PROJECT: ClimateChangeImpactsCRITFCInformationSystemandHydsimModeling

Goals: TheCRITFCInformationSystem(CIS)isthetribaltoolformodelingmultiplescenariosofColumbiaRiverSystemoperationsunderclimatechange.ThegoalsofCISarethefollowing:

• tocontinuouslydeveloprobustecosystemdataonkeyindicatorsforsalmonsurvivalbymodelingdifferentoperatingscenariosoftheColumbiaRiverSystemusinghistoricalhydrologyaswellasClimateChangestreamflowprojections.

(Note:To“continuouslydeveloprobustecosystemdata”meansperformingecosystemsmodelingcomputationscorrespondingtoallHydsim studyscenariosevaluatedforcollaborationwithFederalagencies.)

• Toachieveefficiencyinperformingmodelingrunsbythelimitedtribalstaff

• tocollaborateeffectivelywithFederalAgenciesonevaluatingdifferentoperatingscenariosfortheColumbiaRiverSystem.

CISTECHNICALOBJECTIVES

• Newsoftware: newmodelingplatform,graphicson-demand,datamanagement.IndependentfromHydsim.Butretainsthe“kernelhydraulicfunctions”tobeabletoreplicateBPAstudies.

• Newphilosophy:Centeredonefficiencyandtotal-systemapproachinmodeling.TotalsystemawarenessinvolvesmodelingallfacetsoftheColumbiaRiverSystem.NotjusthydraulicsinHydsim butalsofloodcontrol,watertemperature,fishsurvival,etc.

• Newmodelingfocus:CRITFCmodelerscanfocusonnavigatingthrutheGUIs.MakeiteasytolearnthemodelingfunctionsinCIS.Totheextentpossibleandpracticalforsoftwaredevelopment,simplifymodelingefforttopoint-and-click,suchastorunHydsim anddeliverinformation.Forexample,theGUIshownbelowallowsonlyonemouseclicktorunallmodelingstepsfor14-periodandDailyHydsim usingaClimateChangeflowsscenarfio,withoutmultiplebrowsing,withoutmodelerinterventionfromstarttofinish.CISalsoautomaticallydepositsthestudyresultsinthedatabase.AlldatamovementandlinkinghandledbyCIS,error-free.

HowCISisfulfillinggoalsforrobustdata?HowisspeedinanalysisgainedfromCISinteractivegraphics?

• Thegraphscomparecurrentconditionsscenariowithatribalecosystemscenario.• Modelercanclickoneparticulargraphtoshowitonfullscreen• Singleormultiplegraphson-screenarebasedonmodeler’schoiceofthefollowing:

1. wateryears,orsummaryofwateryeargroupsuchaslowwateryearsinQ1group2. ClimateChangestreamflowscenarioamong20culledscenariosorall80to160scenarios3. Whichoperatingscenariotocompare,suchasthosescenariosdiscussedduringColumbiaRiverTreatyCollaborations4. Whichhydroproject,suchasTheDalles5. Thegraphsbelowshowdatasuchaspowergenerationtocomparepowergainsandlossesbetweenscenarios,orthe

relationshipbetweenoutflowsandwaterparticletraveltime.6. TARGETCISCAPABILITY:IncludeTemperatureorSalmonSurvivalIndexinthedisplayofmultiplegraphs.

SUMMARY:CISdesigncomponents:

• Databases

• Modelingsoftware:BPAHydsim,ClimateChangeprocessor,AutomatedMetrics,InteractiveGraphics

• Datamanagementsoftware

• GraphicalUserInterfaces(GUIs)formodelertocontrolallotherCIScomponents

INPUT DATA BASE MODELING SOFTWARE OUTPUT DATA BASE

DATA MANAGEMENT AND GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES

Graphics, Information

on-screen

Run Hydsim study

Cull Climate Change Scenarios

Show data in comparative graphics

• Climate Change Flow processor• BPA 14-period Hydsim• Study Scenario Library Processor• Ecosystem Rule Curve Processor• BPA Daily Modulator• CIS Daily Hydsim• Quick View, Compare Scenarios • Error analysis, QA/QC• Software class: reservoir balancing• Temperature Model *• NOAA Compass Model *• Automated Metrics, including

scoring of salmon survival *

2. Multiple scenarios operating specs:

• power rule curves or objectives• Flood control rule curves• BiOP flows, spill, reservoir requirements• Ecosystem rule curves• Others: drum gate maintenance, etc.

1. Streamflow basis of simulation studies:

• Official BPA Historical Modified Flows1929-2010 water years

• Multiple scenarios of Climate Change1950-2099 water years

INPUT DATA BASE MODELING SOFTWARE

DATA MANAGEMENT And GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES

Run fish survival study *

Show data in Excel

OUTPUT DATA BASE

Daily and 14-period data

• Hydro project outflows• Reservoir elevations• Power generation• Total Spill and components• Water particle travel time• Temperature *• fish survival index *

INFORMATION on-demand

modeler controls data bases, software, GUI, queries to produce

information on-demand

* Future capability

CIS DETAILED DESIGN COMPOINENTS (ARCHITECTURE)

HowismodelingefficiencyachievedinCIS?

Efficientmodelingsimulations:

• Simulatemultipleoperatingscenariosandclimatechangeprojections

• CISsoftwarecontrolofeverystageofamodelingrunfrominitialinputtofinaloutputwithoutmodelerintervention

• Quickturnaroundforeachsimulationrun

• UserManualsaccessiblewithintheCISGUIs

DataManagement

• ControlofdataonmodelingstudiesofmultipleoperatingscenariosandClimateChangestreamflowscenarios

• Therehadbeen10-15operatingscenariosevaluatedduringColumbiaRiverTreatycollaborations.Ifsomeofthese

operatingscenariosaretobemodeledusingmultipleClimateChangestreamflowscenarios,thetotalnumberofstudieswill

stillbemanageablewithinCISandforthetribalmodelers.

• Thereisnolimit,otherthancomputerstoragespace,tothenumberofmodelingstudiesthatCIScanhandle

• Controlofsharingandmovementofdataacrosssoftwareapplications

• Errorfreedatamanagement,insteadoferror-pronemanualhandlingofdata

• Resultsofallsimulatedoperatingscenariosarestoredindatabasesautomaticallyattheendofeachmodelingrun

• ModelingresultsarequeriedviamodelerspecificationsofqueryparametersonGUIscreen

Efficiencyindeliveryofmodelingresultstocollaboration:

• CIScanberunandre-runon-demandduringcollaborationsessions

• Modelingrunsanddeliveryofdataon-screencanbeperformedlivebeforecollaborationparticipants

• Interactiveon-screengraphicsandExcelcanbeusedtopresentscenarioresults

• CISInteractivegraphicsisnotlimitedbythenumberstudyscenariosthatCIScanquery.AllstudiesinCISdatabaseare

availabletobequeriedandselectedforgraphics.Thelimitisonnumberofscenariosthatcanbeshownclearlyonscreen

• AutomatedMetricssoftwareprovidescomparisonofmultiplescenariosversususer-definedmetricson-the-fly

DetailsofCISSoftwareComponentsandModelingPlatform

Databases

• MicrosoftAccessdatabaseisusedforscenariodatamanagementtriggers

• Resultsfrom14-periodHydsim andDailyHydsim simulationsofoperatingscenariosarestoredinbinaryfiles

• Binaryfilesserveasdatabases.

• Tosavetime,CISdoesnotuploadHydsim binaryfilesintoActiveXDataObjects(ADO)databases

• CISisabletoquerybinaryfilesandtransmitthequerieddatadirectlytographicsorExcel

Softwarefunctions

• FunctionsareprogrammedmodelingstepsthataretriggeredtolaunchbymouseclickonGUI

• Softwarefunctionsinclude:BPA14-periodHydsim,CISDailyHydsim,CISClimateChangeFlowsscenariosprocessor,CISAutomaticMetrics.Proposed:NOAACompassandTemperatureModel

GraphicalUserInterface(GUI)

• MicrosoftAccessscreenobjectsandVBAlanguageareusedtodevelopGUIs.EasiesttransitionformodelerswhoareaccustomedtousingExcelandmacrosintheirownGUIs

• GUIsprovideon-screenchoicesofwhatscenariotorun,whichsoftwarefunctiontolaunch,andwhatparametersanddriverstosubmittothesoftwarefunction

• On-screenchoicesofwhatscenariosanddatatodisplayincomparativegraphics

• SpecificdatamanagementfunctionsarealsotriggeredtolaunchfromtheGUIbymodeler’smouseclicks

ExampleofGUI:RunHydsim• displayandeditTXTinputdataandExcelinputdatainpreparationforaHydsimmodelingrunforachosenscenario• SelectandlinkaClimateChangestreamflowscenariotothischosenoperatingscenario• RunHydsim• CreateExcelfileofresultstodelivertooutsideentities• Quickviewtheresultsonflows,elevations,etc,andinputdataonscreen(inanotherGUI)

Whenthisbuttonisclicked,CISruns14-periodanddailymodelinginonecontinuousprocess.Themodelerwaitsforittocomplete,thenusesanotherGUItoproducegraphs.

Whenthisbuttonisclicked,CISopenstheCullingMenutoenablethemodelertoselectandlinkaClimateChangescenariotothisHydsim run.Thenameofthescenarioisrecordedonwhitespacebelowthisbutton.

Excelfileopensforeditingwhenfilenameisclicked.Txtfileopensforeditingwhenfilenameisclicked

EXAMPLE OF GUI:

Graphics Server for Interactive analysis of Hydsim studies

Top GUI: Define graphing options:

units of measure, graphing options for water year and scenarios, and the water years selections.

Middle GUI: “Show Graphs”

When clicked, the 14-period and daily graphs show on-screen.

Bottom GUI: Displays requested graphs

As requested by the GUI, the Grand Coulee graph shows ending elevations for each scenario. The white line for flood control curve is overlayed.

The graph for US-Canada Border Outflow compares the outflows produced by the two scenarios desired by the modeler to be analyzed. Also shows the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph.

The graph for the Dalles also shows the outflows and the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph.

ExampleofGUI:FivetoolsforCullingClimateChangestreamflowscenarios• PurposeistolimitHydsim ClimateChangestudiestoonly20scenarios.• InthisGUI,tool#1isinvoked• Cullbycomposite(average)rankingofmultipleseasonalstreamflowvolumesobservedatonechosenprojectsitesuchasTheDalles.• PercentilesonGUIscreenareselectedtobeabletoshowpercentilerankingbyeachstreamflowvolumeinaseparatedisplay

• CISGraphicsenhancements(continuingprogress):ImprovementsontheGraphicalUserInterface(GUI).Dailygraphsmixedwith14-periodgraphson-screen,withoutdegradingthespeedofdataretrieval.

ThisGUI,afterselecting#4and#78whicharethefirstandlastClimateChangescenariosculledbyBPA,

producesthethreecombinedgraphsforanalysis

WhataremanualmodelingfunctionsprogrammedinCIStoachievemodelingefficiency?

• Analysisandeditingofinputtxtdata:On-demanddisplayofdatawhentriggeredbythemodelerontheGUI.Thenworkofeditingthedatais“localized”onthedatafileandthescenariotowhichit

belongs.

• Deliveryofdatafilesintomultiplestagesofamodelingrun:TherightdatasetsandmodelingspecificationsareensuredtomoveacrossmultiplesoftwarestagessuchasHydsim stepswithout

modelerintervention.

• Automatedmetricstoevaluatemultiplestudyscenarios.TheusualmetricsforoutflowsandreservoirelevationsarespecifiedtoCIS.ThenCIScomputesthescoreperwateryear.Thisreplacesthe

usualpracticeofbuildingspreadsheetstodothescoring.Inprogress:performmetricsonCISHydsim

studiesusingClimateChangeflowscenarios

• Scenariomanagement.Organizethecollectionofinputdataandoutputstudyresultsamongstudyscenariostomaintaindataintegrity.Eachscenarioanditsfilesresideinitsown“subfolder”.Scenario

subfolderswhicharethecollectionofscenariosresideinone“libraryfolder”.Nolimittoscenario

subfoldersandlibraryfolders.

• Deliveryofdatafilestographicsandanalysissoftware:Ensurethatdatasetfromthedesiredscenarios,especiallyClimateChangescenarios,areextractedandpresentedfastanderror-freetothe

modelerforanalysisbygraphics,Excel,etc.

• Modelingruns:Itisnotanimmenseefforttorunorre-runaHydsim studyinCIS.Afterdatarevisions

arecompletedbythemodelerviatheGUI,thenHydsim andothermodelingapplicationsarelaunched

viamouseclicksontheGUI.Hydsim runswithoutmodelerintervention.Resultsareautomatically

updatedintothescenariodomain.

WhatarekeysoftwarechangestoHydsim thatenabledCIStocontrolHydsim stepsandfunctions?

• 14PeriodHydsim:sameasBPAHydsim,butmodifiedtorunProgramsHYBLDandHYMODinsuccessionwithHYDSIMas“HYDSIMSTEPS”withoutmodelerintervention.

• DailyHydsim:Thesoftwarelogicisthesameasin14-periodHydsim,exceptthatthemodelingtimestepsaredaily.ThepurposeofDailyHydsim istoproducedailyregulatedflowsandelevationswhicharetobeusedforcomputingwaterparticletraveltime,rivertemperature,andfishsurvivalindices.Itrunsfor70,80,90,etc wateryearsandservesasreplacementtoBPA’sDailyModulatorwhichrunsonlyin70wateryearmode.

• ExtractMF:ThissoftwareextractstheplantandperiodfilesandallHydsim inputdatafromtheMasterFilethatissharedbyBPAtoCRITFC.

• Hydsim run-control:The“parameter”thatiscreatedfromCISGUIisdeliveredtoHydsim run-controlsoftware.ThisparameterisusedtodirectHydsim torun:

1. theusual14-periodmodeling,2. DailyHydsim3. extractdetailedfilesfromaBPAMasterbinaryfile4. whethertorunHydsim inModifiedFlows2000modeorClimateChangemodeusingaClimateChangestreamflow

scenario.InClimateChangemode,CISadsirrigationdatatotheoriginalCMIP5flowsscenario.Foryears2009-2099withoutirrigationdata,CISinterpolatesandinferstheirrigationdatafrom1929-2008wateryears.

• HydsimDailyBin:Consistsofthefollowingsoftwarecomponentswhosedocumentationsareembeddedinthesoftwarecode.SamestyleofdocumentationasinBPAHydsim:

1. ConvertClimateChangeflowsscenariosdataintoDailybinaryfilestofacilitategraphicsandHydsim ClimateChangeruns.

2. ExtractClimateChangeflowsscenariosfor“culling”3. Extract14-periodHydsim binaryfilesfor14-periodgraphics4. ExtractdailyHydsim binaryfilesfordailygraphics5. Performmetricsscoringformultiplescenarios,projects,metricsspecifications

CISenhancements

• Automatedmetrics:Tocomputemultiplescenario’sscoreonmetricsperwateryear,project,andscenarioistheequivalentofbuildingthousandsofspreadsheetsmanually.ExampleduringColumbiaRiverTreatycollaborations:for15scenarios,10projects,20metricsperprojectentailsbuilding3000spreadsheets.InCIS,nolimittoscenarios,projects,metrics.

• NewMetricstobedevelopedafter2019:Developsoftwarefor“AutomatedMetrics”forscoringofthewateryearbywateryearperformanceofeachstudyscenarioonsalmonsurvivalindicators– RiverTemperature,Survivalindex,etc.

• EnhancegraphicssoftwaretoshowmultiplewateryearsperClimateChangestreamflowscenario.Thisenablesmodelertoseethewateryearbywateryearprofileofstreamflows inascenariobeforeusingsuchscenarioinaHydsimmodelingstudy

• Automaticcomputationofdata:Insteadofhand-regulatingdataforinputtoHydsim.CIShas“softwareclasses”suchasreservoirbalancingtohandledifferentinstancesofhandregulations.

• EliminatesmanualcomputationsandmodelerinterventionatdifferentstagesofaHydsimmodelingru.Forthefollowingmodelingneeds,dataarecomputedinternally,toeliminatemanualcomputations.

1. VernitaBarflowrequirement

2. FulfilldeliveryofBiOP flowaugmentationvolumesfromUS-CanadaBorder

3. Fulfillmid-ArrowelevationsandflowrequirementsfromMicaandArrowinaMid-Arrowscenariothatuses(1)MicaERC,or(2)AOP22Micaelevations

4. ElevationsforrefillofArrowabovemid-Arrowelevation1420thataretriggeredanddefinedbyvolumeforecast,whenusingOfficialModifiedFlowsorClimateChangeflowsscenarios

5. BiOP flowrequirementsatLowerGraniteandMcNary,basedonvolumeforecasts,whenusingOfficialModifiedFlowsorClimateChangescenariosforaCIS-Hydsim studyscenario

• ClimateChangestudies(workinprogress):

MadepreliminaryHydsim runsusingsomeselectClimateChangeflowsscenarios,butlimitedtotraditionalwateryears1929-2008.

Work-in-progressonrecalibratingCIS-Hydsim torunwateryears1951-2099withClimateChangescenarios,andbeabletoproducegraphsthatcompareModifiedFlows2010scenariothatspansonlywateryears1929-2008.ONHOLD.NotsurehowBPAwillresolvethisdilemma.

• CISenhancement(ComputeFloodControlCurvesspecifictoastudy):

Work-in-progressonspecificationsforfloodcontrolsoftware.ONHOLD.NeedcollaborationwithCorpsofEngineers

TribalScenario4E80-CunderModifiedFlows2010andClimate

Changehigh&mediumyrs

CurrentConditionRCC80-17under

ModifiedFlows2010andClimateChangehigh&mediumyrs

ClimateChangeHydsimstudies

(averageof1951-98)