event of a significant
transfer of powers toEurope
Voluntary sector Social investment Repeal and replace
Lobbying Act
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What does it mean for the voluntary
sector?
Karl Wilding, NCVO
@karlwilding
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We have to acknowledge that actually Labour missed a trickand failed by not connecting to the debate about the big
society. It seems a long time ago now but there was a
compelling story there... about what are out civic duties and
what institutions should be built to nurture the common good..
Priorities
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Policies
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Planning: scenarios
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Practicalities
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Any questions?
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Forthcoming events
Evolve: the annual event for the voluntary sector
16thJune
Cert i f icate in Campaign ing
The original ground-
breaking campaigning course is now
recruiting for October 2014.