POLS4985 Nation-building. Who am I? Dr. Gregory C. Dixon Specialty – International Relations Areas...
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Transcript of POLS4985 Nation-building. Who am I? Dr. Gregory C. Dixon Specialty – International Relations Areas...
POLS4985Nation-building
Who am I?
Dr. Gregory C. DixonSpecialty – International RelationsAreas of interest / research:
International InstitutionsConflict ManagementGlobalization and Global Governance
Office Hours and Contact
Office: Pafford 125Office Hours:
Before class (aprox 11:30 – class)After class (as needed)and by appointment
Email: [email protected]
Online Content
http://www.westga.edu/~gdixonUnder “current courses” pick POLS4506
CourseDenAll course informationElectronic Submission of Assignments
Learning OutcomesAnalyze the role of nation-building in the contemporary international system Assess the types of nation-building efforts undertaken by both the international community and by individual nationsAssess the minimum resource requirements for a providing the conditions for successful nation-buildingAppraise the challenges to nation-buildingAppraise conditions for success in nation-building effortsAssess the potential for nation building as part of an effort to reduce conflict in the world of the 21st century.
Assignments
Commentary Papers (4) 25% each
Commentary Papers
10 questionsYou must answer 4 questionsYou may answer 5 and drop the lowest score
Answers should be 3 - 4 single spaced pages
Grading
90% and up = A80 – 89% = B70 – 79% = C60 – 69% = D59% and below = F
No curves or mathematical adjustments will be applied to the grades
Assumption of Adulthood
All students are assumed to be adultsYou are expected to familiarize yourself with the requirements of the course You are expected to meet the requirements of the courseIt is expected that you will do the required reading for the course. It is expected that you will complete all required assignments.
Class Participation
Daily discussionDiscussion will be based on the discussion questions
Late or Missed Assignments
Late assignments will suffer a penalty of one letter grade for each business day lateThe commentary papers are take-home, so extensions will be extremely rareAbsolutely no extensions will be given for the final commentary paper due date
Special Needs
Students with special needs as identified by the University will be accommodated in accordance with University policy
Attendance
Attendance will not be taken and is not required as part of the course grade Attendance is vitalMissing lectures may significantly reduce their chances of passing the courseIt is the responsibility of the student to get the notes from that day of class from another student in the class
Acts of the Gods
On very rare occasions truly terrible things happenIf such an event happens, don't wait until the last day of the class to deal with it
Email Communication & Privacy
Nothing related to grades, exams, or any other course information specific to a student will be discussed via regular email - period Grades and related information will only be discussed via one of these methods:
In person during office hours or after classVia the CourseDen email system
Classroom Decorum
Please arrive on timePlease turn off any device that makes noise Please do not read the newspaper, sleep, etc. during the class timeMutual respect and politeness is required in the classroom at all timesViolations of appropriate classroom decorum will result in penalties
Academic HonestyAll students are required to be aware of the University rules regarding academic honesty. Cheating, fabrication, and/or plagiarism of any kind will not be tolerated. Any student caught committing any violation of the Honor Code on any assignment will receive an F in the course and will be reported to the University for further action as per University policy The professor reserves the right to seek the harshest possible penalty for any and all violations regardless of the value of the individual assignment
Academic Honesty
If you are unsure as to what constitutes academic dishonesty, please consult the University of West Georgia Student HandbookIgnorance of the Code will not be accepted as an excuse for violations of itMany things which are perfectly acceptable in high school are considered cheating in collegeIf you have a question about cheating, ask, don’t just assume that you are ok
Nationbuilding
Basic Concepts and Frameworks
What is Nation-Building?
The basic subject of the course sounds simpleNation + Building
Building the basic infrastructure of a functioning state
Problems of Definition
There are lots of terms usedNation-buildingState-buildingStability OperationsEtc.
We will not split hairs in this course
Potential Nation-Building Cases
Cases where NB is a policy optionPost-conflictPost-disaster (natural or man-made)Failed statesFragile states
Each case offers challenges
Who Nation-Builds?
Nation StatesIGO’sNGO’sMNC’sCoalitions of some or all of the above
NB Is Not New
Pharonic Egypt used NB 5,000+ years agoThe US has engaged in NB efforts since the late 1800’s
NB Is Not Mysterious
The basics are widely knownWe will cover them in this classThe world community knows how to engage in successful NB efforts
The Structure of the Course
Start conceptualParis and Sisk
Broaden the modelGhani and Lockhart
From theory to applicationDobbins, et al.
Challenges
Applying specific logic broadlyCan we apply ideas across models?How do the theories fit our cases?
Moving from theory to practiceIdeas are fun, but you need to make them work if they are to matter
There Is No Rabbit
At the end of the class, there will be no resolution of your questionsYou will know more about the subjectYou will probably have more questions than when you startedBut it will be fun anyway…
What’s A Nation & Why Are We Building One?
The Nation-State in the 21st Century
The Nation-State
Combination of two conceptsNation• A group of people with a shared identity
State• A geographic space ruled by a central
governing authority
Nation-State Characteristics
Geographically fixed locationRecognized governmentSovereigntyMonopoly on the use of force within boundariesPopulation is made up of people with a “national identity”
Sovereignty
No outside authority can force a state to actA foundation of international law
Enshrined in the UN Charter
Reality Check
Most states loosely fit the definitionMany nation-states do not fully fit the description
Identity conflict is a leading cause of civil warSecessionist movements are commonSome nations lack effective government
Building A Nation-State
NB seeks to construct functioning nation-states Functioning does not equal perfect
Central Problems
How can an outside power build a truly sovereign state?And why would they?
A Second Reality Check
The world is complicatedThere are many actors in the NB processThese actors interact with one anotherTheir interactions affect the outcomeNot everyone likes order
Herding Cats
Intervenors are not unitaryPolicy makersPolicy implementersPolitical supporters in the homelandVarious interest groups
Herding Cats
States targeted for NB are not unitaryAll actors seek advantage
Local elites use the intervenor to their advantageIntervenor ignorance makes it worseNot all actors want effective government• Conflict can be beneficial• Sides may prefer conflict to peace
Spoiler Alert
Spoilers may seek to foil NB effortsGroups want a better dealGroups fear marginalization in new orderGroups fear prosecution or worse in new orderPower may be lost in a new system
The Problem
Building a nation-state requires support from many actorsSome will never accept the new order
Good Enough Solutions
You will never get perfectionIt’s the real worldYour perfection is not everyone’s perfection
You need to settle for “good enough”
Good enough governance to keep people content to support the new order
What Is Good Enough?
Physical securityFoodBasic stability / predictabilityRule of lawThe right economic directionHope
Getting to Good Enough
Local leadersLocal institutionsLocal participationLocal economic development
All of which will be built by outsiders
Nobody Likes An Outsider
The problem of external intervenors
The “Other” Problem
Humans separate “in” and “out” groupsWe do not easily trust those who are from the out groupThis is a factor of biology
NB Requires Outside Intervention
The intervenor will always be an outsiderThis will generate tension and make the job harder
Difficulty Factor
The degree of difficulty for the intervenor varies
Nature of intervention effortHistoric contextCultural contextVarious other identity factors
Uncontrollable Elements
HistoryIdentityGeography
Controllable Elements
ResourcesCommunicationPreparation
Control What Can Be Controlled
Effective preparation can mitigate the problems of being an outsiderTransparency can make a significant impact
Local Knowledge
Successful NB efforts requires local knowledge
Knowing the contextSpeaking the languageKnowing who matters
Local knowledge can be developed or rented
Renting has risks
Gaining Support
There is a window of 12 – 18 months to build goodwillEffective early action helps overcome the outsider problemCompetence goes a long wayRespecting local issues goes a long way
Local Talent
Find and recruit local talent“the native face” problemIntercultural problems must be overcomeBalance of external plan and local inputIncorporation of key groups
Transition
Planned transfer from outsider to localsThis is very hard to manageHard to balance
Outsider imposes a system that must become entrenchedLocals must be given enough power to promote acceptanceLocals may not like the new system
Balance
You cannot eliminate the outsider problemYou can reduce its impact with good planningThe trick is to balance a wide range of elements in a very complex process
Safety First
Establish security or go home
Security
Basic safety from harm is a necessary foundationNB must provide security in order to be successfulThis is the foundation on which the rest of the NB actions are built
Components of Security
Peacekeeping / Peace enforcementLaw enforcement / civil orderCreation or reform of local security institutions
Training of militaryTraining of law enforcementProvision of basic security during training
Peacekeeping
The sides in a conflict have made peaceNB effort is in support of this peaceMost or all sides have ceased fightingThis makes it easier to accomplish
Can reform rather than create institutionsFewer troops are needed
Peace Enforcement
You are imposing peace in the NB effortMost or all sides are still fightingSecurity is harder to achieve
NB must create the local forcesNB must create security institutionsThis requires many more soldiers
Timing
Security cannot waitIt must be established immediately in order to be effectiveDelay give opponents time to organizeDelay undermines credibility
Force Size and Composition
You need enough people or you will failIf you do not have the personnel you cannot provide the services
Numbers
Soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants:Peacetime, stable state: .5Peacekeeping: 2Peace enforcement: 13
Afghanistan: 24,000,000 people in 2001
312,000 minimum force for peace enforcement
The Footprint Problem
You need enough troops to do the jobA strong presence of outsider troops can lead to resentmentNB efforts must have enough troops, but they must tread carefully
Force Composition
Soldiers EngineersTrainers (military, police, judiciary, etc.)Bureaucrats / administratorsCommunity relations personnel
Duration Problem
Local forces need to be trained rapidlyIneffective local forces feed problemsThe longer the transition to local policing takes, the more likely resistance will grow
The Security Problem
Costs are high, so military forces are likely to be under-resourcedThis potentially undermines missions before they startMost militaries are not intended to be police forces
It’s the Economy, Stupid
The political economy of NB
Markets
The market always functionsExchange takes placePeople make moneyPeople lose money
Markets adaptConditions create incentives for action or inaction
Complex Influence of Markets
Economic conditions in the NB target stateEconomic conditions in the intervenorGlobal market conditionsEach of these is constantly changing
Target State
Pre-NB economic foundationsNatural resourcesWorkforce compositionSize of populationGeographic locationReason NB is necessary
This provides the starting point
The Intervenor
Size of economyDiversity of economyWorkforce compositionDistance from NB targetEconomic interest in NB target
Global Economy
NB target place in global economyFoundationPotential
Intervenor place in global economyOverall market conditions
The Status Quo Ante
Conditions when NB starts matterState of economic infrastructureSize and scope of informal economyIntegration of armed groups into economic activityEconomic history / tradition
Immediate Problems
Jobs, Jobs, JobsEconomic stabilityEconomic growthEconomic development
The Peril of Great Expectations
Time to get economy working is greater than the golden windowMarkets must shift to the new realityThis takes timeTransition costs are high
Someone must pay them
Dependence
Short-term support by intervenor can easily lead to dependenceNB requires massive intervention through central planningCentral planning is not good at economic growthThe balance is hard to strike
Basic Conditions for Success
Civil orderRule of lawFinancial / banking systemReasonable security of infrastructure
Road, rail, and water transportElectricity
The Perverse Incentive Problem
Failed states are profitable for the fewThese few often have trouble in the transition
Skill set is wrong for stable economySocial conditioning may also be wrong
These groups have an economic incentive to undermine NB efforts
Development Challenge
Outside actors have a poor success rate in economic developmentNB requires the hope of economic progress to succeedNB efforts can also lead to dependenceMistakes will shift the market in unwanted directions
What Works?
No simple solutionsDepends on the conditions in each caseAll NB efforts must craft economic plans based on the specific conditions of the target
Designing Institutions
Who, what, where, when, and how
What Is Mean By Institutions?
The basic structure of the new governmentElectoral rules and basic delineation of core functions (executive, legislative, etc.)Organization of bureaucratic responsibility
Why Democracy?
We like democracyThe people will have a significant say in governmentDemocracies are less war-proneDemocracies have better economic growth over timeWe assume everyone wants to be like the West if only given the chance
Designing A Constitution
Lots of kinds of democracies to choose fromThe constitution should fit two key elements:
The nature of the state it will governThe goals of the intervenor
Majoritarian or Consensus?
Majoritarian: Whoever has 50% + 1 wins
DecisiveFocusedRisks majority tyrannyNo incentive for small groups to support it
Majoritarian or Consensus?
Consensus: very large coalitions needed to rule
InclusiveTend to respect minority rightsSlow to actCan be frustrating to watch in action
Presidential or Parliamentary?
PresidentialSeparation of powersFocus popular attention on one personPotential for divided government
ParliamentaryUnity of executive and legislative powersFocus is on party leaders
Electoral Systems
PluralityMost votes winsMay or may not need 50% + 1Fixed terms
Electoral Systems
Proportional RepresentationParties get seats based on votesCoalitions are often needed to ruleTerm of office can end with “no confidence” vote
Centrality vs. Federalism
CentralityFocus of governing is in central governmentNational government dominates
FederalismRegions have varying degree of flexibility in governingBalance between central and local power
No Easy Solution
All these elements and more are combined to make a constitutionThese elements set how a country is ruledAll have consequencesAll require a choice by the intervenor
The Dependency Problem
Leaving without things falling apart afterwards
The Nation-builder’s Curse
You have to remake a state that can stand on its ownThen you must leave it alone
Its like being a parent, only worse
The Dependence Problem
The NB effort builds a nation that depends on the intervenor to workThe intervenor leaves and the state failsIn the worst case, the intervenor can’t leave without rapid return to fightingDependence is very hard to avoid
The Basic Problem
Intervenor must do a lot early onThis distorts local conditions
Locals must gradually take controlHow?When?What if they fail at first?Who decides what failure is?
Assessing the Dependence Risk
How much do you have to build?Solid past institutions makes it easier• Better foundation on which to build• Trained locals to turn to• Institutions can be reformed
Weak past institutions makes it harder• You must build from scratch• You must train technocrats
The Skill Deficit
Running a country is hardYou need the right skills
ManagerialEngineeringEtc.
These can be hard to find
Brain Drain Problem
The best and brightest have the easiest time leaving
Globalization means they can find work elsewhereSafety and security may make them reluctant to return
This will apply even after NB efforts are underway
Material Dependence
Infrastructure development is expensiveRequires a tax base and effective collection mechanism
Both are likely to be missing when NB startsBoth take time to put in place
Local resources may or may not be readily available
Material Dependence
Intervenor will foot the bill early onMay require many years of bankrolling the effort
Infrastructure is expensiveSome projects are long-term
Organizational Dependence
Intervenor will control the countrySecurityGovernancePotentially even through control of the legal system
This can lead to the institutionalization of dependence
Freedom to Fail (Again)
Ultimately power must transition to the local peopleThis means the power to make real decisions, and suffer consequencesThe potential is there for a return to failure
Perverse Incentives
Local elites may profit from intervenor’s governanceThey may not want power to return to the localsThey have an incentive to prevent the transition
Dependence is Tricky
Managing the dependence problem is hard to doThe intervenor must balance many different elements at onceThe intervenor must be willing to risk exit
Its Not All About Conflict
The problem of state failure
Fragility and Failure
Many states do not fit the normal nation-state model
The rule of law is weakThe writ of government does not runInstitutions do not provide “good enough” governance
The Turbulence Problem
Globalization binds us together in a global systemEvents far away send ripples out that can affect usThere are millions of these events every dayThe result is a “turbulence” in the international system
Turbulence and the State
States must deal with pressure from two levels:
DomesticSystemic
The pressure from both directions is constantSome states break under the pressure
State Fragility
States whose institutions are under stressStates that are losing the ability to function
Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm
State Failure
The state ceases to functionCivil warCollapse
Who Cares?
We do – state failure affects usFragile states generate more turbulenceFailed states generate lots of turbulence
Strong domestic institutions reduce conflict
Absorb and resolve domestic conflictsGenerate coherent policy outcomes
Strong domestic institutions prevent international conflict
Fragile institutions cannot manage domestic conflictsA spillover effect emerges
Domestic conflict bubbles outInternational system feels the impact
Failed institutions permit all manner of problems to cross bordersCreate significant disruptions in the international systemDefy easy solutions
Rational Self-Interest
State failure has a wide impactEffective nation-building can reduce this impace
What Makes A Failed State?
Defining state capacity and governance in the 21st Century
Understanding Governance
Governance = the ability of the state to manage its internal affairsThis is a key role of state institutionsBut this can be defined many ways
Economic growthRule of lawEtc.
The “Sovereignty Gap”
We assume states are sovereign in many ways
International lawDiplomacy
Roughly 1 in 6 states is not“extreme” or “high” fragility
The “Sovereignty Gap”
Our language and assumptions do not reflect reality
Post WWII Paradigm
There is a global governance architecture to tackle the sovereignty gap
Decolonization was going to create thisUS planned for it in post WWII planningIMF, IBRD, UN, GATT
Structural Functionalism
Theory of DevelopmentBuild the right institutional structure and all will be wellUniversal incentives existInstitutions will drive these
At their core, all states are the same
One size fits all
State-Building in Decolonization
Help states set up institutionsProvide development assistanceThe rest takes care of itself
This has a mixed record of success
Post-Cold War Changes
Shift away from the development models of the 1950’sShift to more “holistic” approach
Multifaceted programsEmphasis on implementation, not just institutionsRecognition of failure of one size fits all
NB In Context
NB fits this broader effortThe idea is to construct the institutions of the state in a more general sense
Building Governance
We agree governance is necessaryThe details are subject to debate
No agreed “best” system of governanceNo single “best” system is possible
This is an ongoing debate
What To Build?
Not all agree on the extend of NB efforts
MinimalistMaximalist
What are the essential functions of the state?
The Global Governance Dimension
International capacity for NB
Basic Challenges for GG
SovereigntyCooperationCoordinationResource AllocationInformationCapacity Building
Global Governance Architecture
The mechanisms to provide governance beyond the nation state
Formal: IGO’s, treaties, etc.Informal: NGO’s, cultural ties, etc.
IGO’s
Solve a coordination problemFixed institutions for making collective decisionsFacilitate collective action
Solve a cooperation problemInformation sharingEducation
Global
Cover the whole worldLarge membershipMore resourcesMore calls on resources
UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO, etc.
Regional
Local knowledgeBuild local consensusGreater legitimacyFewer resourcesCredibilityAU, ECOWAS, SADC, ASEAN, MERCOSUR, etc.
NGO’s
All shapes and sizesSpecializedCredibilityBagage
Sovereignty
States yield sovereignty via IGO’sBinding commitmentsEnforcement mechanisms
International Law allows violations of sovereignty
GenocideViolation of preemptory norms
Cooperation
GG provides channels of communication
Reduce uncertaintyBuild working relationshipsDevelop shared interest in “the system”
Norm diffusionGG extends norms and permits a shared language
Simplify cooperation
Coordination
Channels of operationSOP’sAgreed upon rulesBurden sharing
LegitimacyResponsibility
Resource Allocation
Varies widely depending on GG constellationShare burden across statesProvide a structure of cost sharingGenerate revenues from non-participantsCoordinate flows to NGO’s
Information
Best PracticesShared experienceReduced learning curvePromote broader understanding of key issues
Identification of issuesShare information on past cases
Capacity Building
Training of forcesTraining of administratorsTraining of policy staffPromote skill development in local, regional, and international areasNGO, IGO, state responses
GG in Practice
It’s a messThe system works spottily as it standsThings are improving, but slowly
What Works?
The requirements for NB today
Post WWII Context
Over 100 peacekeeping / stabilization missionsDozens of NB missions6 decades of international development effortsExtensive study of domestic institutionsExtensive efforts by IGO’s and NGO’s
NB Is Not A Mystery
The loose parameters of success are knownThe problem has come with implementation
Problem Example
No nation has more experience with post conflict NB in Muslim states than the USBy the measure of the original goals Iraq and Afghanistan have been failures
Lessons From Conflict Studies
The Frozen Conflict ProblemThe Barney Fife ProblemThe Hurting Stalemate“Ripeness”
Frozen Conflicts
NB intervention does not end a conflictThe conflict ceases due to the presence of the intervenorNB efforts fail to deal with underlying tensionsConflict will resume when intervenor leaves
The Barney Fife Problem
Intervenor mean wellBut are not competentCreate unnecessary tensionLack direction in their efforts
The intervenor means well, but can’t follow through
Hurting Stalemates
Allowing a conflict to drag on may make NB efforts easierHurting stalemates demonstrate that neither side can winSides are more willing to accept outside help in resolving the issuePromote peacekeeping-type NB
Ripeness
“Ripeness” is the concept of optimal moments
Most or all parties see a benefit to and end to conflictInternational attention is highDomestic circumstances in intervenor favors planning and resource allocation
Complexity
Many things contribute to NB successMuch of the effort is about controlling what can be controlled
Planning for “known unknowns”Bracing for “unknown unknowns”
Recognizing that the danger is from the storm within
Knowing is Half the Battle
We know what is necessaryWe know that the resources are sometimes there to do itWe know that the hard part is political willNow, how do we make it work?
Establishing Physical Security
Boots on the ground
Basic Security
Short window to establish orderForces needed vary, but are usually military
In unusual cases, police and paramilitary forces may work
Keep order on a day to day basis for the general population
Boots on the Ground
To provide security you need a physical presence
Personnel that can be seenRapid response to disruptions
Sufficient number are keyLack of numbers forces inconsistent actionYou cannot keep order without manpower
Planning
Basic parametersGeographic constraintsLogistic constraintsNature of mission
Force compositionNumbersTypesEquipment
Combat Phases
Suppression of military forces in the initial stagesMay include traditional combat or asymmetric combatMay or may not have a clear endRequires military unitsMay not be required in all cases
Public Security
Immediate establishment of basic protections of the general populationDeterrence of violations of order
Requires a physical presence
Ounce of prevention = pound of cure
Early success eases later phases
Difficulty depends on conditions
DDR
DisarmamentDemobilization
Can be tricky depending on other conditions
ReintegrationKey to long-term success
Intelligence Gathering
Information must be gathered on the real conditions on the ground
Requires an honest assessmentMay require abandoning older plans
Requires development of a local network
Civic Engagement
Engage the local population in decision makingIdentification of key local playersIntegration of military and reconstruction efforts
Security Institution Building
Reform or construction of basic security institutionsIn most cases, this is a complex processExtent depends on the nature of the NB effortIs part of an integrated institution-building effort (courts, admin, etc.)
Necessary but not Sufficient
Basic security is required for success, but it does not guarantee itFailure to provide security generally leads to failure
Establishing Broad Security
Police forces, predictability, and the rule of law
Long-Term Security
Military forces are a short-term solutionLong-term requires development of indigenous sources of securityPolice, legal system, effective governance institutionsThis is a significant challenge for NB efforts
Interdependence
Security institution efforts are part of the larger institution-building effortProgress in other areas is necessary for securityProgress in security is necessary for other areas
Public Security
Intervenor provides early onUsually with military forcesSupplemented by intervenor police, paramilitary forces, or PMC’s
Transition to indigenous forces requires reform or creation of institutionsTransition will take time
Challenges
VettingTrainingEquipmentInstitutional Development / ReformTies to broader legal systemTies to broader institutions
Vetting
Sorting through the existing institutions and personnelEstablishing vetting standards
Who cannot join the new forces?Who will lead them?• Local• National
Training
Establishing training standardsRequires link to legal institutionsRequires building of training infrastructure
Often initially done by expatriatesNeed to train indigenous trainersNeed to train indigenous leaders
Equipment
What sort of equipment?Type of gearSufficient gear for the job
Who pays?Infrastructure
PhysicalInstitutional
Institutional Development
Reform or Deconstruct?Reform – change the existing institutionsDeconstruct – wipe out existing institutions
Focus on missionCivil order and public safety
Link between institutions – interagency cooperation
Ties to Legal System
Public order requires a judicial system
Rule of lawEquality before the lawSufficient infrastructure
Police reform and legal reform must be managed in parallel
Ties to Broader System
Public order is part of larger systemSuccess adds credibility to larger reformsFailure feeds resistance and raises likelihood of failureThe institutional efforts are mutually dependent
Long-Term, Holistic View
Development of institutions takes timeDevelopment of indigenous institutions requires a long-term commitmentPublic order cannot be separated from other effortsPatience is virtuous, but can also breed dependence
Governance
Who is in charge? and do they have a plan?
Teaching Them To Fish
Economic development and the foundation for the future
Assessing Cases
Sierra Leone and Afghanistan
Sierra Leone
Numbers
Population: about 6 million78,000 troops required for peace enforcement18,000 for peacekeeping
GeographyGood trading locationExtractive industries dominate
Nutshell Version
Post-colonial state with standard problemsState fragility emerged in the late 1980’sDomestic efforts to reverse decline failed
Private Peace-building Efforts
MNC’s in mining industry hire PSC’s for basis securityGovernment hires PSC’s to train its army and civil militiasMNC’s support PSC involvement
Failure of Private Efforts
Coordination problem leads to failureParties pursue narrow interest
Mining MNC’s want basic security, but like rents derived from governmentGovernment sought revenues for patronageLocal leaders sought local advantagePSC’s focused on contract obligations
1996 Peace Accords
All foreign forces to leaveRebels and government to negotiate a power-sharing arrangementNigerian support (via ECOWAS) for governmentAccords never implemented due to 1997 coup
From Fragility to Failure
Civil war tears the state apartCoups and counter coups change those in charge
Army colludes with rebelsCivil militias form alternate military structure
ECOWAS intervenes (ECOMOG)
ECOMOG
ECOWAS forces deployed to restore order
Largely fail in initial effortsStalemate emergesForces were substantial (20,000) but poorly equipped
A Bloody Mess
Civil war stalemates with sides holding different areasMineral wealth used to fund rebelsLiberia supports rebelsCoup government allied with rebelsECOWAS supports recognized government, but not coup leaders
Lome Accord
All sides agree to dealEnd to fightingPower sharing in new governmentEnforcement by UN peacekeepers (UNAMSIL)
13,000 troops at peak
British Intervention
Lome fails utterlyUNAMSIL personnel captured and killed by RUFBritish send expeditionary force to evacuate EU citizens (about 1,000 troops)
From Evacuation to NB
British commander decides decisive action could end conflictLobbies UK government to allow expansion of missionBlair agrees to limited expansion of UK role
Ending the Conflict
UK forces take on training and support role
Dismantle old army Build a completely new force with British trainingBegin aggressive action against RUF
Decisive action when challengedTook the war “into the bush”
End Result
Peace restored in Sierra LeoneRetrained army is a national forceState-building efforts continueUN forces have withdrawn as of 2005
Afghanistan
Numbers
Population 30 million390,000 for peace enforcement90,000 for peacekeeping
GeographyLandlocked, weak infrastructureFew resources, but great potential for extractive industry
Civil War
1973 coup begins long civil war1978 Communist coup1979 Soviet invasion1989 Soviet withdrawal1996 Taliban take Kabul2002 US intervention ousts Taliban, establishes interim government
NB Force
2010 Troop Levels
94,000 US troops35,000 allied troops (total)
Total force of 129,000