Transcript of National Center for Photovoltaics Photovoltaics: Solar Electricity Technology Overview...
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Photovoltaics: Solar
Electricity Technology Overview Photovoltaics: Solar Electricity
Technology Overview John P. Benner, Manager Electronic Materials
and Devices Division National Center for Photovoltaics
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- A Decade of Growth Then: 1991 Total Sales46.5 MW Cost Module
$6, System $12 Major Manufacturers ARCO/Siemens7 MW Solarex5.4 MW
Sanyo4.9 MW Kyocera4.5 MW Use Grid-Connected 15 % Off-Grid 60 %
Wholesale 1 % Consumer 24 % and Now: 2001 Total Sales287.7 MW Cost
Module $4, System $ 8 Major Manufacturers Sharp50 MW Kyocera42 MW
BP Solar41 MW Siemens/Shell33 MW Use Grid-Connected 55 % Off-Grid
44 % Wholesale 1 % Consumer --
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- National Center for Photovoltaics World PV Cell/Module
Production (1988-2001) (in Megawatts) From PV News, Paul Maycock,
editor; yearly February editions.
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- National Center for Photovoltaics
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- Photovoltaics (PV) is Cost Competitive in Many Applications
today! -- Further Cost Reductions will expand markets eventually
reaching utility scale applications in the U.S. Advanced Technology
Required: XEngineering in manufacturing and new designs to reduce
cost of collector area ($/ft 2 ) XPhysics and Chemistry of higher
efficiency materials, processes and devices (more watt/ ft 2 )
XSystems tests and durability to extend service life
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- National Center for Photovoltaics 02679656 PV Portable Power
Systems Remote, off-grid power: Telecommunications Signaling
Disaster mitigation Emergency power
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- National Center for Photovoltaics 02679654 PV Markets and
Applications International Rural electrification: Schools and
clinics Village power ZambiaIndia BrazilMexico South Africa
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Establish a consistent
message within the community Instill confidence in decision makers
and investor Identify and guide opportunities for shared
development Develop improved interactions with other industries
that have solved similar problems before us Clarify barriers and
coordinate response within the community What Would You Hope a
Roadmap Will Do? The U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap
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- National Center for Photovoltaics U.S. Terrestrial PV Industry
Roadmap Vision What does the U.S. industry look like with 25%
annual growth to 2020? >6 GW sales...Where are you going to put
it? Big Picture Requirements for this growth Good business Faster
growing domestic markets Continuation of 80% experience curve
Markets and Applications -- 50:50 Domestic:Export Domestic Markets
Segments in 2020 1/2 AC Distributed, e.g. BIPV (retail) 1/3 DC
& AC value applications 1/6 AC Grid (wholesale)
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Cumulative Worldwide PV
Shipments High Value, National Residential, Enabling Microgrids,
Village, Commercial BIPV, Architectural Utility, Wholesale
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Technical, Market &
Institutional Barriers Example: Creating 200-MW Factories by 2020
Requirements: 5-fold cost reduction by 2010, 10-fold by 2020
80-Fold increase in module volume Near Term Actions (0-3 years)
Develop partnerships between manufacturers & suppliers
Manufacturing Center of Excellence high volume equipment
demonstrations Develop in-line diagnostics and intelligent
processing Longer-Term Actions Design lower-cost packaging Develop
industry standard equipment
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Other Key Barriers
Infrastructure Supplies of Si Feedstock, encapsulation Trained
manufacturing, installation, and inspection labor force
Distribution and support channels Standards and Consistency
Feedstock, materials & production equipment Products, packages
& services Utility interconnection, electrical&mechanical
interfaces, and ratings Government policy Communication, Awareness
& Education
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- National Center for Photovoltaics What is the NCPV ? The NCPV
is the organization established (11/96) by the U.S./DOE to lead
their photovoltaics efforts by: Performing world-class R&D
dedicated to advancing PV; Promoting partnering & growth
opportunities; Serving as a forum and information source; and
Guiding and assisting the U.S. DOE PV activities toward maintaining
& enhancing U.S. technological and industrial leadership.
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Founding Objectives Partner
with the U.S. PV industry toward achieving performance and cost
goals, making PV competitive on a global scale. Serve as the single
point-of-contact for PV information, education, and outreach.
Provide strategic guidance, direction, and coordination to ensure
the best use of our DOE national laboratory and university
capabilities. Facilitate strategic partnerships with domestic &
international stakeholders, especially to overcome
market/institutional barriers. Implement DOEs national PV Program
through R&D, in partnership with the U.S. industry.
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- National Center for Photovoltaics
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- NCPV R&D PV Program Laboratory Electronic Materials &
Devices Measurements & Characterization Engineering &
Reliability PV Systems Applications & Outreach Basic Sciences
Contracts Thin Film Partnership PVMaT High Performance Beyond the
Horizon PV Buildings (Bonus) Applications
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- National Center for Photovoltaics ~90% of today's market Proven
products, 20-year warranties Large ingots: 100 kg CZ, 200 kg
casting Multiple ingots w/ melt replenishment Wire saw: < 300 m
wafers, < 200 m kerf Well-developed technology base new
understanding of defects/impurities New interest in thin silicon
growth Crystalline Silicon (Ingot-Based) PV Efficiency
StatusCellsModules Czochralski 22.0 1315 Cast poly 19.8 1013
Ribbon14-15 10-12 Silicon Film 12 8-10 Key Issue: PV is now
outgrowing the IC industry! Silicon Feed Stock Supply
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Powerlight Roof Integrated PV
System Combines PV Power with Energy Saving from Insulation
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Rekindled Interest in
Concentrators 1/6 of Domestic Market in Roadmap High Performance
1/3 of the Sun Coordination with Concentrated Solar Power Program
NREL 1 eV Material GaInAsN BGaInAs ZnGeAs 2 Spectral Standards
Coordination with Module Development Utility Interest
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Efficiencies: Si (up to 400X)
27 GaAs (up to 1000X) 28 GaInP 2 /GaAs (1X) 30.3 GaInP 2 /GaAs
(180X) 30.2 GaInP 2 /GaAs/Ge (40600X) 34.0 X Module efficiencies:
15-17% (Si); best prototypes: >20% (Si), >24% (GaAs), 28%
(GaInP 2 /GaAs/Ge,10X) X Large space markets drive GaInP 2 /GaAs
and GaInP 2 /GaAs/Ge commercial cell production High-Efficiency and
Concentrator PVProgress and Status Key companies : Amonix,
Spectrolab, Tecstar, Emcore, Sunpower, ENTECH; Solar Research Corp.
(Australia) X Manufacturability demonstrated Low-concentration,
line focus High-concentration, point focus High efficiency cells
(Si, GaAs, multijunctions) in production X Limited applications in
today's markets 02679613 ENTECH Amonix Spectrolab
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Efficiency (%) CuInSe 2 CdTe
Amorphous silicon (stabilized) Univ. of Maine Boeing ARCO AMETEK
Photon Energy NREL Boeing EuroCIS Univ. of So. Florida Univ. of So.
FL BP Solar Kodak Monosolar Matsushita 12 8 4 0
20001995199019851980 1975 United Solar 16 20 NREL The Best
One-of-a-Kind Laboratory Cell Efficiencies for Thin Films (Standard
Conditions) 2005 RCA Record laboratory efficiencies, new materials,
and innovations Commercial product efficiencies and reliability
increasing: 20-25 year warranties for crystalline silicon, 5-10
years for thin films Multiple technology paths : Crystalline
silicon (ingot- and non-ingot-based) Thin films (amorphous Si,
CdTe, copper indium diselenide, silicon) Concentrators and high
efficiency NREL
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Efficiency
status:CellsModules a-Si:H (stabilized)13.2 78 CIS18.85-11.5
CdTe16.5>10 Concentrators21.5 -- Thin-Film PV 5 and 10 MW plants
a-Si:H operational Tens of MW in polycrystalline nearing production
Unique products for building integration (e.g., roofing, cladding)
Advanced Transparent Conducting Oxides (TCOs) 02679607
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- National Center for Photovoltaics BP Building Integrated PV
Systems Power the pumps. and improve sales Transparent
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Toano, Va Facility Throughput
& Yield
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Scalability of
high-efficiency processes: Predictive models of materials growth,
devices, and processes Real-time process controls Yield and
throughput New techniques and materials Non-vacuum approaches
Low-temperature depositions Thin-Film Copper Indium Diselenide
(CIS) PV Research Issues and Directions Very high-efficiency (~25%)
device research: Higher bandgaps and multijunctions Optimization of
solar resource: high-efficiency top cell (2/3 of total efficiency)
Tunnel (shorting) junction Process compatibility of different
layers Alternate front and back contacts 02679612 SEM images of
stages of film growth (a d) a. Cu-rich c. Slightly In-rich b.
Stoichiometric d. In-rich
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Flexible Flexible Thin-Film
Products Open New Markets Uni-Solar Amorphous Silicon Field Applied
Roofing Products in units to 128W (18x16, 17 lbs, 33V & 3.88 A
@mp) CIGS on Polyimide and Stainless Steel from Global Solar 36.5 W
4.9% module, 8.9% cell @28.5 cm 2 area Understanding Stainless
Steel Incorporating Na Intelligent Process Controls
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Highest Efficiency
Large-Area, Thin-Film Modules
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Average Annual Government PV
Research, Development, and Deployment Budgets Millions US Dollars
Year - Domestic market 16% of Sales - Manufacturing locating near
major markets - Research moving to most favorable locations
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Energy Significant U.S.
Photovoltaic Industry Production Product Development Business
Success Energy Significant 10% of new electricity capacity Prudhoe
Bay 10% of U.S. Electricity Capacity
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- National Center for Photovoltaics
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- Terrestrial Photovoltaics in the U.S. Growth Entering the Steep
Slope of the S Curve Hockey Stick? New Markets, Larger
Installations BIPV, Utility tied concentrators Large Investments
$50B in U.S. based Systems, $20B Direct Manufacturing, $10B Feed
stock, Glass, and other vendors Time to Production Infrastructure
and Supply Chain Silicon supply will again be limiting within 2
years and wont go away Strong Consumer Support Trends in
Distributed Power and Global Climate Change
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- National Center for Photovoltaics Photovoltaics is Solar
Electricity Good for our economy and energy independence Good for
our environment Clean and abundant energy for the 21st Century DOE
PV Program Goal: U.S. leadership in technology, industry, and
markets High-technology manufacturing jobs 02803203 Solar can
supply all electricity for the U.S. using this area (100 x 100 mi.)
in the SW OR Distributed applications throughout the U.S. (vacant
land, building-integrated, etc.)