Edward Mazria FAIA / FRAIC

Architecture 2030

EMISSIONS

THE CHALLENGEACTIONS?

2000195019001850

30

20

15

10

5

0

25

billion metric tons CO2 Emitted Worldwide

Source: Oak Ridge National laboratory; Graph – New York Times

2000195019001850

400

360

340

320

300

280

380

CO2 (ppm) 410 ppmCO2 Atmospheric ConcentrationSource: NASA

2000195019001850

Urban environments are responsible for 75%of all human-produced global greenhouse gas emissions.

New York City 71%

CITY % emissions from buildings

Seoul 63%

Pittsburgh 81%

London 75%

Washington DC 76%

Mumbai 60%

Beijing 53%

Copenhagen 76%

Source: UN Habitat, Paulson Inst., city data, etc.

400

360

340

320

300

280

380

CO2 (ppm)

2000 2010 2020 2040 20501990

Global Building Energy Use (site energy use in Quads)

IEA – Building Energy Outlook to 2050

95

110

125

140

155

170

80

2030

2000195019001850

400

360

340

320

300

280

380

CO2 (ppm)

45% INCREASE IN BUILDING SECTOR EMISSIONS SINCE 1990

Global Building Energy Use by Fuel Type (source energy in Quads)

EIA IEO 2017

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

74%

26%

FOSSIL FUELS (oil, gas, coal)

15% HYDRO (+ other)

8% NUCLEAR

3% RENEWABLES (solar, wind)

2016

400

360

340

320

300

280

380

CO2 (ppm)

2000195019001850

160

December 12, 2015

reach ZERO emissions by 2050 Peak CO2 emissions by 2020, and

2.67 billion peopleBy 2060, world population is expected to increase by about

Source: World Bank

2.75 billion peopleBy 2060, world urban population is expected to increase by about

Source: UN Population Division

absorbing the entire population growth estimate.

1.5 million peopleare being added to cities worldwide.

Or, every week about

Source: UN Population Division

223 billion m2Today, global building floor area is about

Source: Global Status Report, GABC

230 billion m2By 2060, global building floor area will increase by

or double the current worldwide building stock.

Source: Global Status Report, GABC

About 40%, or 92 billion m2, will be built in the next 15 years –an area greater than all the buildings in the Western Hemisphere

and the 28 countries of the European Union combined.

EFFORT IMPACTSCALE SCALEACT NOW!2030 2030X X

OPERATIONS

1990

3,000

4,000

5,000

2,000

Millio

ns o

f k

Wh

0

1,000

1992 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994

SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS

CONSUMPTION (Commercial/Institutional Buildings)Source: California Energy Commission

2010 2006 2008 2012

80

120

Millio

ns o

f T

he

rms

160

Electricity

Natural Gas

2014 2016

40

0

California:2014 - 2015

Record warm years

1990

1,200

1,600

2,000

800

Millio

ns o

f k

Wh

0

400

1992 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994

SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS

CONSUMPTION (Residential Buildings)Source: California Energy Commission

2010 2006 2008 2012

120

160

80

Millio

ns o

f T

he

rms

80

200

Electricity

Natural Gas

2014 2016

0

California:2014 - 2015

Record warm years

2003

60,000

70,000

80,000

50,000

Millio

ns o

f k

Wh

0

40,000

2004 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005

LOS ANGELES COUNTY ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(Buildings)Source: California Energy Commission

2013 2011 2012

90,000

2014

2,500

3,000

3,500

2,000 Millio

ns o

f T

he

rms

1,500

4,000

Electricity

Natural Gas

1990

200,000

250,000

300,000

150,000

Millio

ns o

f kW

h

0

100,000

CALIFORNIA ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(Buildings)Source: California Energy Commission

350,000

1992 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 2010 2006 2008 2012 2014

Millio

ns o

f T

herm

s

ELECTRICITY

NATURAL GAS

California:2014 - 2015

Record warm years

12,000

14,000

16,000

10,000

8,000

18,000

1995

1000

1200

1400

800

Tri

llio

n B

tu

0

600

1997 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999

NEW YORK STATE ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(Residential and Commercial Buildings)

Source: Energy Information Administration

2015 2011 2013

1600

Residential

Commercial

1995

250

300

350

200

Tri

llio

n B

tu

0

150

1997 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999

COLORADO ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(Residential and Commercial Buildings)

Source: Energy Information Administration

2015 2011 2013

400

Residential

Commercial

1995

600

800

1000

400

Tri

llio

n B

tu

0

200

1997 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999

PENNSYLVANIA ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(Residential and Commercial Buildings)

Source: Energy Information Administration

2015 2011 2013

1200

Residential

Commercial

1995

600

800

1000

400

Tri

llio

n B

tu

0

200

1997 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999

ILLINOIS ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(Residential and Commercial Buildings)

Source: Energy Information Administration

2015 2011 2013

1200

Residential

Commercial

1995 2000 2005 2015

38

36

32

40

QBtuQuadrillion Btu

Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

U.S. Building Operations Energy Consumption

34

2030 Challenge 2005

2010

1990

Pe

tajo

ule

s(T

rilli

on

Btu

)

0

CANADA

Building Energy ConsumptionSource: Natural Resources Canada

750(710)

1992 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 2010 2006 2008 2012 2014

950(900)

1,150(1,090)

1,350(1,279)

1,550(1,469)

Residential

Commercial

2000

200(7.9)

250(9.9)

300(11.9)

150(5.9)

Mto

e(Q

btu

)

0

100(4.0)

2002 2010 2008 2006 2004

EU–28 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(Buildings)Source: European Commission, Energy Consumption and Efficiency Trends in the EU–28

2012

350(13.9)

2014

Residential

Commercial

EUROPE:2014 warmestyear on record

2000

150

200

100

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

Mtc

e)

0

50

CHINA BUILDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(2001 - 2014)Source: Building Energy Research Center Tsinghua University

250

2002 2014 2012 2100 200820062004

Northern Urban Heating

Residential Rural

Public /Commercial

Urban Residential

1980

30

40

20

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

Mto

e)

0

10

INDIA BUILDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(1980 - 2012)Source: TERI Energy and Environment and Overview 2014/2015

50

1985 2015 2010 2005 200019951990

Source: Architecture 2030, Adapted from IEA – Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017

Building Energy Codes

or codes

or codes

Africa

18.0

57.2India

15.8Southeast Asia15.6

North America

38.1Western

Europe

29.8

Eurasia

9.8

JapanKorea 9.8

AustraliaNew Zealand

2.1

Latin AmericaCaribbean

19.3

MiddleEast 8.0

Source: Architecture 2030; Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016

Existing Building Floor Area (2015, Billion m2)

China

BUILDING STOCK

or codes

Building Floor Area Growth 2016 to 2030 (Billion m2)

Source: Architecture 2030; Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016

Africa

12.4

China

22.1India16.3 Southeast

Asia8.2

North America

9.0

Western Europe 4.5

Eurasia

3.3

JapanKorea 1.1

AustraliaNew Zealand

1.1

Latin AmericaCaribbean

9.8

MiddleEast 4.7

BUILDING GROWTH

or codes

Africa

25.6

China

5.3India

25.5 Southeast Asia8.4

North America

9.8

Western Europe 2.6

Eurasia

1.8

JapanKorea 0.2

AustraliaNew Zealand

0.7

Latin AmericaCaribbean

14.0

MiddleEast 5.6

Building Floor Area Growth 2030 to 2050 (Billion m2)

Source: Architecture 2030; Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016

BUILDING GROWTH

OPERATIONS

SWorldwide zero-net-carbon building energy codes for commercial,

institutional, and mid- to high-rise

residential buildings and major

renovations

OPERATIONS

S

On-site and/or Off-siteRenewable Energy

Efficiency +

OPERATIONS

S

On-site and/or Off-siteRenewable Energy

Efficiency +Nearly Zero Energy + On-site/OffsiteRenewables

59 International and Chinese Firms Sign

Historic Accord to Tackle Climate Change

Nearly Zero Energy + On-site/Offsite

Renewables

59 International and Chinese Firms Sign

Historic Accord to Tackle Climate Change

NZEB (Nearly Zero Energy Building) Very high energy performance building with energy produced by renewable sources on-site or nearby.

New public buildings NZEB Dec. 31 2018 All new buildings NZEB by Dec. 31, 2020

DIRECTIVE 2010/31/EU

U.S. & International ZERO Code Standards

New public buildings NZEB Dec. 31 2018 All new buildings NZEB by Dec. 31, 2020

DIRECTIVE 2010/31/EU

NZEB (Nearly Zero Energy Building) Very high energy performance building with energy produced by renewable sources on-site or nearby.

IGCC; California Energy Code 2019

Prescriptive Path

BUILDING ENVELOPE

HVAC

LIGHTING

Requirements for minimum building energy efficiency

Performance Path Modeled energy performance meets or exceeds the minimum building energy efficiency requirements

OTHER EQUIPMENT

ASHRAE 90.1 2016 (minimum)

PNNL

COMcheck

• Trade-Off Option

• Prescriptive Req. MODELING

• EnergyPlus

• DOE - 2Base

building

MEETING THE CODE

Meeting the

Prescriptive Path

BUILDING ENVELOPE

HVAC

LIGHTING

Requirements for minimum building energy efficiency

Performance Path Modeled energy performance meets or exceeds the minimum building energy efficiency requirements

OTHER EQUIPMENT

ASHRAE 90.1 2016 (minimum)

Estimated Energy Consumption

Creates a predictable and reliablemarket for renewable energy.

On-site and/or Off-siteRenewable Energy Required

Calculator

Development supported by the California Governor’s Officeand California Energy Commission

Development supported by the California Governor’s Officeand California Energy Commission

Sannounces strong support for the

127 Components throughout the U.S. and abroad.AIA has over 90,000 members and

POLICIES & REGULATIONS

Annual energy upgrade rate(efficiency, renewables, electrification):

• 1.5% - 2% developing countries

• 2% - 3% developed countries

Thousandspledges, incentives, financing plans, programs

Efficiency upgrades of 0.5% - 1% of the existing building stock annually

Policies for Existing Buildings

Seattle, WA

2.8% of Seattle buildings (> 20k sf) produce 45% of building sector GHG emissions

Bronx

Queens

Brooklyn

Staten Island

Manhattan

2.7% of NYC’s buildings (> 50k sf) produce 48% of building sector GHG emissions

New York City

Los Angeles

San Francisco, CA

Boston, MA

Minneapolis, MN

Phoenix, AZ

Philadelphia, PA

Vancouver, BC

Chicago, IL

Building energy efficiency improvements cost about 75% less when undertaken during a capital improvement cycle.

Existing Buildings Policies

Existing Buildings Policies

Big Buildings Policy Small Buildings Policy

• Require energy upgrade by 2030(efficiency, renewables, and/or electrification)

• Require zero emissions by 2050

Integrate a energy upgrade at

building intervention points:

• seismic or flooding resilience upgrade

• zoning or use change (within 2 years)

• point-of-sale (within 2 years)

Provide incentives (ZNC & early adopters)

• fast track permitting

• low interest loans

• tax abatements

• rebates

OPERATIONS

2020 2035 2050

1000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

MM

mt

CO

2

0YEAR

TOTAL EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL NEW CONSTRUCTION2020 to 2050 (business as usual)

Source: Architecture 2030, Adapted from EIA AEO 2017 and Global ABC, Global Status Report 2017

EMBODIED CARBON OPERATIONAL CARBON

20,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

MM

mt

CO

2

0

TOTAL EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL NEW CONSTRUCTION(business as usual)

Source: Architecture 2030, Adapted from EIA AEO 2017 and Global ABC, Global Status Report 2017

EMBODIEDCARBON 2020 - 2050

OPERATIONALCARBON

2020 - 2050

48% 52%

EmbodiedCarbon

Life Cycle AssessmentsEnvironmental Product Declarations

Attribute-Based Embodied Carbon

MaterialStandards & Specifications

ConcreteSteelWoodGlassEtc.

Prescriptive Path

Performance Path

Attribute-Based Embodied Carbon

Modeling Software

CONCRETE • STEEL • WOOD • INSULATION

CONCRETE • STEEL • WOOD • INSULATION

EC3 by Skanska, coming in 2019Partners – CLF and C Change Labs

Supporter – Microsoft

SZero-Net-Carbon building energy codes

adopted and enforced worldwide by

2020

POLICIES & REGULATIONS

at building intervention points.

Zero-Net-Carbon by 2050

SPECIFICATIONS & STANDARDS

CARBON CALCULATOR