THE BASICSWORKSHOP 1

First Things First!

Write the short date in your mathematics book

Write the title – Probability Workshop 1 in your mathematics book

Underline both of these in red pen

What are we learning?

We are learning to. . . Understand and use some of the basic

language of probability Create and undertake probability

experiments Display probability for events in an

appropriate way Compare expected and actual results

from probability experiments and discuss the reasons for this

What are we going to do?

Walk through a probability experiment Be introduced to the language of

probability Record probability

Conduct your own probability experiment

What is probability?

Probability is the study of

how likely something is to happen.

We use probability in lots of different places.

We use these words to explain how probable something is:

Likely Unlikely Impossible Certain Even ChanceIf we were to place the words above on a the line below where would they go?

Work with a buddy to figure it out. Share your answer with your group, explain why and where you put each word.

The Language

These words make up the probability scale.

The scale goes from impossible to certain.Where on the probability scale would you put:

The chance that you are going to eat dirt for lunch?

Write your answer in your mathematics book before you go onto the next slide

Using The Language

The chance that you are going to eat dirt for lunch?

That’s right – you’re not going to eat dirt for lunch

Therefore it would go on the impossible end of the probability scale.

There is a 0% chance that you are going to do that.

Where on the probability scale would you put:•Getting a head when you flip a coin•Throwing a 2 when you roll a dice•School will end at 3pm today•You will write the correct answer in your mathematics book• Your teacher will use a blue whiteboard marker today•You will watch television this afternoon•You will travel back in time today

Using the Language

Impossible Unlikely Even Chance

Likely Certain

0% 0 – 49 % 50% 51-99% 100%

•You will travel back in time today

•Throwing a 2 when you roll a dice•Your teacher will use a blue whiteboard marker today

•Getting a head when you flip a coin

•You will write the correct answer in your mathematics book•You will watch television this afternoon

•School will end at 3pm today

Here are the likely places you would put each scenario. However you might be able to argue a different location with your group. As long as you have a good reason you can put each scenario in any of the places on the line.

Checking Probability

We can test probability using a probability experiment.

We are going to use a bag of cubes to test probability today.

This is our bag.

Here is what is in our bag1 Blue Cube1 Green Cube

Working Out Probability

We want to know what the probability is that a green cube will be pulled out of the bag when the monster pulls a cube out.

Do you know what the probability will be for a blue cube?

See if you can work it out with your buddy. Share your ideas with your group

There are two cubes in the bag.We know that we can pull out a blue or a green cube.

There for there is an even chance (50%) that we will pull out a green cube.

Working Out Probability

We want to know what the probability is that a blue cube will be pulled out of the bag when the monster pulls a cube out.

How would we test that?

Do you think that there is going to be the same number of blue and green cubes pulled out of the bag when we do our experiment?

That’s right there are two cubes in the bag.We know that we can pull out a blue or a green cube.

There fore there is an even chance (50%) that we will pull out a blue cube.

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5

6

7

8

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6

7

8

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7

8

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8 Green

9

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8 Green

9 Green

10

Testing Probability

Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8 Green

9 Green

10 Blue

Testing Probability

Now we’ve completed our experiment we can have a look at the results. Work with a buddy to answer the questions in your mathematics book.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8 Green

9 Green

10 Blue

1. How many blue blocks did we pull

out?

2. How many green blocks did we

pull out?

3. What was the probability that we

would pull out a blue block?

4. What was the probability that we

would pull out a green block?

5. Did our probability match with our

experiment results?

Testing Probability

Here are the answers to the questions…

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8 Green

9 Green

10 Blue

1. 4

2. 6

3. Even Chance or 50%

4. Even Chance or 50%

5. No we pulled out 40% Blue and

60% green instead of 50% of each.

Testing Probability

So our probability didn’t match our test results.

Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8 Green

9 Green

10 Blue

Why do you think that happened? Try

and explain it with a buddy. Share

your answers with your

mathematics group before going

to the next slide.

Testing Probability

Remember probability is the study of how likely something is

to happen.

We can predict what could happen and what is more or less

likely to happen but in reality any of the events could happen

unless they are impossible.Try # Colour

1 Green

2 Green

3 Green

4 Blue

5 Blue

6 Green

7 Blue

8 Green

9 Green

10 Blue

Are you ready to try your own experiment?

Your Own Experiment

Lets have some

fun with coins.

Get a coin from

your teacher or

use a counter

with a different

symbol on each

side.

Flip #

Result

Flip #

Result

1 16

2 17

3 18

4 19

5 20

6 21

7 22

8 23

9 24

10 25

11 26

12 27

13 28

14 2

15 30

Answer these questions

with a buddy first:1. What is the

probability of getting a head when you flip a coin?

2. What is the probability of getting a tale when you flip a coin?Okay now lets test it out

Draw the table into your mathematics bookHave 30 tries at flipping a coin record the result of each flip

Your Own Experiment

Now that you’ve

done your

experiment…

Compare the

results from

everyone in the

group.

Flip #

Result

Flip #

Result

1 16

2 17

3 18

4 19

5 20

6 21

7 22

8 23

9 24

10 25

11 26

12 27

13 28

14 2

15 30

Where your results all the

same?

Why? Why not?

That’s right, we can use probability to predict what could happen but in reality the events we’re studying could all happen unless they are impossible.

Evaluation

We need to look at what

you’ve learnt and what

you managed to

complete.

Answer the questions

on the following slides

with a buddy.

How is your learning going? Are you able to do these things?

Understand and use some of the basic language of probability

Create and undertake probability experiments

Display probability for events in an appropriate way

Compare expected and actual results from probability experiments and discuss the reasons for this

How did you go?

Did you complete all of these things?

Walk through a probability experiment Be introduced to the language of

probability Record probability

Conduct your own probability experiment

Congratulations

You’ve learnt about the basic probability language and process

Just a little more practice and you’ll be ready to predict anything!