Scenario modelling:A peri-urban futures initiative

Kath Phelan & Bill Fish

Peri-urban Futures

The research project- Scenario modelling- Rural scenarios- Urban settlement scenarios

Workshop- Group work on developing scenario criteria

Conclusion- Discussion of groups’ scenarios - Applicability of scenario modelling

Peri-urban Futures: New Initiative

2 Year initiative – a collaboration between Spatial Vision, RMIT and La Trobe- Other researchers (University of Melbourne)

- Supporting State and local government

Scenario formulation to support peri-urban planning- Which planning questions?

- Which research concerns?

Sound spatial modelling framework- Robust

- Transparent

- Defensible

Purpose – Rural Landscape Scenario Modelling

Scenario modelling is about:

The testing of alternative policy positions.

Scenario modelling achieves this by exploring three basic questions:

What will happen?

What can happen?

How can a specific target be reached?

Peri-urban Futures Study Area

- 7 Local Government Areas

- Defined by Western and Calder corridors

- 52 settlements including Ballarat & Bendigo

- Covers part of two Regional growth areas, Loddon Mallee South and Central Highlands

Suitable Conceptual Framework

Method: Supply

Rural Land Supply Based Upon:- Land Occupancy, AND- Local Planning Zone Subdivision Provisions

Method: Demand

Victoria in Future 2012 Dwelling Projections 2011-2041

- Dwelling based Rural / Urban Apportionment Rules

Method: The Constraints

Assign a “Constraint” profile to

each Cadastral land parcel:

- Environmental values

- Intensive agriculture

- Climate related impacts

(flood, wildfire risk, sea level rise)

- Prescribed water catchments

- Groundwater management areas

- Heritage values

Impacted (Yes/No) and % Impacted

Native Vegetation = ‘Yes’ Impacted 20%

BMO = ‘Yes’ Impacted 7%

WMO = ‘No’ Impacted 0%

Method: Development Pressure

INFRASTRUCTUREDistance to major roadsDistance to rail commuter nodesDistance to bus nodesAccess to NBN Broadband – Optic FibreAccess to NBN Broadband – Fixed Wireless

DEMOGRAPHICPopulation DensityHistoric population growth (1996-2011)Historic dwelling growth (1996-2011)SEIFA disadvantage indexSEFIA advantage index

ENVIRONMENTDistance from CoastDensity of significant landscapeDensity of vegetationDistance from waterbodies and rivers

SETTLEMENTSDistance from MelbourneDistance to towns (Services weighted)Distance to towns (Population weighted)Distance from townsIdentified Growth Areas (UDP)

….Formerly referred to as ‘Attractiveness’ indicators

Outcomes: Likely rural parcel take-up (2012-2041)

Business as Usual Rural Preservation

Outcomes: Profile of parcels used to satisfy demand (2041)

Bushfire Risk Flood Risk Catchments Groundwater Significant Vegetation Agricultural Land0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Macedon Ranges Shire

Business as Usual Rural Preservation

Dwel

ling

take

-up

(201

1-20

41)

Population re-distribution to urban settlements

Rural Preservation:Capacity of townships to absorb

transferred rural dwelling demandBusiness as Usual

Regional Housing Futures in four towns

Ballarat Bendigo

Bendigo case study

Scenario Criteria Density

Business as usual greenfield

Development at current trend densities

12 dwellings per hectare

Higher density greenfield

Maximum yield of parcels over one hectare

25 dwellings per hectare

Dual occupancy infill Two lot development on existing occupied and vacant residential parcels

13 dwellings per hectare

Activity centre infill Development occurs on sites within 400m radius of BZs

35 dwellings per hectare

Bendigo case study

Scenario Criteria Density

Residential infill Development occurs on R1Z sites identified by CoGB

35 dwellings per hectare

Other redevelopment Residential development occurs on infill sites outside CBD zoned Business and Industrial identified by CoGB

35 dwellings per hectare

CBD development Development on sites determined as appropriate, to heights defined by CBD Strategy

140 dwellings per hectare

Bendigo case study: greenfield

Bendigo case study

Workshop: redistributing projected growth

Where should the region’s 75,661

projected new dwellings go (by

2041)?

- 60,650 in urban settlements

- 15,010 in rural areas

Workshop: redistributing projected growth

Example scenario: Tenement control

Scenario description

- Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties

- New dwellings should instead be built in urban settlements

- Preference for growth in urban settlements along transport corridors

Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?

- 60,650 in urban settlements

- 15,010 in rural areas

Workshop: redistributing projected growth

Scenario criteria

- Urban settlements: particularly Ballarat and Bendigo, also Gisborne, Bacchus Marsh,

Maryborough

- Transport corridors

- Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated water,

sewerage

- Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements

Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?

- 60,650 in urban settlements

- 15,010 in rural areas

Workshop: redistributing projected growth

Rationale for criteria

- Growth in urban settlements: protects rural landscape including agricultural land,

native vegetation and animal species

- Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards eg. Bushfire, flood

- Transport corridors: potential to travel using methods other than car

- Smaller settlements without basic infrastructure cannot support growth

- Higher residential density development: protects existing streetscapes and housing

stock

Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?

- 60,650 in urban settlements

- 15,010 in rural areas

Workshop: redistributing projected growth

Policy and regulatory implications

- Change to Councils’ Municipal Strategic Statements to explicitly protect rural

landscapes from development and direct dwelling demand to well serviced urban

settlements

- Regulation: Planning zone approach

• Restrict minimum lot sizes in Farm Zone

• Require minimum residential densities in urban zones:

eg. 20 dwellings per hectare in Residential 1 Zone in greenfield area

35 dwellings per hectare on infill sites

Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?

- 60,650 in urban settlements

- 15,010 in rural areas

Workshop: redistributing projected growth

Scenario description - Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties

- New dwellings in urban settlements

- Preference for growth along transport corridors

Scenario criteria - Ballarat, Bendigo, Gisborne, Bacchus Marsh, Maryborough

- Transport corridors

- Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated water,

sewerage

- Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements

Rationale for criteria - Protect rural landscape (agricultural land, native vegetation and animal species)

- Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards

- Potential to travel using methods other than car

- No growth in smaller settlements without basic infrastructure

- Protects existing streetscapes and housing stock

Policy and regulatory implications

- Municipal Strategic Statements

- Planning zones

Conclusion

Discussion of groups’ scenarios

Applicability of scenario modelling