NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

STUDIES OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

A. DIFFERENT PROSPECTIVE STUDIESa) 2005b) 2006

B. KNOWLEDGE SOFTWARE(PREP MODEL)

C. CREATIVE STRATEGIC BUSINESS MODEL SOFTWARE

(ALADIN MODEL)

D. TRAINING SESSIONSa) Creativity stimulationb) Prospective approachesc) Innovation management

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Strategic studies of the fragrance industry a) 2005 - 2013 (first version 126 pages)a) 2005 - 2013 (first version 126 pages)

b) 2006 - 2013 (second version 137 pages)b) 2006 - 2013 (second version 137 pages)

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

2005 PROSPECTIVE STUDY

Firstversion

2005-2013

100 variables

7 macro trends

3scenarios

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Geographicalzones

SouthAmerica

Middle EastAustralia

SouthPacific

Europe

Asia

North America

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Experts

Creators

Distributors

MediaRegulation

Packaging

Brands

FragranceManufacturers

Economics

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

2006 PROSPECTIVE STUDY

Secondversion

2006-2013

217 variables

58 macro trends

5scenarios

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Functionalvariables

(128)

Manufacturing(21)

Economic and Finance

(10)

Environmental/regulation

(18)

Human(9)

Strategic(26)

Marketing(21)

R&D andInnovation

(23)

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Geographicalzones

SouthAmerica

Brazil

Middle EastDubai, Saudi ArabiaAustralia

SouthPacific

French Polynesia,Hawaii

EuropeFrance, Germany

United Kingdom, Italy, Spain

Baltic countries

AsiaJapan, China, India

North America

Usa, Canada

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Experts

CreatorsTrends: 7+5

DistributorsTrends: 7+7

MediaTrends: 7+5

RegulationTrends: 7+6

PackagingTrends: 7+7

BrandsTrends: 7+7

FragranceManufacturers

Trends: 7+7

EconomicsTrends: 7+7

General trends: 7

Specific trends: 51

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Scenarios

Optimistic“Inane”

Pessimisticreasonable

Pessimistic“Cassandra”

Reference

Optimistic reasonable

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

B) PREP MODEL

51 SPECIFIC TRENDS

AUTOMATIC ANALYSIS OF QUESTIONNAIRES SCENARIOS

CONSEQUENCES

SEVEN GENERIC TRENDS

EIGHT TYPES OF EXPERTS

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

C) CREATIVE STRATEGIC BUSINESS MODEL(ALADIN MODEL)

STREGHTS AND WEAKNESSES

POSITIONNING

VALUE PROPOSITION

BUSINESS MODEL

TREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES

GE

NE

RA

TE

IN

NO

VA

TIO

N MA

ST

ER

CO

MP

LE

XIT

YKEY SUCCESS FACTORS

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Is the prospective study a good study?Is the prospective study a good study?Has these study a good methodology?Has these study a good methodology?

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

First versionPROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

2005-2013

1. EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS PROPOSED

2. EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS CONFIRMED

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

First versionPROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

2005-20131.Examples of some results proposed

(Public presentation of some short term trends at Luxe PACK MonacoNovember 2, 2005)

A. Importance of regulation B. Consolidation in packaging

C. M&A (Merger and acquisition) in distribution

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

First versionPROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

2005-20132.Examples of some results confirmed

(two years latter…)

A. Law about allergens voted

B. Consolidation in packagingglass makers: Saint Gobain Desjonquères ???,

(Fond Sagard et Cognétas 29/03/07)

paper: failure

C. M&A (Merger and acquisition) in distributionMarionnaud/ Watson

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Second versionPROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

2006-2013

1. EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS PROPOSED

2. EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS CONFIRMED

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Second versionPROSPECTIVE STUDY OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

2006-20131. Examples of some results proposed

(in the report December 20, 2006, delivered to different clients)

A. Different trends confirmed by experts

B. Fusion and acquisition in Fragrances houses

C. Specific role of some types of innovation

D. New business models

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Second versionPROSPECTIVE STUDY OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

2006-2013Example of some results confirmed

(six month latter)

A. Different trends confirmed alreadySome trends integrated in the strategy

B. Fusion and acquisition in Fragrances housesGivaudan/ Quest

Robertet/Charabot (31.05.07)

C. Role of innovation confirmedby some companies results

D. New business integratedin strategies

NVD CONSULTANTSStrategic studies of the fragrance industry

Second versionPROSPECTIVE STUDY OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY

2006-2013Flexibility of use of the study for your company

A. Variables data base B. Links between variables“configurations” data base

C. Experts advice data base D. Consequences data base

Your questions???

E. Possibility to personalizethe recommendations