PROJECT : Climate Change Impacts CRITFC Information System … · •14 Period Hydsim: same as BPA...
Transcript of PROJECT : Climate Change Impacts CRITFC Information System … · •14 Period Hydsim: same as BPA...
PROJECT: ClimateChangeImpactsCRITFCInformationSystemandHydsimModeling
Goals: TheCRITFCInformationSystem(CIS)isthetribaltoolformodelingmultiplescenariosofColumbiaRiverSystemoperationsunderclimatechange.ThegoalsofCISarethefollowing:
• tocontinuouslydeveloprobustecosystemdataonkeyindicatorsforsalmonsurvivalbymodelingdifferentoperatingscenariosoftheColumbiaRiverSystemusinghistoricalhydrologyaswellasClimateChangestreamflowprojections.
(Note:To“continuouslydeveloprobustecosystemdata”meansperformingecosystemsmodelingcomputationscorrespondingtoallHydsim studyscenariosevaluatedforcollaborationwithFederalagencies.)
• Toachieveefficiencyinperformingmodelingrunsbythelimitedtribalstaff
• tocollaborateeffectivelywithFederalAgenciesonevaluatingdifferentoperatingscenariosfortheColumbiaRiverSystem.
CISTECHNICALOBJECTIVES
• Newsoftware: newmodelingplatform,graphicson-demand,datamanagement.IndependentfromHydsim.Butretainsthe“kernelhydraulicfunctions”tobeabletoreplicateBPAstudies.
• Newphilosophy:Centeredonefficiencyandtotal-systemapproachinmodeling.TotalsystemawarenessinvolvesmodelingallfacetsoftheColumbiaRiverSystem.NotjusthydraulicsinHydsim butalsofloodcontrol,watertemperature,fishsurvival,etc.
• Newmodelingfocus:CRITFCmodelerscanfocusonnavigatingthrutheGUIs.MakeiteasytolearnthemodelingfunctionsinCIS.Totheextentpossibleandpracticalforsoftwaredevelopment,simplifymodelingefforttopoint-and-click,suchastorunHydsim anddeliverinformation.Forexample,theGUIshownbelowallowsonlyonemouseclicktorunallmodelingstepsfor14-periodandDailyHydsim usingaClimateChangeflowsscenarfio,withoutmultiplebrowsing,withoutmodelerinterventionfromstarttofinish.CISalsoautomaticallydepositsthestudyresultsinthedatabase.AlldatamovementandlinkinghandledbyCIS,error-free.
HowCISisfulfillinggoalsforrobustdata?HowisspeedinanalysisgainedfromCISinteractivegraphics?
• Thegraphscomparecurrentconditionsscenariowithatribalecosystemscenario.• Modelercanclickoneparticulargraphtoshowitonfullscreen• Singleormultiplegraphson-screenarebasedonmodeler’schoiceofthefollowing:
1. wateryears,orsummaryofwateryeargroupsuchaslowwateryearsinQ1group2. ClimateChangestreamflowscenarioamong20culledscenariosorall80to160scenarios3. Whichoperatingscenariotocompare,suchasthosescenariosdiscussedduringColumbiaRiverTreatyCollaborations4. Whichhydroproject,suchasTheDalles5. Thegraphsbelowshowdatasuchaspowergenerationtocomparepowergainsandlossesbetweenscenarios,orthe
relationshipbetweenoutflowsandwaterparticletraveltime.6. TARGETCISCAPABILITY:IncludeTemperatureorSalmonSurvivalIndexinthedisplayofmultiplegraphs.
SUMMARY:CISdesigncomponents:
• Databases
• Modelingsoftware:BPAHydsim,ClimateChangeprocessor,AutomatedMetrics,InteractiveGraphics
• Datamanagementsoftware
• GraphicalUserInterfaces(GUIs)formodelertocontrolallotherCIScomponents
INPUT DATA BASE MODELING SOFTWARE OUTPUT DATA BASE
DATA MANAGEMENT AND GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES
Graphics, Information
on-screen
Run Hydsim study
Cull Climate Change Scenarios
Show data in comparative graphics
• Climate Change Flow processor• BPA 14-period Hydsim• Study Scenario Library Processor• Ecosystem Rule Curve Processor• BPA Daily Modulator• CIS Daily Hydsim• Quick View, Compare Scenarios • Error analysis, QA/QC• Software class: reservoir balancing• Temperature Model *• NOAA Compass Model *• Automated Metrics, including
scoring of salmon survival *
2. Multiple scenarios operating specs:
• power rule curves or objectives• Flood control rule curves• BiOP flows, spill, reservoir requirements• Ecosystem rule curves• Others: drum gate maintenance, etc.
1. Streamflow basis of simulation studies:
• Official BPA Historical Modified Flows1929-2010 water years
• Multiple scenarios of Climate Change1950-2099 water years
INPUT DATA BASE MODELING SOFTWARE
DATA MANAGEMENT And GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES
Run fish survival study *
Show data in Excel
OUTPUT DATA BASE
Daily and 14-period data
• Hydro project outflows• Reservoir elevations• Power generation• Total Spill and components• Water particle travel time• Temperature *• fish survival index *
INFORMATION on-demand
modeler controls data bases, software, GUI, queries to produce
information on-demand
* Future capability
CIS DETAILED DESIGN COMPOINENTS (ARCHITECTURE)
HowismodelingefficiencyachievedinCIS?
Efficientmodelingsimulations:
• Simulatemultipleoperatingscenariosandclimatechangeprojections
• CISsoftwarecontrolofeverystageofamodelingrunfrominitialinputtofinaloutputwithoutmodelerintervention
• Quickturnaroundforeachsimulationrun
• UserManualsaccessiblewithintheCISGUIs
DataManagement
• ControlofdataonmodelingstudiesofmultipleoperatingscenariosandClimateChangestreamflowscenarios
• Therehadbeen10-15operatingscenariosevaluatedduringColumbiaRiverTreatycollaborations.Ifsomeofthese
operatingscenariosaretobemodeledusingmultipleClimateChangestreamflowscenarios,thetotalnumberofstudieswill
stillbemanageablewithinCISandforthetribalmodelers.
• Thereisnolimit,otherthancomputerstoragespace,tothenumberofmodelingstudiesthatCIScanhandle
• Controlofsharingandmovementofdataacrosssoftwareapplications
• Errorfreedatamanagement,insteadoferror-pronemanualhandlingofdata
• Resultsofallsimulatedoperatingscenariosarestoredindatabasesautomaticallyattheendofeachmodelingrun
• ModelingresultsarequeriedviamodelerspecificationsofqueryparametersonGUIscreen
Efficiencyindeliveryofmodelingresultstocollaboration:
• CIScanberunandre-runon-demandduringcollaborationsessions
• Modelingrunsanddeliveryofdataon-screencanbeperformedlivebeforecollaborationparticipants
• Interactiveon-screengraphicsandExcelcanbeusedtopresentscenarioresults
• CISInteractivegraphicsisnotlimitedbythenumberstudyscenariosthatCIScanquery.AllstudiesinCISdatabaseare
availabletobequeriedandselectedforgraphics.Thelimitisonnumberofscenariosthatcanbeshownclearlyonscreen
• AutomatedMetricssoftwareprovidescomparisonofmultiplescenariosversususer-definedmetricson-the-fly
DetailsofCISSoftwareComponentsandModelingPlatform
Databases
• MicrosoftAccessdatabaseisusedforscenariodatamanagementtriggers
• Resultsfrom14-periodHydsim andDailyHydsim simulationsofoperatingscenariosarestoredinbinaryfiles
• Binaryfilesserveasdatabases.
• Tosavetime,CISdoesnotuploadHydsim binaryfilesintoActiveXDataObjects(ADO)databases
• CISisabletoquerybinaryfilesandtransmitthequerieddatadirectlytographicsorExcel
Softwarefunctions
• FunctionsareprogrammedmodelingstepsthataretriggeredtolaunchbymouseclickonGUI
• Softwarefunctionsinclude:BPA14-periodHydsim,CISDailyHydsim,CISClimateChangeFlowsscenariosprocessor,CISAutomaticMetrics.Proposed:NOAACompassandTemperatureModel
GraphicalUserInterface(GUI)
• MicrosoftAccessscreenobjectsandVBAlanguageareusedtodevelopGUIs.EasiesttransitionformodelerswhoareaccustomedtousingExcelandmacrosintheirownGUIs
• GUIsprovideon-screenchoicesofwhatscenariotorun,whichsoftwarefunctiontolaunch,andwhatparametersanddriverstosubmittothesoftwarefunction
• On-screenchoicesofwhatscenariosanddatatodisplayincomparativegraphics
• SpecificdatamanagementfunctionsarealsotriggeredtolaunchfromtheGUIbymodeler’smouseclicks
ExampleofGUI:RunHydsim• displayandeditTXTinputdataandExcelinputdatainpreparationforaHydsimmodelingrunforachosenscenario• SelectandlinkaClimateChangestreamflowscenariotothischosenoperatingscenario• RunHydsim• CreateExcelfileofresultstodelivertooutsideentities• Quickviewtheresultsonflows,elevations,etc,andinputdataonscreen(inanotherGUI)
Whenthisbuttonisclicked,CISruns14-periodanddailymodelinginonecontinuousprocess.Themodelerwaitsforittocomplete,thenusesanotherGUItoproducegraphs.
Whenthisbuttonisclicked,CISopenstheCullingMenutoenablethemodelertoselectandlinkaClimateChangescenariotothisHydsim run.Thenameofthescenarioisrecordedonwhitespacebelowthisbutton.
Excelfileopensforeditingwhenfilenameisclicked.Txtfileopensforeditingwhenfilenameisclicked
EXAMPLE OF GUI:
Graphics Server for Interactive analysis of Hydsim studies
Top GUI: Define graphing options:
units of measure, graphing options for water year and scenarios, and the water years selections.
Middle GUI: “Show Graphs”
When clicked, the 14-period and daily graphs show on-screen.
Bottom GUI: Displays requested graphs
As requested by the GUI, the Grand Coulee graph shows ending elevations for each scenario. The white line for flood control curve is overlayed.
The graph for US-Canada Border Outflow compares the outflows produced by the two scenarios desired by the modeler to be analyzed. Also shows the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph.
The graph for the Dalles also shows the outflows and the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph.
ExampleofGUI:FivetoolsforCullingClimateChangestreamflowscenarios• PurposeistolimitHydsim ClimateChangestudiestoonly20scenarios.• InthisGUI,tool#1isinvoked• Cullbycomposite(average)rankingofmultipleseasonalstreamflowvolumesobservedatonechosenprojectsitesuchasTheDalles.• PercentilesonGUIscreenareselectedtobeabletoshowpercentilerankingbyeachstreamflowvolumeinaseparatedisplay
• CISGraphicsenhancements(continuingprogress):ImprovementsontheGraphicalUserInterface(GUI).Dailygraphsmixedwith14-periodgraphson-screen,withoutdegradingthespeedofdataretrieval.
ThisGUI,afterselecting#4and#78whicharethefirstandlastClimateChangescenariosculledbyBPA,
producesthethreecombinedgraphsforanalysis
WhataremanualmodelingfunctionsprogrammedinCIStoachievemodelingefficiency?
• Analysisandeditingofinputtxtdata:On-demanddisplayofdatawhentriggeredbythemodelerontheGUI.Thenworkofeditingthedatais“localized”onthedatafileandthescenariotowhichit
belongs.
• Deliveryofdatafilesintomultiplestagesofamodelingrun:TherightdatasetsandmodelingspecificationsareensuredtomoveacrossmultiplesoftwarestagessuchasHydsim stepswithout
modelerintervention.
• Automatedmetricstoevaluatemultiplestudyscenarios.TheusualmetricsforoutflowsandreservoirelevationsarespecifiedtoCIS.ThenCIScomputesthescoreperwateryear.Thisreplacesthe
usualpracticeofbuildingspreadsheetstodothescoring.Inprogress:performmetricsonCISHydsim
studiesusingClimateChangeflowscenarios
• Scenariomanagement.Organizethecollectionofinputdataandoutputstudyresultsamongstudyscenariostomaintaindataintegrity.Eachscenarioanditsfilesresideinitsown“subfolder”.Scenario
subfolderswhicharethecollectionofscenariosresideinone“libraryfolder”.Nolimittoscenario
subfoldersandlibraryfolders.
• Deliveryofdatafilestographicsandanalysissoftware:Ensurethatdatasetfromthedesiredscenarios,especiallyClimateChangescenarios,areextractedandpresentedfastanderror-freetothe
modelerforanalysisbygraphics,Excel,etc.
• Modelingruns:Itisnotanimmenseefforttorunorre-runaHydsim studyinCIS.Afterdatarevisions
arecompletedbythemodelerviatheGUI,thenHydsim andothermodelingapplicationsarelaunched
viamouseclicksontheGUI.Hydsim runswithoutmodelerintervention.Resultsareautomatically
updatedintothescenariodomain.
WhatarekeysoftwarechangestoHydsim thatenabledCIStocontrolHydsim stepsandfunctions?
• 14PeriodHydsim:sameasBPAHydsim,butmodifiedtorunProgramsHYBLDandHYMODinsuccessionwithHYDSIMas“HYDSIMSTEPS”withoutmodelerintervention.
• DailyHydsim:Thesoftwarelogicisthesameasin14-periodHydsim,exceptthatthemodelingtimestepsaredaily.ThepurposeofDailyHydsim istoproducedailyregulatedflowsandelevationswhicharetobeusedforcomputingwaterparticletraveltime,rivertemperature,andfishsurvivalindices.Itrunsfor70,80,90,etc wateryearsandservesasreplacementtoBPA’sDailyModulatorwhichrunsonlyin70wateryearmode.
• ExtractMF:ThissoftwareextractstheplantandperiodfilesandallHydsim inputdatafromtheMasterFilethatissharedbyBPAtoCRITFC.
• Hydsim run-control:The“parameter”thatiscreatedfromCISGUIisdeliveredtoHydsim run-controlsoftware.ThisparameterisusedtodirectHydsim torun:
1. theusual14-periodmodeling,2. DailyHydsim3. extractdetailedfilesfromaBPAMasterbinaryfile4. whethertorunHydsim inModifiedFlows2000modeorClimateChangemodeusingaClimateChangestreamflow
scenario.InClimateChangemode,CISadsirrigationdatatotheoriginalCMIP5flowsscenario.Foryears2009-2099withoutirrigationdata,CISinterpolatesandinferstheirrigationdatafrom1929-2008wateryears.
• HydsimDailyBin:Consistsofthefollowingsoftwarecomponentswhosedocumentationsareembeddedinthesoftwarecode.SamestyleofdocumentationasinBPAHydsim:
1. ConvertClimateChangeflowsscenariosdataintoDailybinaryfilestofacilitategraphicsandHydsim ClimateChangeruns.
2. ExtractClimateChangeflowsscenariosfor“culling”3. Extract14-periodHydsim binaryfilesfor14-periodgraphics4. ExtractdailyHydsim binaryfilesfordailygraphics5. Performmetricsscoringformultiplescenarios,projects,metricsspecifications
CISenhancements
• Automatedmetrics:Tocomputemultiplescenario’sscoreonmetricsperwateryear,project,andscenarioistheequivalentofbuildingthousandsofspreadsheetsmanually.ExampleduringColumbiaRiverTreatycollaborations:for15scenarios,10projects,20metricsperprojectentailsbuilding3000spreadsheets.InCIS,nolimittoscenarios,projects,metrics.
• NewMetricstobedevelopedafter2019:Developsoftwarefor“AutomatedMetrics”forscoringofthewateryearbywateryearperformanceofeachstudyscenarioonsalmonsurvivalindicators– RiverTemperature,Survivalindex,etc.
• EnhancegraphicssoftwaretoshowmultiplewateryearsperClimateChangestreamflowscenario.Thisenablesmodelertoseethewateryearbywateryearprofileofstreamflows inascenariobeforeusingsuchscenarioinaHydsimmodelingstudy
• Automaticcomputationofdata:Insteadofhand-regulatingdataforinputtoHydsim.CIShas“softwareclasses”suchasreservoirbalancingtohandledifferentinstancesofhandregulations.
• EliminatesmanualcomputationsandmodelerinterventionatdifferentstagesofaHydsimmodelingru.Forthefollowingmodelingneeds,dataarecomputedinternally,toeliminatemanualcomputations.
1. VernitaBarflowrequirement
2. FulfilldeliveryofBiOP flowaugmentationvolumesfromUS-CanadaBorder
3. Fulfillmid-ArrowelevationsandflowrequirementsfromMicaandArrowinaMid-Arrowscenariothatuses(1)MicaERC,or(2)AOP22Micaelevations
4. ElevationsforrefillofArrowabovemid-Arrowelevation1420thataretriggeredanddefinedbyvolumeforecast,whenusingOfficialModifiedFlowsorClimateChangeflowsscenarios
5. BiOP flowrequirementsatLowerGraniteandMcNary,basedonvolumeforecasts,whenusingOfficialModifiedFlowsorClimateChangescenariosforaCIS-Hydsim studyscenario
• ClimateChangestudies(workinprogress):
MadepreliminaryHydsim runsusingsomeselectClimateChangeflowsscenarios,butlimitedtotraditionalwateryears1929-2008.
Work-in-progressonrecalibratingCIS-Hydsim torunwateryears1951-2099withClimateChangescenarios,andbeabletoproducegraphsthatcompareModifiedFlows2010scenariothatspansonlywateryears1929-2008.ONHOLD.NotsurehowBPAwillresolvethisdilemma.
• CISenhancement(ComputeFloodControlCurvesspecifictoastudy):
Work-in-progressonspecificationsforfloodcontrolsoftware.ONHOLD.NeedcollaborationwithCorpsofEngineers
TribalScenario4E80-CunderModifiedFlows2010andClimate
Changehigh&mediumyrs
CurrentConditionRCC80-17under
ModifiedFlows2010andClimateChangehigh&mediumyrs
ClimateChangeHydsimstudies
(averageof1951-98)