27th May 2020

By: Ms. Daorung Tirawongkusol

PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited

Petroleum Market Outlook

2© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM

CRUDE OIL MARKET OUTLOOK

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

DTD Brent

Dubai

OPEC+ Special meeting

on 9th April

OPEC+

Break up

Start Oil

Price War

End of OPEC+ compliance, production

boost upHit tank top storage

Aramco drone

attacked

Positive sign of U.S.-China

deal

OPEC+

Deal cut

from May

China COVID

situation start

Saudi

deeper cut

in Jun

Key Highlights: 2Q/2020

• Easing lockdowns throughout Asia, Europe, N.America

• China’s demand recovers buying massive crude oilDemand

Supply

Others

• Major oil countries are following commitments to cut crude supplies

• U.S.-China trade war

• Stimulus packages

Crude Prices Movement

3© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM

1 COVID-19 Outbreak to Impact Oil Demand

Global tracking COVID-19 casesA Global COVID-19 cases added per dayB

Crude oil demand after COVID-19C

Source: Bloomberg (26 May 2020)

Change of crude oil demand after COVID-19D

Source : Rystad Energy(May’20)

Source: Bloomberg (26 May 2020)

Source: Rystad Energy(May’20)

(%)MBD

-8-22.8

-8.3 -3.810.7

-15.9

-67.5

-34.8

-14.7

41.5

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 4Q2020 2021

Road Aviation Other

47.4 42.9 36.6 43.9 45.7 46.8

7.25.9

2.44.9 6.1 6.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2019 1Q2020 2Q2020 3Q2020 4Q2020 2021

Road Aviation Other

4© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM

Expectation of OPEC+ to Extend Production Cut Deal2

OPEC+ cut as commitmentA Saudi & Russia cutting dramatically, leading OPEC+ by exampleB

40% of the 4.5 MMBD announced reductions outside US & CanadaC

Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)

Crude oil will be balance in 2021D

Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)

Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)

Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)

5© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM

U.S. Oil Output Growth to Slow3

Rig counts decline due to economic concernA U.S. production drops due to economic concernB

Massive decline of Canada, U.S. productionC

Source: S&P Global Platts (May 2020)

Less built of U.S. crude inventoriesD

Source: EIA (May 2020)

Source: EIA (May 2020)

Source: EIA (May 2020)

13.1

11.6

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20

MBD

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20

MB

6© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM

4 Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance

Oil demand destruction wrought by the COVID-19A Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance (IEA)B

Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance (EIA)C

Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC (May 2020)

Global Oil Demand/Supply Balance (OPEC)D

Source : EIA, GC’s forecast (May’20)

0.8

-0.1

-9.3

-8.6

1

0.4

-5.3

-8.1

1.0

0.1

-6.8

-9.1

Feb 2020 Forecast

Mar 2020 Forecast

Apr 2020 Forecast

May 2020 Forecast

IEA EIA OPEC

6.67.9

-4.2-5.8

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Surplus(RHS) Demand Supply

Source: IEA, GC’s forecast (May 2020)

6.7

11.5

-3-4.6

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Surplus(RHS) Demand Supply

Source: OPEC, GC’s forecast (May 2020)

7.3

4.2

-2.9

-6.2

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Surplus(RHS) Demand Supply

MBD

MBDMBD

7© Copyright 2020 PTT Group PRISM

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK – 2020

Softer Oil Demand Growth on COVID-19 Outbreak

Deepen Oil Output Cut from all major oil producers

Effects from Chinese Stimulus Policies

Factors to Watch

2020

Crude Oil Prices (2019)

Crude Oil Prices (2020)

Thank You