Post on 01-Jul-2015
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
NREL PV Jobs/Labor Intensity Project
New Ideas in Educating a Workforce in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Albany, NY
Barry Friedman
November 19, 2009
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Presentation Overview
About the solar PV value chain
Recent renewable energy jobs studies
NREL’s JEDI Model
Ongoing NREL study
Key issues for U.S. job estimation
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Direct, Indirect, and Induced Economic Flow
Solar PV jobs Solar PV sales
Direct Economic Impacts
Consumer goods and services Sales and jobs from household spending on food, housing, clothing, health, education,
transportation, use of government services, etc.
Indirect Economic Impacts Induced Economic Impacts
Solar PV suppliers and services jobs
Solar PV suppliers and services sales
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Research and Development
Indirect Jobs Jobs created in the production of inputs into the PV industry on intermediate levels of production
Examples • Commodity and materials suppliers • Architects, planners, and builders • Process manufacturers, e.g. lasers for wafer manufacture • Financers and Investors • Media and publishers
Direct Jobs Jobs created directly by production, installation, and maintenance of PV
Examples • System developers and integrators • Installers • Manufacturing (e.g. silicon and wafers, cells, modules, inverters) • Research and development • Trainers and educators
Examples of Direct, Indirect, and Induced Jobs Created by Solar
Induced Jobs Jobs associated with spending on food, housing, clothing, health, education,
transportation, use of government services, etc.
Examples: Retailers, restaurants, insurance companies
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Presentation Overview
About the solar value chain
Key renewable energy jobs studies
NREL’s JEDI Model
Ongoing NREL study
Key issues for U.S. job estimation
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
New Energy Finance, for 2008 and 2025 Global
Sector 2008 Jobs per MW 2025 Jobs per MW
Opera&on 0.6 0.6
PV project construc&on 5.0 2.9
Roo8op installa&on 20.0 8.8
Silicon and wafers 3.5 1.3
Cell manufacture 5.0 1.9
Module manufacture 6.0 2.2
Inverters 1.3 0.8
Research 0.4 0.15
Development and services 0.2 0.4
TOTAL 42 19
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Source: New Energy Finance, 2009
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
FTE jobs in PV (2008 and 2025)
Global Job Estimates - New Energy Finance NEF estimates based on 14.7 GW in 2008 and 340 GW in 2025, across
solar technologies.
PEW estimates U.S. solar job growth at 19.1% from 1998-07.
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Research and Development
Navigant, for 2005 and 2010 U.S.
Source: Navigant Consulting, 2008 8
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Presentation Overview
About the solar value chain
Recent renewable energy jobs studies
NREL’s JEDI Model
Ongoing NREL study
Key issues for U.S. job estimation
9
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (JEDI) Inputs Analyzes project-level job and
economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation at the local and state level
Inputs include - Project location - Year of construction or installation - System type (residential new
construction, residential retrofit, small commercial, large commercial, utility)
- Average system size, number of systems installed
- Base installed system cost, annual direct O&M cost
Option to use default project cost data
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Output of the JEDI Model
JEDI calculates jobs, earnings, and economic activity
Construction – Project development and onsite
labor impacts – Module and supply chain
impacts – Induced impacts
Operation – Onsite labor impacts (PV project
labor only) – Local revenue and supply chain
impacts – Induced impacts.
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Possible Next Steps For PV JEDI Development
Provide Scale-up Capability – Improve usability for policy makers – State and federal solar carve-out RPS scenarios - Gross and net job analysis by state
Improve Cost Estimation - Regular (or automatic) materials cost database updates, or allowance for
cost trending from base year data - Addition of a database of manufacturing, land, and labor availabilities by
state - Improved property & sales tax calculations - Improvements to resource estimation and system design specifications
Other - Allow for choice of thin-film, mono- or poly-crystalline technologies - Add cost of land for centralized PV installations - Add option for single or dual-axis tracking on large scale PV projects
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Presentation Overview
About the solar value chain
Recent renewable energy jobs studies
NREL’s JEDI Model
Ongoing NREL study
Key issues for U.S. job estimation
13
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Goals of the Study
For the 2009-2030 timeframe:
Identify and assess qualitative factors that contribute to the changing productivity (labor intensity) in U.S. solar PV
E.g. new distributed models, economies of scale, industry consolidation
Utilize historical intensity gains to assess future
Provide up-to-date national estimates of U.S. job creation on a per-MW basis, across the PV value chain
Compare findings to other studies, SEIA survey findings, and PV JEDI Model
Follow-on analysis will replicate for CSP and SHC
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
1. Operation
2. PV project construction
3. Rooftop installation
4. Silicon and wafers
5. Cell manufacture
6. Module manufacture
7. Inverters
8. Research
9. Development and services
Value Chain Segments Covered by Study (NEF Model)
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Who We’re Interviewing for the Study
Direct sectors of Solar PV Industry - Installers - Manufacturers - Vertically integrated organizations
- Distributors
Large and small enterprises - Broad range of industry participant size and scope of operations
National coverage to capture localized economic and labor variations Variations in state laws and regulations that influence labor productivity.
- State specific incentive and certification laws impacting installers
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Presentation Overview
About the solar value chain
Recent renewable energy jobs studies
NREL’s JEDI Model
Ongoing NREL study
Key issues for U.S. job estimation
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Key Job Estimation Issues Gross vs. net employment: Displacement of
conventional energy source employment Need for support infrastructure growth and employment
SolarGrid model CREZ model
Scale-up Scenarios and assumptions U.S. Strategic position vis-à-vis China on PV-related
manufacturing (more in a moment) Difficult to capture domestic job creation from
multinational business operations. Effects of mechanization, robotics, other process
improvements How are ancillary services affected?
Lawyers, financiers, project developers, etc.
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Scale-up Scenarios: Capacity Projections for PV Growth by 2030
Note: The Clean Edge projection is for 2025.
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13 12 28
65
300
170
200
251
210
120
200
240
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Cum
ulat
ive
PV C
apac
ity (G
W)
2030 PV Projections
28
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
U.S. Competitive Position China and Europe each have 27% PV market share of 6.9 MW
global PV production. China fastest growth rates. U.S. ceded its position and is now at 6%. (.41 GW from .27 GW in 2007).
1999 – 40% cell market share 2009 – 5% cell market share (SEIA) Previous history of PV tech transfer to Japan U.S. is an exporter and importer of both PV modules and thin film technologies
Stabenow Senate bill – “Solar Manufacturing Jobs Creation Act” Cost/benefit to U.S. economy/macroeconomic factors:
Carbon price unclear, transportation costs, tariffs, Weighed against expensive labor, capital, materials, and land/buildings Installation job multipliers compared with manufacturing supply chain; Scale-up scenarios could mean it’s not an either/or for U.S./China manufacturing Uncertain effects of the “Buy American” provision of ARRA
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
WD Needs Identified by IREC and DOE
– Lack of trained installers, designers, sales people, inspectors, codes experts
– Inconsistent/incomplete professional training/certification/licensing standards
• Training does not differentiate among the types of jobs that are emerging
• Lack of clearly targeted solar occupational areas, titles, tasks and skill sets
• Lack of clearly defined career paths • Lack of instructors with a combination of content expertise, practical
and teaching experience • Lack of training programs that provide sufficient on-the-job
experience and hands-on laboratories • Training does not sufficiently cross disciplines • Lessons learned from other tech industries
– Status quo educational system does not prioritize solar training
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Questions?
Barry Friedman Senior Energy Analyst National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Strategic Energy Analysis Center 1617 Cole Boulevard, MS 302 Golden, CO 80401 barry.friedman@nrel.gov
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