Predicting Massmovement Processes induced in Periglazial Areas-
Study from central Switzeland
D. Tobler, P. Mani, N. Hählen
Foro International Glaciares, HuarazJuly 1th – 4th, 2013
1. Introduction
2. Concept
3. Methods
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Content
Guttannen, Central Switzerland - Bernese Oberland
1. Introduction
1. Introduction - Events
1. Introduction - Events
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG velocity: ~ 15 m/s
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
2. Concept – Process Chain
2. Concept – Process Chain
2. Concept – Process Chain
Hählen (2012)
Rockfall
Ritzlihorn
Debris-Fan
Precipitation Temperature
Melting Permafrost
Aare River
Snow - Avalanches
2. Concept – Process Chain
2. Concept – Process Chain
3. Methods – Climate
Linsbauer et al. (in prep)
ΔT [
°C
]
+ 2.9 °C (2060)
+ 1.7 °C (2028)
Temperatur Grimsel Hospiz
1980-2009
2035 2060 2060(M3)
JJA 9.6 +1.6 +2.9 +4.2
SON 3.7 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0
# days T > 15 °C 5 14 27 34
Periode T > 15°C 2 5 6 10
CH2011 (2011)
3. Methods – Glacier Retreat
16.11.2012
2013
2035
retreat
2060
retreat
Szenario 2060
3. Methods – Glacier Retreat
Szenario 2060Szenario 2060
Paul and Linsbauer (2012)
3. Methods – Permafrost
Böckli (2012)Nötzli et al. (2012)
Time
Rela
tive R
ate
/ A
mount
Erosion Rate Amount of Sediment
3. Methods – Permafrost
3. Methods – Process Models
PROCESS MODELS
SLIDISP+
Liener (2000)Riner (2009)
Tobler et al. (2011)
ROFMOD 3D
Tobler and Pfeifer (2011)
Scheuner and McArdell (2007)
RAMMSDebris Flow
4. Results - Rockfall
Depositionvolume[m3]
4. Results - Landslides
4. Results – Debris Flow
Rotlaui Channel
4. Results – Debris Flow
Spreitgraben
- Where are the critical sections along
the mountain pass road?
- Rough estimation of the amount of
bedload depostion possible ?
- Definition of possible protection
measures ?
5. Conclusions / Outlook
5. Conclusions / Outlook
+ 150’000 m3
+ 1.5 mio m3
+ 2.0 mio m3
Key to Success
- Profound knowledge of ongoing processes and process chains
- Courage to break down complicated systems to basic steps
- Knowing existing uncertainties
5. Conclusions / Outlook
5. Conclusions / Outlook