Probability - The Basics Workshop 1
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Transcript of Probability - The Basics Workshop 1
THE BASICSWORKSHOP 1
First Things First!
Write the short date in your mathematics book
Write the title – Probability Workshop 1 in your mathematics book
Underline both of these in red pen
What are we learning?
We are learning to. . . Understand and use some of the basic
language of probability Create and undertake probability
experiments Display probability for events in an
appropriate way Compare expected and actual results
from probability experiments and discuss the reasons for this
What are we going to do?
Walk through a probability experiment Be introduced to the language of
probability Record probability
Conduct your own probability experiment
What is probability?
Probability is the study of
how likely something is to happen.
We use probability in lots of different places.
We use these words to explain how probable something is:
Likely Unlikely Impossible Certain Even ChanceIf we were to place the words above on a the line below where would they go?
Work with a buddy to figure it out. Share your answer with your group, explain why and where you put each word.
The Language
These words make up the probability scale.
The scale goes from impossible to certain.Where on the probability scale would you put:
The chance that you are going to eat dirt for lunch?
Write your answer in your mathematics book before you go onto the next slide
Using The Language
The chance that you are going to eat dirt for lunch?
That’s right – you’re not going to eat dirt for lunch
Therefore it would go on the impossible end of the probability scale.
There is a 0% chance that you are going to do that.
Where on the probability scale would you put:•Getting a head when you flip a coin•Throwing a 2 when you roll a dice•School will end at 3pm today•You will write the correct answer in your mathematics book• Your teacher will use a blue whiteboard marker today•You will watch television this afternoon•You will travel back in time today
Using the Language
Impossible Unlikely Even Chance
Likely Certain
0% 0 – 49 % 50% 51-99% 100%
•You will travel back in time today
•Throwing a 2 when you roll a dice•Your teacher will use a blue whiteboard marker today
•Getting a head when you flip a coin
•You will write the correct answer in your mathematics book•You will watch television this afternoon
•School will end at 3pm today
Here are the likely places you would put each scenario. However you might be able to argue a different location with your group. As long as you have a good reason you can put each scenario in any of the places on the line.
Checking Probability
We can test probability using a probability experiment.
We are going to use a bag of cubes to test probability today.
This is our bag.
Here is what is in our bag1 Blue Cube1 Green Cube
Working Out Probability
We want to know what the probability is that a green cube will be pulled out of the bag when the monster pulls a cube out.
Do you know what the probability will be for a blue cube?
See if you can work it out with your buddy. Share your ideas with your group
There are two cubes in the bag.We know that we can pull out a blue or a green cube.
There for there is an even chance (50%) that we will pull out a green cube.
Working Out Probability
We want to know what the probability is that a blue cube will be pulled out of the bag when the monster pulls a cube out.
How would we test that?
Do you think that there is going to be the same number of blue and green cubes pulled out of the bag when we do our experiment?
That’s right there are two cubes in the bag.We know that we can pull out a blue or a green cube.
There fore there is an even chance (50%) that we will pull out a blue cube.
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5
6
7
8
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6
7
8
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7
8
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Green
9
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Green
9 Green
10
Testing Probability
Lets experiment. We are going to pull out a cube from the bag, record what colour it is then put it back into the bag. Then we’ll do it again. We’re going to have 10 tries at it.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Green
9 Green
10 Blue
Testing Probability
Now we’ve completed our experiment we can have a look at the results. Work with a buddy to answer the questions in your mathematics book.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Green
9 Green
10 Blue
1. How many blue blocks did we pull
out?
2. How many green blocks did we
pull out?
3. What was the probability that we
would pull out a blue block?
4. What was the probability that we
would pull out a green block?
5. Did our probability match with our
experiment results?
Testing Probability
Here are the answers to the questions…
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Green
9 Green
10 Blue
1. 4
2. 6
3. Even Chance or 50%
4. Even Chance or 50%
5. No we pulled out 40% Blue and
60% green instead of 50% of each.
Testing Probability
So our probability didn’t match our test results.
Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Green
9 Green
10 Blue
Why do you think that happened? Try
and explain it with a buddy. Share
your answers with your
mathematics group before going
to the next slide.
Testing Probability
Remember probability is the study of how likely something is
to happen.
We can predict what could happen and what is more or less
likely to happen but in reality any of the events could happen
unless they are impossible.Try # Colour
1 Green
2 Green
3 Green
4 Blue
5 Blue
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Green
9 Green
10 Blue
Are you ready to try your own experiment?
Your Own Experiment
Lets have some
fun with coins.
Get a coin from
your teacher or
use a counter
with a different
symbol on each
side.
Flip #
Result
Flip #
Result
1 16
2 17
3 18
4 19
5 20
6 21
7 22
8 23
9 24
10 25
11 26
12 27
13 28
14 2
15 30
Answer these questions
with a buddy first:1. What is the
probability of getting a head when you flip a coin?
2. What is the probability of getting a tale when you flip a coin?Okay now lets test it out
Draw the table into your mathematics bookHave 30 tries at flipping a coin record the result of each flip
Your Own Experiment
Now that you’ve
done your
experiment…
Compare the
results from
everyone in the
group.
Flip #
Result
Flip #
Result
1 16
2 17
3 18
4 19
5 20
6 21
7 22
8 23
9 24
10 25
11 26
12 27
13 28
14 2
15 30
Where your results all the
same?
Why? Why not?
That’s right, we can use probability to predict what could happen but in reality the events we’re studying could all happen unless they are impossible.
Evaluation
We need to look at what
you’ve learnt and what
you managed to
complete.
Answer the questions
on the following slides
with a buddy.
How is your learning going? Are you able to do these things?
Understand and use some of the basic language of probability
Create and undertake probability experiments
Display probability for events in an appropriate way
Compare expected and actual results from probability experiments and discuss the reasons for this
How did you go?
Did you complete all of these things?
Walk through a probability experiment Be introduced to the language of
probability Record probability
Conduct your own probability experiment
Congratulations
You’ve learnt about the basic probability language and process
Just a little more practice and you’ll be ready to predict anything!