Net Energy Next EnergyChina Renewable Energy

Trade Mission 2006by Ron Swenson

www.SolarQuest.com/Workshops/China

Global Warming over the Past Millennium

Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.

Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)

…but what’s coming up?

Oil is going to decline …

Swenson Curve To avoid

deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.

www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

120

100

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0 0 10 20 30 40

Time

Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment

begin investment before decline

Net Energy Production

Begin investment during decline

www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Thermodynamics of Coal

Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil

EROI = 927 ~ electric quality

1 BOE

Thermodynamics of Oil

It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?

Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination

EROI = 10±

EROI = 4 12 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Nuclear

Plus …

• Depletion

• Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process

• Waste guard for 10,000+ years

… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?

Thermodynamics of Tar Sands

Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses

natural gas

EROI = 2 or 3

Is it worth the trouble?!

Thermodynamics of Hydrogen

Am I missing something?!

EROI = -½

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Consequences of Making the Wrong Choice

Moving fast with good solutions

Net Energy Production

Making the wrong choices

www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

Thomas Edison “I'd put my

money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROI = 1030 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV

• EROI: 6 months

• Life: 20 years

EROI = 40120 ~electric

Next Energywww.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

Since oil is big in the transportation sector…

… a short history lesson.

How did transportation transform? • from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to• liquid fuels (oil)

And where do we go from here?

Lest we forget …They did bring coal to Newcastle.

...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

No joke!

The original buggy whip protest

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

Back to solid fuels?

The All-New DonCar!

www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…

Touch?

… and it is ephemeral, like solar power.

See?

A match made in heaven.

Lift?

The Electric Rail

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

www.ecotopia.com/ST

Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place…

www.ecotopia.com/ST

• EROI of biofuels too low for urban transport…

(not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)

• Fuels will remain essential for:

• Airplanes

• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs)

• Agriculture

•But Solar Is the Key to our Transportation Future!

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.

Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.

Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)

0

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OilCoa

lGas

Fission

Biomas

s

Hydro

electr

ic

Solar,

wind, g

eoth

ermal

0.5%

Source: BP & IEA

2004

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OilCoa

lGas

Fusio

n / F

issio

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Hydro

electr

ic

Solar,

wind

, geo

therm

al

2050

14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day

30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day

The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables]

www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

PV: The Growth Industry

OilOil

PVPV

Oil declines at 4%/yr

PV increases at 50%/yr

The conclusions are simple:

• We are not doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital

resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.

• Then we must act quickly with resolve.

Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?

Colin Campbell

“Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.”

1996

www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

Yes!

“Think TeraWatts”

www.solarquest.com/Workshops/China

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.

Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.