PEAK Report Climate, Energy and Air qualitygoals...PEAK REPORT CLIMATE, ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY GOALS...

Transcript of PEAK Report Climate, Energy and Air qualitygoals...PEAK REPORT CLIMATE, ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY GOALS...

PEAK REPORTCLIMATE, ENERGY

AND AIR QUALITY GOALS

Department of Environmental Health

and the Mayor’s Office of Sustainability

September 12, 2016

Presenter

Presentation Notes

DEH has been active in air, climate and energy work dating back to 1990. But the 2020 goal setup has really allowed us to be more effective and efficient in how we collectively approach the three goals that we coordinate, as most strategies developed for one goal have co-benefits in the other goals With that in mind, our presentation today address all three goals under the umbrella of climate and our climate metrics, like carbon and GHG emissions with some time at the end to specifically address air and energy.

OUTLINE

• Climate change impacts

• Climate goals

• Comparison to peer cities

• Strategies to achieve the goals

• Buildings

• Transportation

• Energy goal

• Air Quality goal

Presenter

Presentation Notes

We will tee up this presentation by focusing on the climate impacts that Denver and most cities will face in the upcoming century.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE

Source: NOAA–Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

You have likely seen a graph such as this that shows the relationship between global atmoshpheric carbon and temperature. Throughout our planetary history, as carbon concentrations change, so has temperature. As carbon and other heat trapping gases increase, so does temperature. Howver, in the last 75 years, man made carbon emissions have rapidly increased atmohspheric concentrations to an unprecedented level. Past evidence as well as scientific models forecast an ever increasing global temperature as our carbon concentration continues to climb. The bad news is that carbon will stay in our atmosphere for decades, but the good news is that we can stop those emissions and keep the planet from continually warming throughout the rest of this century. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.

0.3 2

7

18

34

2 3 2 20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970-1999 2020-2039 2040-2059 2060-2079 2080-2099

Days >= 100o

Actual Current Emission Level Reduce Emission Level

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The years of 1970 to 1999 are fairly representative of the 20th and 19th century when Denver was being settled and developed. Denver rarely saw days over 100 degrees. While there were a few here and there, there would also be year after year where the thermometer never approached 100. Given global emissions, that will change in a very dramatic way. Again to point out some good news, it doesn’t have to be that way. Leading Cities like Denver, the world over, are making commitments and developing strategies to greatly reduce emissions. What cities do matters, as globally, cities by far emit the majority of heat trapping carbon emissions.

50% of Denver homes do not

have air conditioning

Heat related mortality likely

to double by 2050, with low-

income and vulnerable most

at risk

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Address impacts to public safety, emergeny response, and healthcare.

3RD WORST URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECTAFTER LAS VEGAS AND PHOENIX

Source: Climate Central, methodology controlled for elevation and climate of surrounding areas

HOTTER TEMPERATURES MEAN MORE AIR POLLUTION

Source: Climate Central

PROJECTED HEALTH IMPACT IN 2025 OF SMOG/OZONE

Source: Gasping for Breath report by Clean Air Task Force with CSU researchers

CLIMATE GOALS

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

mill

ion

MT-

CO

2eDenver’s GHG Emissions with Projection, Goals and 2050 Glide-path

Actual Projected Path to 2050 Goal

2050 Goal

2020 Goal

WHAT WILL AN 80% REDUCTION BY 2050 LOOK LIKE?

Electricity 100% Renewable

Buildings use 80% less natural gas

Transportation uses 80% less gas and diesel

DENVER’S 80% BY 2050 PROCESS

Stakeholders from industry, real estate, universities, nonprofits, Utilities, State Federal and Local policy experts

Interim Targets

Vetted Strategies for fully reaching

an 80% reduction

Denver’s Long Term Climate Plan for an 80% reduction of GHGs by

2050.Mid 2017

COMPARISON TO OTHER CITIES

HOW DOES DENVER COMPARE ON CLIMATE & ENERGY?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

#27 KansasCity, MO

#19 SaltLake City,

UT

#15 Atlanta,GA

#10 Denver,CO

#9 Austin,TX

#8 Portland,OR

#7Minneapolis,

MN

#5 Seattle,WA

#4 SanFrancisco,

CA

#1 Boston,MA

AC

EEE

City

Ene

rgy

Effic

ienc

y Sc

ore

American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Scorecard Comparison of Cities

Transportation

Utilities

Buildings

Community

Local Government

San Francisco

Denver

Boston

Minneapolis

San Francisco

Portland, OR

DenverMinneapolis

Portland, OR

San Francisco

Austin

Seattle

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% GHG Reduction Goals

COLORADANS CARE

• 73% of Coloradans say global warming is very or somewhat important to them personally

• 67% support significant steps to combat climate change

• 81% of Democrats support significant steps to address climate change now even if it would mean paying somewhat more for energy

• Majority of Coloradans agree local government officials should do more about global warming

• 86% support taking steps to become more energy efficient.

Sources: Yale Project on Climate Change CommunicationConservation Colorado Poll, December 2014, by Benenson Strategy Group

http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication-OFF/files/Climate-Change-in-the-Coloradan-Mind.pdf

SOURCES OF EMISSIONS &SECTOR SPECIFIC STRATEGIES

DENVER’S CORE EMISSIONS

Single Family Homes, 14%

Commercial and Multifamily Bldgs, 57%

Gasoline Vehicles,

23%

Diesel Vehicles, 6%

57%of total greenhouse gas emissions

ENERGIZE DENVER

The City convened a balanced, thoughtful

task force

Energy Performance?

Work

Live

Study

Eat

ENERGIZE DENVER TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATIONS

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Buildings Track and

Report Energy

Perf.Annually

Track and Report Energy

Perf.

20%Perform

or Improve

20% Perform

or Improve

PROJECTED EMISSIONS WITH ENERGIZE DENVER

10.8

11.3

11.8

12.3

12.8

mill

ion

MT-

CO

2e

Actual Projected

Projection with Energize Denver Parts 1&2 Projection with Energize Denver Part 1

2020 Goal: 11.8 MMTons

29%Core Carbon Emissions

#1 Air Pollution

TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS

MODE SWITCHING FUEL SWITCHINGCarpool Electricity

Bike Natural Gas

Transit Biofuels

Walk Hydrogen

Reduction Strategies

BENEFITS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Air Pollution

Carbon Dioxide

Energy

Electricity vs. Gasoline - 2020

Gas EV

1. Grants and Incentives

2. Charging AccessGrant: charging analysis

3. Building code update

4. Smart City Challenge

#5EV FRIENDLY CITY

6,924 6,999 7,415 9,484 10,771

18,50024,087

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000

CUMULATIVE EV SALES

WHAT ARE WE DOING?

GETTING THERE

9942,717 3,747

5,843 7,50010,000

12,50015,000

17,500

9942,717 3,747

5,843 7,500

14,000

22,000

30,000

40,000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Colorado EV Market Adoption ProjectionsCurrent Projection 2020 Projection

Smart City Goal

Strategy 2020 GHG Reduction (mtCO2)

2x PEV growth Awareness, Infrastructure

56,000

PEV Taxis/TNCs Infrastructure, subsidy,marketing

5,600

Grid Decarbonization

Advocacy, legislation

113,000

TOTAL = 175,000 mtCO2

PROJECTED EMISSIONS WITH BOTH ENERGIZE DENVER AND SMART CITY

10.8

11.3

11.8

12.3

12.8

13.3

mill

ion

MT-

CO

2e

Actual Projected Projection with Energize Denver Parts 1&2 Smart City EVs

2020 Goal: 11.8 MMTons

AIR QUALITY

2020 AIR QUALITY GOAL:ATTAIN ALL NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS

(NAAQS)

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)

Carbon Monoxide (CO)

Lead (Pb)

Coarse Particulate Matter (PM10)

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5)

Ozone (O3)

• Health based standard

• Used to be out of attainment for 5 out of 6

• We are not out of the woods

• Standards change over time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

CAMP La Casa Chatfield NREL

Ozo

ne L

evel

(pp

b)Ozone Compliance (3-yr avg 4th max)

201420152016

75 (old)

70 (new)

WHAT ARE WE DOING?

Monitoring Modeling Regulatory

ENERGY GOAL

88,00089,00090,00091,00092,00093,00094,00095,00096,000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Thou

sand

s MM

BTU

2020 Energy GoalMaintain 2012 Energy Consumption

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mm

BTU

Energy Goal = 50% reduction in fossil fuels, hold consumption to 2012 Levels

Fossil Fuel Target (mmBTU) Fossil Energy Business as Usual Forecast (mmBTU)

THANK YOU!

PEAK Report Climate, Energy and Air qualitygoals...PEAK REPORT CLIMATE, ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY GOALS...

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