• percentage of total variance over decade– associated with forced

component– associated with internal

variability

• pW and pn tend to be inverses of one another so p = pW + pn is more uniform than either

pW

pn

p

Potential predictability of temperature for 2010-20

(“next decade”)

Boer 2008

CMIP5 Experiment Design

“Long-Term”(century & longer)

TIER 1

TIER 2

CORE“realistic”

diagnostic

“Near-Term”(decadal)

(initialized ocean state)

prediction & predictability

CORE

TIER 1

Decadal forecast results to 2015

CCCma

U. Miami

© Crown copyright Met Office

We are exchanging very basic quantities:Global Annual Mean Temperature

One file for each year, each memberExchanged once per year around

NovemberEqual ownership

Example diagnostics:

© Crown copyright Met Office

Annual global temperature

(20)

(9)

(9)

(3)

© Crown copyright Met Office

Annual global temperature

© Crown copyright Met Office

Surface temperature: 2011relative to 1971-2000

© Crown copyright Met Office

Surface temperature: 2012

© Crown copyright Met Office

Surface temperature: 2013

© Crown copyright Met Office

Surface temperature: 2012-16

© Crown copyright Met Office

Surface temperature: 2015-19

© Crown copyright Met Office

We’ve had an overwhelmingly positive response:

GFDL – Tony Rosati Uni. Tokyo – Kimoto MasahideMRI – Masayoshi Ishii SMHI – Klaus Wyser,Colin Jones

KNMI – Wilco Hazeleger IC3 – Francisco Doblas-ReyesMPI – Daniela Matei RSMAS – Ben KirtmanCCCMA-EC – George Boer IfM-GEOMAR - Mojib LatifCERFACS – Laurent Terray UKMO-Hadley – Doug Smith

Are others planning to make regular decadal predictions? If so, would you like to take part?