Post on 12-Jan-2016
description
Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results
Lee Alter
Western Governors’ Association
January 10, 2005
Tucson, AZ
Caveats
• Results are preliminary– Became available last week– Minor emission errors identified– Other issues identified in CENRAP emissions– Further QA planned
• The following emissions are held constant– Sources outside the U.S.– CA nonroad sources and ocean-going vessels– Biogenics, wb dust, and smoke (Wx, Rx, ag)
Caveats
• Emission changes limitted to known / certain controls on stationary, area, and land-based mobile sources. In WRAP region, this equates to annual change of:
- 51,000 tons of SO2 (-5%)
- 1,040,000 tons of NOx (-28%)
635,000 tons of PM10 (31%)
424,000 tons of VOC (14%)[Results include AK, but do not include expected increases in OGVs and expected decreases in CA nonroad.]
Caveats
• Each Class I area projection based on modeled differences during ~22 days in 2002
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathSan Gorgonio Wilderness - 20% Worst Days
21.5420.58
18.17
15.77
13.36
10.95
8.547.10
19.91
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064
Year
Ha
zin
ess
In
de
x (D
eci
vie
ws)
Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathSaguaro NM - 20% Worst Days
14.87 14.3413.00
11.6610.32
8.987.64
6.84
14.41
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064
Year
Ha
zin
ess
In
de
x (D
eci
vie
ws)
Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction
Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BR
CA
1
CA
NY
1
GR
CA
2
ME
VE
1
SA
PE
1
WE
MI1
ZIO
N1
BA
ND
1
BO
AP
1
CH
IR1
GIC
L1
GR
SA
1
IKB
A1
SA
CR
1
SA
GU
1
SIA
N1
WH
IT1
WH
PE
1
Pe
rcen
t o
f D
eci
view
s A
ch
ieve
d
Colorado Plateau Desert Southwest
Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BA
DL1
CA
BI1
GA
MO
1
LOS
T1
ME
LA1
MO
NT
1
SU
LA1
TH
RO
1
UL
BE
1
WIC
A1
CR
MO
1
JAR
B1
SA
WT
1
BR
ID1
NO
AB
1
RO
MO
1
WH
RI1
YE
LL2
Pe
rcen
t o
f D
eci
view
s A
ch
ieve
d
North Great Basin Rockies
Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%H
EC
A1
KA
LM1
MO
HO
1
MO
RA
1
NO
CA
1
OLY
M1
PA
SA
1
SN
PA
1
ST
AR
1
TH
SI1
WH
PA
1
AG
TI1
BLI
S1
DO
ME
1
HO
OV
1
JOS
H1
LAV
O1
PIN
N1
RE
DW
1
SA
GA
1
SA
GO
1
YO
SE
1
Per
cen
t o
f D
eciv
iew
s A
chie
ved
Pacific Northwest California
See Spreadsheet Handout for Class I Area Resultsfor 20% Worst Days