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Title

Allard Castelein, CEO Port of Rotterdam Authority

19 June 2014

Energy scenarios for

the port of Rotterdam Erasmus Energy Forum 2014

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Content

1) Overview of the port

2) Market circumstances

3) Energy scenarios

4) Opportunities

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Pernis, Botlek and Europoort

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Rotterdam oil hub

Approx. 100 million tonnes of crude oil each year

100

50

7

28

15

10 refineries supplied via Rotterdam

Rotterdam

Cologne

Antwerp

Flushing

Rotterdam

Gelsenkirchen

Rotterdam

Antwerp

Rotterdam

Rotterdam

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Challenging market circumstances

• Shale gas revolution in USA ►►►

investments European chemical industry

under pressure

• New refineries in USA,

Middle East, Asia

• This leads to strong

competition: around 30%

too much refining capacity

in Europe

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Energy scenarios

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Rotterdam energy scenarios

BIG COUNTRIES AND

COMPANIES DOMINATE

DIVERSITY OF PLAYERS

AND SOLUTIONS

RADICAL INNOVATIONS

SPEEDING UP TRANSITION

Power Fusion Unlimited

Short term economic interests prevail Balanced approach economy –

climate

Climate change is perceived as an

urgent problem

Low CO2 emission prices Steady rise CO2 emission prices Transition is seen as an opportunity

Hardly any climate change policy;

Fossil energy dominates

Gradual transition to more sustainable

energy sources

Solar power breaks through;

public authorities co-invest in

infrastructure

Large power plants Energy production both central and

local Strong rise in local energy production

Great pressure on energy intensive

industry

Some energy-intensive industry

moves out, some in transition (to

biochemicals)

Intelligent networks provide industry

with efficient energy

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Implications 2040

Power Fusion Unlimited

Oil Small decrease 35% decrease 50% decrease

Biofuels No growth after 2020 Growth continues Firm growth; 2nd and 3rd

generation biofuels

Coal Small decrease 50% decrease Mostly phased out

LNG Power plants for peak demand More LNG for electricity;

transport fuel

Small amount for electricity;

fuel for shipping

Biomass Small growth; for co-firing Growth through conversion

coal-fired power plants

Biomass as back-up for

solar/wind

CO2 Prices low;

only EOR and green houses

Prices rise slowly but steadily

to € 40/t; CCS and EOR

Prices high; Industry becomes

more sustainable

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All scenarios show no regret

investments in:

• Energy infrastructure

(e.g. steam, residual

heat)

• CO2 infrastructure

• Energy efficiency

• Product innovation

(e.g. biochemicals)

• LNG

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Thank you !