Post on 20-Sep-2020
27th May 2020
By: Ms. Daorung Tirawongkusol
PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited
Petroleum Market Outlook
2© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM
CRUDE OIL MARKET OUTLOOK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
DTD Brent
Dubai
OPEC+ Special meeting
on 9th April
OPEC+
Break up
Start Oil
Price War
End of OPEC+ compliance, production
boost upHit tank top storage
Aramco drone
attacked
Positive sign of U.S.-China
deal
OPEC+
Deal cut
from May
China COVID
situation start
Saudi
deeper cut
in Jun
Key Highlights: 2Q/2020
• Easing lockdowns throughout Asia, Europe, N.America
• China’s demand recovers buying massive crude oilDemand
Supply
Others
• Major oil countries are following commitments to cut crude supplies
• U.S.-China trade war
• Stimulus packages
Crude Prices Movement
3© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM
1 COVID-19 Outbreak to Impact Oil Demand
Global tracking COVID-19 casesA Global COVID-19 cases added per dayB
Crude oil demand after COVID-19C
Source: Bloomberg (26 May 2020)
Change of crude oil demand after COVID-19D
Source : Rystad Energy(May’20)
Source: Bloomberg (26 May 2020)
Source: Rystad Energy(May’20)
(%)MBD
-8-22.8
-8.3 -3.810.7
-15.9
-67.5
-34.8
-14.7
41.5
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 4Q2020 2021
Road Aviation Other
47.4 42.9 36.6 43.9 45.7 46.8
7.25.9
2.44.9 6.1 6.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2019 1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 4Q2020 2021
Road Aviation Other
4© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM
Expectation of OPEC+ to Extend Production Cut Deal2
OPEC+ cut as commitmentA Saudi & Russia cutting dramatically, leading OPEC+ by exampleB
40% of the 4.5 MMBD announced reductions outside US & CanadaC
Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)
Crude oil will be balance in 2021D
Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)
Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)
Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)
5© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM
U.S. Oil Output Growth to Slow3
Rig counts decline due to economic concernA U.S. production drops due to economic concernB
Massive decline of Canada, U.S. productionC
Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)
Less built of U.S. crude inventoriesD
Source: EIA (May 2020)
Source: EIA (May 2020)
Source: EIA (May 2020)
13.1
11.6
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20
MBD
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20
MB
6© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM
4 Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance
Oil demand destruction wrought by the COVID-19A Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance (IEA)B
Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance (EIA)C
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC (May 2020)
Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance (OPEC)D
Source : EIA, GC’s forecast (May’20)
0.8
-0.1
-9.3
-8.6
1
0.4
-5.3
-8.1
1.0
0.1
-6.8
-9.1
Feb 2020 Forecast
Mar 2020 Forecast
Apr 2020 Forecast
May 2020 Forecast
IEA EIA OPEC
6.67.9
-4.2-5.8
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
Surplus(RHS) Demand Supply
Source: IEA, GC’s forecast (May 2020)
6.7
11.5
-3-4.6
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
Surplus(RHS) Demand Supply
Source: OPEC, GC’s forecast (May 2020)
7.3
4.2
-2.9
-6.2
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20
Surplus(RHS) Demand Supply
MBD
MBDMBD
7© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM
OIL MARKET OUTLOOK – 2020
Softer Oil Demand Growth on COVID-19 Outbreak
Deepen Oil Output Cut from all major oil producers
Effects from Chinese Stimulus Policies
Factors to Watch
2020
Crude Oil Prices (2019)
Crude Oil Prices (2020)
Thank You