Deliberative Polls &

Citizens’ AssembliesA Short Presentation

Antwerp, October 13, 2008

Min Reuchamps

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies

Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative Polling

Deliberative PollingCitizens’ AssembliesCitizens’ Assemblies on the Future of

Federalism in Belgium and CanadaFrench-speaking Belgians and

Federalism

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative Polling

Since George H. Gallup, public opinions polls aim at giving:

an accurate picture & a voice to democracyAlthough they rely on scientific random

samples, they measure uninformed opinions

Two major difficulties:“rational ignorance” & “non-attitudes”

(Downs 1957 & Converse 1964)

59,2 % (N = 1437)

42,5 % (N = 1437)

Similar results for the adults

(see, e.g., Delli C

arpini and Keeter 1996 or Price 1999)

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Deliberative PollingJames S. Fishkin and Robert C. Luskin

(1988):Deliberative Polling®

Representation: scientific random sampleDeliberation: informed opinions It attempts “to represent everyone in a

given population, through a statistical microcosm empowered to think about the issues in question under favorable conditions” (Fishkin 2003, 128)

1. A random sample of the population takes a normal survey on a particular issue

2. A random sample of the respondents (400 people) gathers for a deliberative event

3. During the event, the citizens interact in focus groups and with experts

4. Finally, the participants re-take the same survey as in step 1

Key results:

Representative sample of the population to gather for an extensive deliberative event

Opinions change significantly

Respondents become much more informed

Information gains explain a lot of the opinion change

Deliberative polling: one of the most ambitious method of public consultation

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Citizens’ Assemblies

In the recent years, Citizens’ Assemblies on Electoral Reform

In BC, The Netherlands, and OntarioLearning process and “decision-making”

processCitizens’ Assemblies vs. Deliberative Polls

Towards Small Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium

and Canada

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and Canada

Deliberative Polls (DP)/Citizens’ Assemblies (CA) catch the big picture and provide learning-process: what people think before and after, and how their opinions vary

But not: why the citizens change their opinions and what it means

Moreover, DP & CA are extremely expensive & not comparative

Thus, smaller, comparative and more qualitative experiment

Trade-off:

not representative but still

deliberative

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Mini Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and

CanadaResearch question: the relationship between…… the citizens’ perception of federalism and…... their preferences vis-à-vis the evolution of

the federal state?Context: deep-divided polities and societiesPerception: knowledge, legitimacy, identity,

and perception of the other communityPreferences: future reforms of the federal

state

Four Citizens’ Assemblies:

In Flemish- and French-speaking Belgium, English- and French-speaking Canada

About thirty citizens for a half-day deliberative event (invitation through lists

of diffusion, media, peer-to-peer : i.e. sample of convenience)

Pre-questionnaire of 60 questions (perception and preferences)

5 focus groups, 2 experts and 2 politicans

Post-questionnaire

Creation of profiles/types of citizens

for comparison within and between

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Two Types of Data : Quantitative Data

Pre- and post-questionnaireQuestionnaire: perception &

preferencesNot representative but

standardization of the responses and guideline for discussions

What people think before and after, how their opinions vary, and define groups of citizens

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Two Types of Data : Qualitative Data

Focus groups and interaction participants-experts

Two moments in focus groups (for a total of 120’) with trained moderators

Two experts and two politiciansPerception & Preferences

Qualitative content analysis (Mayring 2000)

Nature of the beliefs and arguments

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

French-speaking Belgians and Federalism

Liège, September 2007, in the middle of the crisis

64 citizens for a one-day discussionSome insights :Federalism has two negative meanings…Walloon or Francophones?And the Future of Federalism?In comparative perspective…

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Graphique 2Quelle politique souhaitez-vous pour la Belgique ? (T1 et T2)

16 20

238

4252

6173

282 0 2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

T1 T2

sans réponse

je ne sais pas

scission de laBelgique

moins decompétences

statu quo

rétablissement del'État belge unitaire

davantage decompétences

T1 "Préférences fédérales" * T2 "Préférences fédérales" Crosstabulation

5 0 5 0 0 10

8,1% ,0% 8,1% ,0% ,0% 16,1%

1 4 7 3 0 15

1,6% 6,5% 11,3% 4,8% ,0% 24,2%

6 0 19 2 0 27

9,7% ,0% 30,6% 3,2% ,0% 43,5%

1 0 0 2 0 3

1,6% ,0% ,0% 3,2% ,0% 4,8%

0 0 0 1 1 2

,0% ,0% ,0% 1,6% 1,6% 3,2%

0 1 1 3 0 5

,0% 1,6% 1,6% 4,8% ,0% 8,1%

13 5 32 11 1 62

21,0% 8,1% 51,6% 17,7% 1,6% 100,0%

Count

% of Total

Count

% of Total

Count

% of Total

Count

% of Total

Count

% of Total

Count

% of Total

Count

% of Total

Davantage decompétences pour lesRégions et lesCommunautés

Le rétablissement del'État belge unitaire

Le statu quo de l'Étatfédéral actuel

Moins de compétencespour les Régions et lesCommunautésLa scission de laBelgique

Je ne sais pas

T1"Préférencesfédérales"

Total

Davantage decompétences

pour lesRégions et

lesCommunauté

s

Lerétablissement de l'État

belge unitaire

Le statu quode l'État

fédéral actuel

Moins decompétences pour lesRégions et

lesCommunau

tés

La scissionde la

Belgique

T2 "Préférences fédérales"

Total

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies : Preliminary

ConclusionDeliberative Polling (Fishkin and Luskin): Representation & Deliberation

But: nature of the changes – cost – comparison

Thus, mixing quali- and quanti- deliberative polling in a quasi-experiment

In four different fieldsDone by a graduate student

Collecting data and involving citizens in social science research

Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège

Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies

Thank you for your attention!Comments and questions welcome!And last but not least, you are

welcome to attend/participate in the next Citizens’ Assembly in Antwerp, on November, 2008!

For questions or more information:Min.Reuchamps@ulg.ac.be