POLS4985Nation-building

Who am I?

Dr. Gregory C. DixonSpecialty – International RelationsAreas of interest / research:

International InstitutionsConflict ManagementGlobalization and Global Governance

Office Hours and Contact

Office: Pafford 125Office Hours:

Before class (aprox 11:30 – class)After class (as needed)and by appointment

Email: gdixon@westga.edu

Online Content

http://www.westga.edu/~gdixonUnder “current courses” pick POLS4506

CourseDenAll course informationElectronic Submission of Assignments

Learning OutcomesAnalyze the role of nation-building in the contemporary international system Assess the types of nation-building efforts undertaken by both the international community and by individual nationsAssess the minimum resource requirements for a providing the conditions for successful nation-buildingAppraise the challenges to nation-buildingAppraise conditions for success in nation-building effortsAssess the potential for nation building as part of an effort to reduce conflict in the world of the 21st century.

Assignments

Commentary Papers (4) 25% each

Commentary Papers

10 questionsYou must answer 4 questionsYou may answer 5 and drop the lowest score

Answers should be 3 - 4 single spaced pages

Grading

90% and up = A80 – 89% = B70 – 79% = C60 – 69% = D59% and below = F

No curves or mathematical adjustments will be applied to the grades

Assumption of Adulthood

All students are assumed to be adultsYou are expected to familiarize yourself with the requirements of the course You are expected to meet the requirements of the courseIt is expected that you will do the required reading for the course. It is expected that you will complete all required assignments.

Class Participation

Daily discussionDiscussion will be based on the discussion questions

Late or Missed Assignments

Late assignments will suffer a penalty of one letter grade for each business day lateThe commentary papers are take-home, so extensions will be extremely rareAbsolutely no extensions will be given for the final commentary paper due date

Special Needs

Students with special needs as identified by the University will be accommodated in accordance with University policy

Attendance

Attendance will not be taken and is not required as part of the course grade Attendance is vitalMissing lectures may significantly reduce their chances of passing the courseIt is the responsibility of the student to get the notes from that day of class from another student in the class

Acts of the Gods

On very rare occasions truly terrible things happenIf such an event happens, don't wait until the last day of the class to deal with it

Email Communication & Privacy

Nothing related to grades, exams, or any other course information specific to a student will be discussed via regular email - period Grades and related information will only be discussed via one of these methods:

In person during office hours or after classVia the CourseDen email system

Classroom Decorum

Please arrive on timePlease turn off any device that makes noise Please do not read the newspaper, sleep, etc. during the class timeMutual respect and politeness is required in the classroom at all timesViolations of appropriate classroom decorum will result in penalties

Academic HonestyAll students are required to be aware of the University rules regarding academic honesty. Cheating, fabrication, and/or plagiarism of any kind will not be tolerated. Any student caught committing any violation of the Honor Code on any assignment will receive an F in the course and will be reported to the University for further action as per University policy The professor reserves the right to seek the harshest possible penalty for any and all violations regardless of the value of the individual assignment

Academic Honesty

If you are unsure as to what constitutes academic dishonesty, please consult the University of West Georgia Student HandbookIgnorance of the Code will not be accepted as an excuse for violations of itMany things which are perfectly acceptable in high school are considered cheating in collegeIf you have a question about cheating, ask, don’t just assume that you are ok

Nationbuilding

Basic Concepts and Frameworks

What is Nation-Building?

The basic subject of the course sounds simpleNation + Building

Building the basic infrastructure of a functioning state

Problems of Definition

There are lots of terms usedNation-buildingState-buildingStability OperationsEtc.

We will not split hairs in this course

Potential Nation-Building Cases

Cases where NB is a policy optionPost-conflictPost-disaster (natural or man-made)Failed statesFragile states

Each case offers challenges

Who Nation-Builds?

Nation StatesIGO’sNGO’sMNC’sCoalitions of some or all of the above

NB Is Not New

Pharonic Egypt used NB 5,000+ years agoThe US has engaged in NB efforts since the late 1800’s

NB Is Not Mysterious

The basics are widely knownWe will cover them in this classThe world community knows how to engage in successful NB efforts

The Structure of the Course

Start conceptualParis and Sisk

Broaden the modelGhani and Lockhart

From theory to applicationDobbins, et al.

Challenges

Applying specific logic broadlyCan we apply ideas across models?How do the theories fit our cases?

Moving from theory to practiceIdeas are fun, but you need to make them work if they are to matter

There Is No Rabbit

At the end of the class, there will be no resolution of your questionsYou will know more about the subjectYou will probably have more questions than when you startedBut it will be fun anyway…

What’s A Nation & Why Are We Building One?

The Nation-State in the 21st Century

The Nation-State

Combination of two conceptsNation• A group of people with a shared identity

State• A geographic space ruled by a central

governing authority

Nation-State Characteristics

Geographically fixed locationRecognized governmentSovereigntyMonopoly on the use of force within boundariesPopulation is made up of people with a “national identity”

Sovereignty

No outside authority can force a state to actA foundation of international law

Enshrined in the UN Charter

Reality Check

Most states loosely fit the definitionMany nation-states do not fully fit the description

Identity conflict is a leading cause of civil warSecessionist movements are commonSome nations lack effective government

Building A Nation-State

NB seeks to construct functioning nation-states Functioning does not equal perfect

Central Problems

How can an outside power build a truly sovereign state?And why would they?

A Second Reality Check

The world is complicatedThere are many actors in the NB processThese actors interact with one anotherTheir interactions affect the outcomeNot everyone likes order

Herding Cats

Intervenors are not unitaryPolicy makersPolicy implementersPolitical supporters in the homelandVarious interest groups

Herding Cats

States targeted for NB are not unitaryAll actors seek advantage

Local elites use the intervenor to their advantageIntervenor ignorance makes it worseNot all actors want effective government• Conflict can be beneficial• Sides may prefer conflict to peace

Spoiler Alert

Spoilers may seek to foil NB effortsGroups want a better dealGroups fear marginalization in new orderGroups fear prosecution or worse in new orderPower may be lost in a new system

The Problem

Building a nation-state requires support from many actorsSome will never accept the new order

Good Enough Solutions

You will never get perfectionIt’s the real worldYour perfection is not everyone’s perfection

You need to settle for “good enough”

Good enough governance to keep people content to support the new order

What Is Good Enough?

Physical securityFoodBasic stability / predictabilityRule of lawThe right economic directionHope

Getting to Good Enough

Local leadersLocal institutionsLocal participationLocal economic development

All of which will be built by outsiders

Nobody Likes An Outsider

The problem of external intervenors

The “Other” Problem

Humans separate “in” and “out” groupsWe do not easily trust those who are from the out groupThis is a factor of biology

NB Requires Outside Intervention

The intervenor will always be an outsiderThis will generate tension and make the job harder

Difficulty Factor

The degree of difficulty for the intervenor varies

Nature of intervention effortHistoric contextCultural contextVarious other identity factors

Uncontrollable Elements

HistoryIdentityGeography

Controllable Elements

ResourcesCommunicationPreparation

Control What Can Be Controlled

Effective preparation can mitigate the problems of being an outsiderTransparency can make a significant impact

Local Knowledge

Successful NB efforts requires local knowledge

Knowing the contextSpeaking the languageKnowing who matters

Local knowledge can be developed or rented

Renting has risks

Gaining Support

There is a window of 12 – 18 months to build goodwillEffective early action helps overcome the outsider problemCompetence goes a long wayRespecting local issues goes a long way

Local Talent

Find and recruit local talent“the native face” problemIntercultural problems must be overcomeBalance of external plan and local inputIncorporation of key groups

Transition

Planned transfer from outsider to localsThis is very hard to manageHard to balance

Outsider imposes a system that must become entrenchedLocals must be given enough power to promote acceptanceLocals may not like the new system

Balance

You cannot eliminate the outsider problemYou can reduce its impact with good planningThe trick is to balance a wide range of elements in a very complex process

Safety First

Establish security or go home

Security

Basic safety from harm is a necessary foundationNB must provide security in order to be successfulThis is the foundation on which the rest of the NB actions are built

Components of Security

Peacekeeping / Peace enforcementLaw enforcement / civil orderCreation or reform of local security institutions

Training of militaryTraining of law enforcementProvision of basic security during training

Peacekeeping

The sides in a conflict have made peaceNB effort is in support of this peaceMost or all sides have ceased fightingThis makes it easier to accomplish

Can reform rather than create institutionsFewer troops are needed

Peace Enforcement

You are imposing peace in the NB effortMost or all sides are still fightingSecurity is harder to achieve

NB must create the local forcesNB must create security institutionsThis requires many more soldiers

Timing

Security cannot waitIt must be established immediately in order to be effectiveDelay give opponents time to organizeDelay undermines credibility

Force Size and Composition

You need enough people or you will failIf you do not have the personnel you cannot provide the services

Numbers

Soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants:Peacetime, stable state: .5Peacekeeping: 2Peace enforcement: 13

Afghanistan: 24,000,000 people in 2001

312,000 minimum force for peace enforcement

The Footprint Problem

You need enough troops to do the jobA strong presence of outsider troops can lead to resentmentNB efforts must have enough troops, but they must tread carefully

Force Composition

Soldiers EngineersTrainers (military, police, judiciary, etc.)Bureaucrats / administratorsCommunity relations personnel

Duration Problem

Local forces need to be trained rapidlyIneffective local forces feed problemsThe longer the transition to local policing takes, the more likely resistance will grow

The Security Problem

Costs are high, so military forces are likely to be under-resourcedThis potentially undermines missions before they startMost militaries are not intended to be police forces

It’s the Economy, Stupid

The political economy of NB

Markets

The market always functionsExchange takes placePeople make moneyPeople lose money

Markets adaptConditions create incentives for action or inaction

Complex Influence of Markets

Economic conditions in the NB target stateEconomic conditions in the intervenorGlobal market conditionsEach of these is constantly changing

Target State

Pre-NB economic foundationsNatural resourcesWorkforce compositionSize of populationGeographic locationReason NB is necessary

This provides the starting point

The Intervenor

Size of economyDiversity of economyWorkforce compositionDistance from NB targetEconomic interest in NB target

Global Economy

NB target place in global economyFoundationPotential

Intervenor place in global economyOverall market conditions

The Status Quo Ante

Conditions when NB starts matterState of economic infrastructureSize and scope of informal economyIntegration of armed groups into economic activityEconomic history / tradition

Immediate Problems

Jobs, Jobs, JobsEconomic stabilityEconomic growthEconomic development

The Peril of Great Expectations

Time to get economy working is greater than the golden windowMarkets must shift to the new realityThis takes timeTransition costs are high

Someone must pay them

Dependence

Short-term support by intervenor can easily lead to dependenceNB requires massive intervention through central planningCentral planning is not good at economic growthThe balance is hard to strike

Basic Conditions for Success

Civil orderRule of lawFinancial / banking systemReasonable security of infrastructure

Road, rail, and water transportElectricity

The Perverse Incentive Problem

Failed states are profitable for the fewThese few often have trouble in the transition

Skill set is wrong for stable economySocial conditioning may also be wrong

These groups have an economic incentive to undermine NB efforts

Development Challenge

Outside actors have a poor success rate in economic developmentNB requires the hope of economic progress to succeedNB efforts can also lead to dependenceMistakes will shift the market in unwanted directions

What Works?

No simple solutionsDepends on the conditions in each caseAll NB efforts must craft economic plans based on the specific conditions of the target

Designing Institutions

Who, what, where, when, and how

What Is Mean By Institutions?

The basic structure of the new governmentElectoral rules and basic delineation of core functions (executive, legislative, etc.)Organization of bureaucratic responsibility

Why Democracy?

We like democracyThe people will have a significant say in governmentDemocracies are less war-proneDemocracies have better economic growth over timeWe assume everyone wants to be like the West if only given the chance

Designing A Constitution

Lots of kinds of democracies to choose fromThe constitution should fit two key elements:

The nature of the state it will governThe goals of the intervenor

Majoritarian or Consensus?

Majoritarian: Whoever has 50% + 1 wins

DecisiveFocusedRisks majority tyrannyNo incentive for small groups to support it

Majoritarian or Consensus?

Consensus: very large coalitions needed to rule

InclusiveTend to respect minority rightsSlow to actCan be frustrating to watch in action

Presidential or Parliamentary?

PresidentialSeparation of powersFocus popular attention on one personPotential for divided government

ParliamentaryUnity of executive and legislative powersFocus is on party leaders

Electoral Systems

PluralityMost votes winsMay or may not need 50% + 1Fixed terms

Electoral Systems

Proportional RepresentationParties get seats based on votesCoalitions are often needed to ruleTerm of office can end with “no confidence” vote

Centrality vs. Federalism

CentralityFocus of governing is in central governmentNational government dominates

FederalismRegions have varying degree of flexibility in governingBalance between central and local power

No Easy Solution

All these elements and more are combined to make a constitutionThese elements set how a country is ruledAll have consequencesAll require a choice by the intervenor

The Dependency Problem

Leaving without things falling apart afterwards

The Nation-builder’s Curse

You have to remake a state that can stand on its ownThen you must leave it alone

Its like being a parent, only worse

The Dependence Problem

The NB effort builds a nation that depends on the intervenor to workThe intervenor leaves and the state failsIn the worst case, the intervenor can’t leave without rapid return to fightingDependence is very hard to avoid

The Basic Problem

Intervenor must do a lot early onThis distorts local conditions

Locals must gradually take controlHow?When?What if they fail at first?Who decides what failure is?

Assessing the Dependence Risk

How much do you have to build?Solid past institutions makes it easier• Better foundation on which to build• Trained locals to turn to• Institutions can be reformed

Weak past institutions makes it harder• You must build from scratch• You must train technocrats

The Skill Deficit

Running a country is hardYou need the right skills

ManagerialEngineeringEtc.

These can be hard to find

Brain Drain Problem

The best and brightest have the easiest time leaving

Globalization means they can find work elsewhereSafety and security may make them reluctant to return

This will apply even after NB efforts are underway

Material Dependence

Infrastructure development is expensiveRequires a tax base and effective collection mechanism

Both are likely to be missing when NB startsBoth take time to put in place

Local resources may or may not be readily available

Material Dependence

Intervenor will foot the bill early onMay require many years of bankrolling the effort

Infrastructure is expensiveSome projects are long-term

Organizational Dependence

Intervenor will control the countrySecurityGovernancePotentially even through control of the legal system

This can lead to the institutionalization of dependence

Freedom to Fail (Again)

Ultimately power must transition to the local peopleThis means the power to make real decisions, and suffer consequencesThe potential is there for a return to failure

Perverse Incentives

Local elites may profit from intervenor’s governanceThey may not want power to return to the localsThey have an incentive to prevent the transition

Dependence is Tricky

Managing the dependence problem is hard to doThe intervenor must balance many different elements at onceThe intervenor must be willing to risk exit

Its Not All About Conflict

The problem of state failure

Fragility and Failure

Many states do not fit the normal nation-state model

The rule of law is weakThe writ of government does not runInstitutions do not provide “good enough” governance

The Turbulence Problem

Globalization binds us together in a global systemEvents far away send ripples out that can affect usThere are millions of these events every dayThe result is a “turbulence” in the international system

Turbulence and the State

States must deal with pressure from two levels:

DomesticSystemic

The pressure from both directions is constantSome states break under the pressure

State Fragility

States whose institutions are under stressStates that are losing the ability to function

Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm

State Failure

The state ceases to functionCivil warCollapse

Who Cares?

We do – state failure affects usFragile states generate more turbulenceFailed states generate lots of turbulence

Strong domestic institutions reduce conflict

Absorb and resolve domestic conflictsGenerate coherent policy outcomes

Strong domestic institutions prevent international conflict

Fragile institutions cannot manage domestic conflictsA spillover effect emerges

Domestic conflict bubbles outInternational system feels the impact

Failed institutions permit all manner of problems to cross bordersCreate significant disruptions in the international systemDefy easy solutions

Rational Self-Interest

State failure has a wide impactEffective nation-building can reduce this impace

What Makes A Failed State?

Defining state capacity and governance in the 21st Century

Understanding Governance

Governance = the ability of the state to manage its internal affairsThis is a key role of state institutionsBut this can be defined many ways

Economic growthRule of lawEtc.

The “Sovereignty Gap”

We assume states are sovereign in many ways

International lawDiplomacy

Roughly 1 in 6 states is not“extreme” or “high” fragility

The “Sovereignty Gap”

Our language and assumptions do not reflect reality

Post WWII Paradigm

There is a global governance architecture to tackle the sovereignty gap

Decolonization was going to create thisUS planned for it in post WWII planningIMF, IBRD, UN, GATT

Structural Functionalism

Theory of DevelopmentBuild the right institutional structure and all will be wellUniversal incentives existInstitutions will drive these

At their core, all states are the same

One size fits all

State-Building in Decolonization

Help states set up institutionsProvide development assistanceThe rest takes care of itself

This has a mixed record of success

Post-Cold War Changes

Shift away from the development models of the 1950’sShift to more “holistic” approach

Multifaceted programsEmphasis on implementation, not just institutionsRecognition of failure of one size fits all

NB In Context

NB fits this broader effortThe idea is to construct the institutions of the state in a more general sense

Building Governance

We agree governance is necessaryThe details are subject to debate

No agreed “best” system of governanceNo single “best” system is possible

This is an ongoing debate

What To Build?

Not all agree on the extend of NB efforts

MinimalistMaximalist

What are the essential functions of the state?

The Global Governance Dimension

International capacity for NB

Basic Challenges for GG

SovereigntyCooperationCoordinationResource AllocationInformationCapacity Building

Global Governance Architecture

The mechanisms to provide governance beyond the nation state

Formal: IGO’s, treaties, etc.Informal: NGO’s, cultural ties, etc.

IGO’s

Solve a coordination problemFixed institutions for making collective decisionsFacilitate collective action

Solve a cooperation problemInformation sharingEducation

Global

Cover the whole worldLarge membershipMore resourcesMore calls on resources

UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO, etc.

Regional

Local knowledgeBuild local consensusGreater legitimacyFewer resourcesCredibilityAU, ECOWAS, SADC, ASEAN, MERCOSUR, etc.

NGO’s

All shapes and sizesSpecializedCredibilityBagage

Sovereignty

States yield sovereignty via IGO’sBinding commitmentsEnforcement mechanisms

International Law allows violations of sovereignty

GenocideViolation of preemptory norms

Cooperation

GG provides channels of communication

Reduce uncertaintyBuild working relationshipsDevelop shared interest in “the system”

Norm diffusionGG extends norms and permits a shared language

Simplify cooperation

Coordination

Channels of operationSOP’sAgreed upon rulesBurden sharing

LegitimacyResponsibility

Resource Allocation

Varies widely depending on GG constellationShare burden across statesProvide a structure of cost sharingGenerate revenues from non-participantsCoordinate flows to NGO’s

Information

Best PracticesShared experienceReduced learning curvePromote broader understanding of key issues

Identification of issuesShare information on past cases

Capacity Building

Training of forcesTraining of administratorsTraining of policy staffPromote skill development in local, regional, and international areasNGO, IGO, state responses

GG in Practice

It’s a messThe system works spottily as it standsThings are improving, but slowly

What Works?

The requirements for NB today

Post WWII Context

Over 100 peacekeeping / stabilization missionsDozens of NB missions6 decades of international development effortsExtensive study of domestic institutionsExtensive efforts by IGO’s and NGO’s

NB Is Not A Mystery

The loose parameters of success are knownThe problem has come with implementation

Problem Example

No nation has more experience with post conflict NB in Muslim states than the USBy the measure of the original goals Iraq and Afghanistan have been failures

Lessons From Conflict Studies

The Frozen Conflict ProblemThe Barney Fife ProblemThe Hurting Stalemate“Ripeness”

Frozen Conflicts

NB intervention does not end a conflictThe conflict ceases due to the presence of the intervenorNB efforts fail to deal with underlying tensionsConflict will resume when intervenor leaves

The Barney Fife Problem

Intervenor mean wellBut are not competentCreate unnecessary tensionLack direction in their efforts

The intervenor means well, but can’t follow through

Hurting Stalemates

Allowing a conflict to drag on may make NB efforts easierHurting stalemates demonstrate that neither side can winSides are more willing to accept outside help in resolving the issuePromote peacekeeping-type NB

Ripeness

“Ripeness” is the concept of optimal moments

Most or all parties see a benefit to and end to conflictInternational attention is highDomestic circumstances in intervenor favors planning and resource allocation

Complexity

Many things contribute to NB successMuch of the effort is about controlling what can be controlled

Planning for “known unknowns”Bracing for “unknown unknowns”

Recognizing that the danger is from the storm within

Knowing is Half the Battle

We know what is necessaryWe know that the resources are sometimes there to do itWe know that the hard part is political willNow, how do we make it work?

Establishing Physical Security

Boots on the ground

Basic Security

Short window to establish orderForces needed vary, but are usually military

In unusual cases, police and paramilitary forces may work

Keep order on a day to day basis for the general population

Boots on the Ground

To provide security you need a physical presence

Personnel that can be seenRapid response to disruptions

Sufficient number are keyLack of numbers forces inconsistent actionYou cannot keep order without manpower

Planning

Basic parametersGeographic constraintsLogistic constraintsNature of mission

Force compositionNumbersTypesEquipment

Combat Phases

Suppression of military forces in the initial stagesMay include traditional combat or asymmetric combatMay or may not have a clear endRequires military unitsMay not be required in all cases

Public Security

Immediate establishment of basic protections of the general populationDeterrence of violations of order

Requires a physical presence

Ounce of prevention = pound of cure

Early success eases later phases

Difficulty depends on conditions

DDR

DisarmamentDemobilization

Can be tricky depending on other conditions

ReintegrationKey to long-term success

Intelligence Gathering

Information must be gathered on the real conditions on the ground

Requires an honest assessmentMay require abandoning older plans

Requires development of a local network

Civic Engagement

Engage the local population in decision makingIdentification of key local playersIntegration of military and reconstruction efforts

Security Institution Building

Reform or construction of basic security institutionsIn most cases, this is a complex processExtent depends on the nature of the NB effortIs part of an integrated institution-building effort (courts, admin, etc.)

Necessary but not Sufficient

Basic security is required for success, but it does not guarantee itFailure to provide security generally leads to failure

Establishing Broad Security

Police forces, predictability, and the rule of law

Long-Term Security

Military forces are a short-term solutionLong-term requires development of indigenous sources of securityPolice, legal system, effective governance institutionsThis is a significant challenge for NB efforts

Interdependence

Security institution efforts are part of the larger institution-building effortProgress in other areas is necessary for securityProgress in security is necessary for other areas

Public Security

Intervenor provides early onUsually with military forcesSupplemented by intervenor police, paramilitary forces, or PMC’s

Transition to indigenous forces requires reform or creation of institutionsTransition will take time

Challenges

VettingTrainingEquipmentInstitutional Development / ReformTies to broader legal systemTies to broader institutions

Vetting

Sorting through the existing institutions and personnelEstablishing vetting standards

Who cannot join the new forces?Who will lead them?• Local• National

Training

Establishing training standardsRequires link to legal institutionsRequires building of training infrastructure

Often initially done by expatriatesNeed to train indigenous trainersNeed to train indigenous leaders

Equipment

What sort of equipment?Type of gearSufficient gear for the job

Who pays?Infrastructure

PhysicalInstitutional

Institutional Development

Reform or Deconstruct?Reform – change the existing institutionsDeconstruct – wipe out existing institutions

Focus on missionCivil order and public safety

Link between institutions – interagency cooperation

Ties to Legal System

Public order requires a judicial system

Rule of lawEquality before the lawSufficient infrastructure

Police reform and legal reform must be managed in parallel

Ties to Broader System

Public order is part of larger systemSuccess adds credibility to larger reformsFailure feeds resistance and raises likelihood of failureThe institutional efforts are mutually dependent

Long-Term, Holistic View

Development of institutions takes timeDevelopment of indigenous institutions requires a long-term commitmentPublic order cannot be separated from other effortsPatience is virtuous, but can also breed dependence

Governance

Who is in charge? and do they have a plan?

Teaching Them To Fish

Economic development and the foundation for the future

Assessing Cases

Sierra Leone and Afghanistan

Sierra Leone

Numbers

Population: about 6 million78,000 troops required for peace enforcement18,000 for peacekeeping

GeographyGood trading locationExtractive industries dominate

Nutshell Version

Post-colonial state with standard problemsState fragility emerged in the late 1980’sDomestic efforts to reverse decline failed

Private Peace-building Efforts

MNC’s in mining industry hire PSC’s for basis securityGovernment hires PSC’s to train its army and civil militiasMNC’s support PSC involvement

Failure of Private Efforts

Coordination problem leads to failureParties pursue narrow interest

Mining MNC’s want basic security, but like rents derived from governmentGovernment sought revenues for patronageLocal leaders sought local advantagePSC’s focused on contract obligations

1996 Peace Accords

All foreign forces to leaveRebels and government to negotiate a power-sharing arrangementNigerian support (via ECOWAS) for governmentAccords never implemented due to 1997 coup

From Fragility to Failure

Civil war tears the state apartCoups and counter coups change those in charge

Army colludes with rebelsCivil militias form alternate military structure

ECOWAS intervenes (ECOMOG)

ECOMOG

ECOWAS forces deployed to restore order

Largely fail in initial effortsStalemate emergesForces were substantial (20,000) but poorly equipped

A Bloody Mess

Civil war stalemates with sides holding different areasMineral wealth used to fund rebelsLiberia supports rebelsCoup government allied with rebelsECOWAS supports recognized government, but not coup leaders

Lome Accord

All sides agree to dealEnd to fightingPower sharing in new governmentEnforcement by UN peacekeepers (UNAMSIL)

13,000 troops at peak

British Intervention

Lome fails utterlyUNAMSIL personnel captured and killed by RUFBritish send expeditionary force to evacuate EU citizens (about 1,000 troops)

From Evacuation to NB

British commander decides decisive action could end conflictLobbies UK government to allow expansion of missionBlair agrees to limited expansion of UK role

Ending the Conflict

UK forces take on training and support role

Dismantle old army Build a completely new force with British trainingBegin aggressive action against RUF

Decisive action when challengedTook the war “into the bush”

End Result

Peace restored in Sierra LeoneRetrained army is a national forceState-building efforts continueUN forces have withdrawn as of 2005

Afghanistan

Numbers

Population 30 million390,000 for peace enforcement90,000 for peacekeeping

GeographyLandlocked, weak infrastructureFew resources, but great potential for extractive industry

Civil War

1973 coup begins long civil war1978 Communist coup1979 Soviet invasion1989 Soviet withdrawal1996 Taliban take Kabul2002 US intervention ousts Taliban, establishes interim government

NB Force

2010 Troop Levels

94,000 US troops35,000 allied troops (total)

Total force of 129,000