9/27/2013 - No more than one trillion metric tons of carbon could be burned and gases released into the atmosphere if planetary warming is to be kept below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the level of preindustrial times.

9/27/2013 - It’s still possible to avoid the worst climate impacts if global emissions to peak by 2020 at the latest (and the earlier the better), with substantial declines in emissions afterwards.

One trillion tons

2020

1950

0

1oC

2000 2200 2150 2100 2050

RCP8.5 Business-as-usual 2.2 trillion tons carbon

3oC

2oC

8oC

7oC

6oC

5oC

4oC

RCP6.0 emissions peak 2080 1.6 trillion tons carbon

RCP4.5 emissions peak 2040-50 1.3 trillion tons carbon

Incr

ease

in A

vera

ge G

loba

l Tem

pera

ture

Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

2013

1950

0

1oC

2000 2200 2150 2100 2050

3oC

2oC

8oC

7oC

6oC

5oC

4oC

RCP2.6 0.8 trillion tons carbon emissions peak 2020

Incr

ease

in A

vera

ge G

loba

l Tem

pera

ture

Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

2013

RCP8.5 Business-as-usual 2.1 trillion tons carbon

RCP6.0 emissions peak 2080 1.4 trillion tons carbon

RCP4.5 emissions peak 2040-50 1.2 trillion tons carbon

THE OPPORTUNITY

Urban environments emit 75% of all global GHGs

will be constructed in cities worldwide. of new and rebuilt buildings

Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.

THE OPPORTUNITY

80 billion m2 (900 billion ft2)

By 2030, over

Sources: UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.

An area equal to 60% of the entire building stock of the world,

60% with energy and emissions patterns

locked-in for 80 to 120 years!

China US / Canada Other Emerging

% S

hare

of G

row

th

30%

20%

10%

Global Floor Space Growth (2012 – 2030) Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012.

India Latin America

Middle East Africa

38%

15%

12%

9% 9% 9%

China • US/Canada

53%

Western Europe

Other Developed

4% 4%

2015

2020

COP 21

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

+5% to -15%

-70% to -85%

-55% to -70%

-35% to -55%

-15% to -35%

ZERO

ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS

CO2 EMISSIONS TARGETS (baseline 2015)

-85% to -100%

1. Developed Countries (annual) Renovate 1% - 2% of building stock 50% energy reduction

2. Developing Countries (annual) Renovate .5% - 1% of building stock 50% energy reduction

4. Establish Financing Facility (Developing Countries)

Finance items 2 and 3 above.

3. Build New to the Following Targets (All Countries)

70% energy reduction in 2015 80% energy reduction in 2020 90% energy reduction in 2025 ZNE in 2030

ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS

2020 emissions peak

Reduction targets range

RCP2.6 1500

2000

1000 CO

2 EM

ISSI

ON

S

(mill

ion

met

ric to

ns)

0

500

2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030

ROADMAP 20/80: Building Sector Zero CO2 Emissions in 2080

2020 2000 2010

emissions 2000 - 2015

2015

Source: Architecture 2030: Data adapted from the World Bank CO2 emissions from residential buildings and commercial and public services; and the EIA International Energy Outlook 2013.

2500

ROADMAP

Global Building Sector

3000

3500

PROGRESS?

2007

Sec. 433 of EISA

Fossil Fuel Reduction 55% - 2010 65% - 2015 80% - 2020 90% - 2025 100% - 2030

Seattle

Zero Net Energy for Residential Buildings by 2020 Zero Net Energy for Commercial Buildings by 2030

CALIFORNIA’S COMMITMENT

Unique private/public partnerships

!   Property owners and managers

!   Local governments

!   Business/community stakeholders

•  SEATTLE  •  CLEVELAND  •  PITTSBURGH  •  LOS  ANGELES  •  DENVER  

TORONTO  DALLAS  

DETROIT  

FT.  WORTH  

PHOENIX  SAN  ANTONIO  

SAN  FRANCISCO  WASHINGTON,  DC  SYRACUSE  

ITHICA  

ANN  ARBOR  ATLANTA  

ALBUQUERQUE  STAMFORD  

EIA AEO 2013

48

44

36 (908 Mtoe)

52

QBtu Quadrillion Btu

Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030

-16.8 QBtu

40 (1008 Mtoe)

EIA AEO 2014

(early release)

310 – 1000MW

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

56 (1412 Mtoe)

EIA AEO 2013

48

44

36 (908 Mtoe)

52

QBtu Quadrillion Btu

Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030

-16.8 QBtu

40 (1008 Mtoe)

EIA AEO 2013 best available demand technology

EIA AEO 2014

(early release)

-6.9 QBtu

310 – 1000MW

128 – 1000MW

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

56 (1412 Mtoe)

EIA AEO 2013

48

44

36 (908 Mtoe)

52

QBtu Quadrillion Btu

Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030

-16.8 QBtu

40 (1008 Mtoe)

2013

$4.61 Trillion

$560 Billion

$1.94 Trillion EIA AEO 2013

best available demand technology

EIA AEO 2014

(early release)

-6.9 QBtu

310 – 1000MW

128 – 1000MW

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

56 (1412 Mtoe)

Sustainable / Zero Carbon

URBANIZATION

Step 2.

Step 1.

GETTING TO ZERO CARBON

ZERO CARBON

Information

Technology

Renewables 20%-30%

Step 1.

Step 2.

GETTING TO ZERO CARBON

ZERO CARBON

Design & Planning • Sustainable • Adaptable 70%-80% (no cost / low cost)

INFORMATION GAP • Highly technical

• Compartmentalized • Limited applicability

• Limited audience • Inaccessible format

Bridge the GAP

• Global in scope • Local in application

• User friendly / visual

• Freely accessible • Interconnected across all scales

• Mitigation / adaptation

REGION

CITY / TOWN

DISTRICT SITE

BUILDING

Bridge the GAP

2030 Palette www.2030palette.org