Net Energy Next Energy China Renewable Energy Trade Mission 2006 by Ron Swenson .
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Transcript of Net Energy Next Energy China Renewable Energy Trade Mission 2006 by Ron Swenson .
Net Energy Next EnergyChina Renewable Energy
Trade Mission 2006by Ron Swenson
www.SolarQuest.com/Workshops/China
Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.
Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)
…but what’s coming up?
Oil is going to decline …
Swenson Curve To avoid
deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.
www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 0 10 20 30 40
Time
Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment
begin investment before decline
Net Energy Production
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)
178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
Thermodynamics of Coal
Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil
EROI = 927 ~ electric quality
1 BOE
Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?
Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination
EROI = 10±
EROI = 4 12 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Nuclear
Plus …
• Depletion
• Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process
• Waste guard for 10,000+ years
… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?
Thermodynamics of Tar Sands
Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses
natural gas
EROI = 2 or 3
Is it worth the trouble?!
Thermodynamics of Hydrogen
Am I missing something?!
EROI = -½
120
100
80
60
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0 0 10 20 30 40
Time
Consequences of Making the Wrong Choice
Moving fast with good solutions
Net Energy Production
Making the wrong choices
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Thomas Edison “I'd put my
money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com
Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be bootstrapped
EROI = 1030 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV
• EROI: 6 months
• Life: 20 years
EROI = 40120 ~electric
Next Energywww.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
Since oil is big in the transportation sector…
… a short history lesson.
How did transportation transform? • from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to• liquid fuels (oil)
And where do we go from here?
Lest we forget …They did bring coal to Newcastle.
...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …
No joke!
The original buggy whip protest
The Horseless Carriage
From GridLock to Gas Lines
Corn Cars & Bean Buses?
Back to solid fuels?
The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)
Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…
Touch?
… and it is ephemeral, like solar power.
See?
A match made in heaven.
Lift?
The Electric Rail
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.ecotopia.com/ST
Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place…
www.ecotopia.com/ST
• EROI of biofuels too low for urban transport…
(not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)
• Fuels will remain essential for:
• Airplanes
• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs)
• Agriculture
•But Solar Is the Key to our Transportation Future!
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.
Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.
Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OilCoa
lGas
Fission
Biomas
s
Hydro
electr
ic
Solar,
wind, g
eoth
ermal
0.5%
Source: BP & IEA
2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OilCoa
lGas
Fusio
n / F
issio
n
Biomas
s
Hydro
electr
ic
Solar,
wind
, geo
therm
al
2050
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables]
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
PV: The Growth Industry
OilOil
PVPV
Oil declines at 4%/yr
PV increases at 50%/yr
The conclusions are simple:
• We are not doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital
resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.
• Then we must act quickly with resolve.
Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?
Colin Campbell
“Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.”
1996
www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
Yes!
“Think TeraWatts”
www.solarquest.com/Workshops/China
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.
Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.