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OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
DECEMBER 8, 2016
Thomas Bailey Community College Research Center
Teachers College, Columbia University
Open enrollments Opportunities and difficulties of community
colleges and open-admission institutions
Thomas Bailey
Director Community College Research Center
Teachers College, Columbia University
Opening Higher Education, Session 4: Widening access to higher education
December 8, 2016
@CommunityCCRC
#RedesigningCCs
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
(i) What are the opportunities and challenges of
community colleges and open-admission institutions?
(ii) What is the value of sub-degrees for the labour market?
(iii) What could be the value of starting a degree without
completion?
(iv) What is the role of technology to widen access and
does it work?
Questions?
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
(i) Opportunities
(i) Value of sub-degrees for the labour market?
(ii) What could be the value of starting a degree without
completion?
(ii) Challenges
(iii) What is the role of technology to widen access and
does it work?
Outline
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Opportunities
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Community College Basics
• Types of programs
– “Terminal” occupational degrees
– Transfer to bachelors degrees
– Short term skill building
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Average Published Tuition and Fees (Enrollment-
Weighted) for Full-Time Undergraduates by Sector,
2015-16
$3,435
$9,410
$32,405
$15,610
Public 2-year (In-State)
Public 4-year (In-State)
Private non-Profit
Private for-Profit
Source: CollegeBoard, “Trends in College Pricing”, Table 1A
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Almost half of all undergraduates are
enrolled at community colleges
CCRC Summary of Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 12-month unduplicated headcount: 2013-14
45%
55% Undergraduates
NOT at community
colleges Undergraduates
at community
colleges
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
More than one-third of community
college students are age 25 or above Community Colleges Public 4-year
CCRC Summary of Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall Enrollment: Fall 2014
19 or Under,
32%
20-24, 32%
25-29, 13%
30 or Older, 24%
19 or Under,
33%
20-24, 50%
25-29, 8%
30 or Older,
9%
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
37% 33% 24% 24%
18%
22% 21%
16% 15% 15%
15% 16%
13% 14% 16%
16% 18%
21% 21% 21%
9% 11%
25% 26% 30%
Community Colleges Public Baccalaureate Private Baccalaureate Public Research &Doctoral
Private Research &Doctoral
Bottom SES Fourth SES Quintlie Third SES Quintlie Second SES Quintile Top SES Quintile
Socioeconomic distribution at colleges by
institutional type, 2011-12
CCRC Analysis using National Postsecondary Student Aid Study: 2012 Undergraduates (PowerStats); Income Quintile is based on 2012
household income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/ (Table H-
1). Both dependent and independent students are combined.
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Pre-college work
In-college work
Post-college work
High school College More
college
Student Progress is Complex
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Median Earnings and Tax Payments of Full-Time Year-
Round Workers Ages 25 and Older, by Education
Level, 2011
SOURCES: Baum, Ma, and Payne (2013) Education Pays, 2013, College Board. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2012, Table
PINC-03; Internal Revenue Service, 2010; Davis et al., 2013; calculations by the authors.
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and
Education Level, 2012
SOURCES :Baum, Ma, and Payne (2013) Education Pays, 2013, College Board. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau,
2012b; calculations by the authors.
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
$1,800
$1,040
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000
KY
MI
NC
Mean
VA
WA
AR
KY
MI
NC
Mean
VA
WA
AR
Quarterly Earnings Gains: AA over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC (Fixed
Effects)
Male
Female
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
$1,800
$1,040
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000
KYMI
NCMean F
VAWAAR
KYMI
NCMean M
VAWAAR
Quarterly Earnings Gains: AA over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC (Fixed
Effects)
Male
Female
PV gain for AA
(30 years d=3%)
Male $75,000
Female $135,000
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
570
250
-300 600 1500
WAMI
MeanVAKYNCAR
MINCKY
MeanWAVAAR
Quarterly Earnings Gains: Certificate over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC
(Fixed Effects)
Gains are: modest,
temporary, non-robust
(except in health).
But certificates vary
substantially in credits.
Male
Female
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
NLSY97 college sample:
Model coefficients
relative to no award
Annual Earnings 2011-13 Average
(2013 dollars)
Male Female
[M1] Any Certificate −2,101
[2894]
−1,316
[1526]
[M2] Stacked award 3,220
[4371]
5,268**
[2505]
[M3] Cert+AA (prog./suppl.) −4,690
[6646]
7,939*
[3858]
Cert+BA (prog./suppl.) 940
[3853]
3,146
[3235]
Cert+Cert (independent) 8,058
[7848]
−1,146
[4993]
[M4] Stacked award incl. vocational 6,334**
[1781]
2,753**
[1186]
Observations 1,658 1,857
NLSY97 postsecondary transcript file, transcript/panel weights 2013. Controls for region, ASVAB, race, maternal ed., family income,
exp., other postsecondary awards. Robust standard errors in brackets.
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
• Value of an Associates Degree Compared to High School Degree
– Average 13% for Males
– Average 20% for Females
– But differs by field (Associate of Arts or General Studies mainly
valuable for transfer)
• Benefits to Society Exceed Costs
– Economic Growth
– Health
– Welfare Receipt
– Reduced Crime
A good investment for students and society
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Challenges
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Source: CCRC
Dev Ed Sorting System
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
• 80 percent of CC students want a bachelors degree
• Only one-third of all students transfer
• About 40 percent of those earn a bachelors degree
• 14% of degree seeking students starting at a CC earn a 4-
year college degree within 6 years
Student Pathways: Transfers
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Slightly more than one third of community
college students earn a degree in 6 years
36%
20%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Earned a degree at any institution Still enrolled at an institution Not enrolled
Shapiro et al. (2014). Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
-$400
$400
$1,200
$2,000
$2,800
1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+
Quarterly Earnings Gain over Zero Credits for Non-Completers
(8 Years After FTIC in VA/NC)
Average
Credits Earned
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Per-pupil total operating and education & related
expenditures (i.e., excluding sponsored research &
auxiliary enterprise), AY 2011
Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2011). Trends in College Spending 2001–2011 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure
S2, 19–21.
$67,359
$37,408
$21,130 $19,377
$12,918
$35,059
$21,677
$16,009 $13,081
$9,550
Private ResearchSector
Private Bachelor'sSector
Public ResearchSector
Public Bachelor'sSector
Public CommunityCollege Sector
Total Operating Education & Related
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Changes in total operating spending per student
over time, AY 2001–2011
Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2011). Trends in College Spending 2001–2011 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure
S2, 19–21. Data Shown in 2011 Dollars.
$11,538
$2,780
$(118) $(322) $(904)
$9,304
$991 $349
($1,097) ($1,427)
Private ResearchSector
Public ResearchSector
Private Bachelor'sSector
Public Bachelor'sSector
Public CommunityCollege Sector
Total Operating Education & Related
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Technology
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
• Information to students and staff
• Tracking progress
• Instruction
Uses of Technology
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Penn’s Coursera Offerings (U.S. Respondents)
Level of Education
Have College Degree
MOOC enrollees
Have College Degree
U.S. population
Christensen et al., November 2013, “Who takes MOOCs and why?” Penn State Working Paper
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Raw withdrawal rates: CC math & English
25%
19%
12% 10%
Math withdrawal Rate English withdrawal Rate
Online
Face-to-face
18% 20%
10% 12%
Math Withdrawal Rate English Withdrawal Rate
Virginia Washington
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Raw Course Withdrawal & Grade: Ethnicity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
F2F Online
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
F2F Online
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Other
% Withdrawal Grade (Among Completers)
(C)
(B)
(A)
OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
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Community College Research Center
Teachers College, Columbia University
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E-mail: ccrc@columbia.edu Telephone: 212.678.3091
For more information
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#RedesigningCCs