Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

March 3, 2011March 3, 2011Springfield, MissouriSpringfield, Missouri

Bill ElderBill Elder

Ozarks Chapter of AGA 2011 Membership Professional

Development Seminar

“Understanding and Utilizing Data”

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

• Data Data

• Information Information

• Knowledge Knowledge

• Wisdom Wisdom

“The construction of knowledge involves more the orderly loss of information than it’s meaningless accumulation.”

-- Kenneth Boulding

Http://WWW.OSEDA.MISSOURI.EDU

OSEDA…

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Aligning indicators to questions

To know you have asked the “right” questions and produced “useful” answers….focus on decision makers and decision-making. Michael Quinn Patton

Discussion … “New Media…”

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Aligning indicators to questions

To know you have asked the “right” questions and produced “useful” answers….focus on decision makers and decision-making. Michael Quinn Patton

Discussion … “New Media…”

“..No one of us is as good as all of us…”

Dave Steckel

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Many Types of Models or Plans

• Formative– “Improve”– Periodic and timely– Focus on program

activities and outputs– Leads to early

recommendations for program improvement

• Summative– “Prove”– Were resources

committed worthwhile– Focus on outcomes

and impact– Measures value of

program based on impact

* Kellogg logic model development guide

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

New Census information …

World: 6,892,893,953

U.S.: 311,874,651 (9.7%)

Missouri: 5,988,927 (7.0%)

2010 Population Count & Percent Change from 2000

Check out new Censustools at census.gov and OSEDA and….Elsewhere…

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

New Census information …

Complete Count DataAmerican Community Survey (ACS)

“Period Estimates by Size”

Just Google “Census” or “OSEDA” for More information

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

About to Lose the Missouri Ninth…

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Rapid growth and large states

Five states account for 17% of U.S. Growth

Six states account for 54% of U.S. Growth not just fast but .. Big

37 M

25 M

18.8 M

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Diverse Trends: Regions within Regions

More Regions of growth near regions of decline

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Speaking English Less than “Very Well”

In 2009, the ACS estimated that over 24.5 million persons in the U.S. speak English less than “very well” -- 8.6% of U.S. population over 5 years old.

The corresponding number in Missouri was 118,793 or 2.1%.

The Missouri five year ACS period estimates reflect a distribution of this population among service centers and certain agricultural industries.

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Male FemaleMale Female

Population Pyramids of MissouriPercent of Total Population2000 2020

New Pyramids in March

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Quality of Life

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Percent Population Over 65

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Aging in Place in the North Percent 85+

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Quality of Life --- Children

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Married-Couple Families

In 2009, married-couple families comprised less than 50% of Missouri households. (Missouri, US Census, 2009 American Community Survey)

County Estimates from 5-Year ACS Data.

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Married Couple Families with Children

Missouri married couple families with children declined to 19.4% of households in 2009 -- nearly 29,000 fewer than in 2006 (ACS, 2009)

County Estimates from 5-Year ACS Data.

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Commuting…..Percent of Working Outside County of Residence, 2005-2009 ACS

County Estimates from 5-Year ACS Data.

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Household Income

Missouri median household income increase by 5.3% between 2006 and 2009 from $42,841 to $45,229.

Meanwhile, U.S. Median household income rose 3.5% from $48,451 to $50,221.

Not surprisingly, the five year ACS period estimates show higher incomes associated with urban areas and major transportation routes.

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Sample ACS Information

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Challenging Times….

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Challenging Times ... Regional Differences

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

High School Completers

The 2009 ACS reported that 1.3 million Missourians 25 and older had a high school education (32.0%).

The corresponding U.S. number is 57.6 million (28.5%).

The ACS five year estimates show relativelylower rates of high school completion in south central Missouri and the “Bootheel.”Regions also associated lower incomelevels and higher poverty rates.

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Bachelor’s Degrees

The 2009 ACS reported that nearly a million Missourians 25 and older had completed a bachelor’s degree (25.2%). That is up from 17.8% in 1990 and 21.6% in 2000.

The corresponding U.S. number of persons with a bachelor’s degree in 2009 was 53.3 million (27.9%).

Five-Year period ACS Estimates Shows Missourians with higher education are centered in regional trade and service centers

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

From the “Employer” Report:Returns to Associate Degrees

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

From the “Employer” Report:Returns to Bachelor Degrees

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Using Data Well

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

Indicators of Progress

Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisOffice of Social and Economic Data Analysis

March 3, 2011March 3, 2011Springfield, MissouriSpringfield, Missouri

Bill ElderBill Elder

Ozarks Chapter of AGA 2011 Membership Professional

Development Seminar

“Understanding and Utilizing Data”