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National Center for Photovoltaics Photovoltaics: Solar Electricity Technology Overview Photovoltaics: Solar Electricity Technology Overview John P. Benner, Manager Electronic Materials and Devices Division National Center for Photovoltaics

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A Decade of Growth Then: 1991 Total Sales46.5 MW Cost Module $6, System $12 Major Manufacturers ARCO/Siemens7 MW Solarex5.4 MW Sanyo4.9 MW Kyocera4.5 MW Use Grid-Connected 15 % Off-Grid 60 % Wholesale 1 % Consumer 24 % and Now: 2001 Total Sales287.7 MW Cost Module $4, System $ 8 Major Manufacturers Sharp50 MW Kyocera42 MW BP Solar41 MW Siemens/Shell33 MW Use Grid-Connected 55 % Off-Grid 44 % Wholesale 1 % Consumer --

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National Center for Photovoltaics World PV Cell/Module Production (1988-2001) (in Megawatts) From PV News, Paul Maycock, editor; yearly February editions.

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National Center for Photovoltaics

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Photovoltaics (PV) is Cost Competitive in Many Applications today! -- Further Cost Reductions will expand markets eventually reaching utility scale applications in the U.S. Advanced Technology Required: XEngineering in manufacturing and new designs to reduce cost of collector area ($/ft 2 ) XPhysics and Chemistry of higher efficiency materials, processes and devices (more watt/ ft 2 ) XSystems tests and durability to extend service life

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National Center for Photovoltaics 02679656 PV Portable Power Systems Remote, off-grid power: Telecommunications Signaling Disaster mitigation Emergency power

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National Center for Photovoltaics 02679654 PV Markets and Applications International Rural electrification: Schools and clinics Village power ZambiaIndia BrazilMexico South Africa

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National Center for Photovoltaics Establish a consistent message within the community Instill confidence in decision makers and investor Identify and guide opportunities for shared development Develop improved interactions with other industries that have solved similar problems before us Clarify barriers and coordinate response within the community What Would You Hope a Roadmap Will Do? The U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap

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National Center for Photovoltaics U.S. Terrestrial PV Industry Roadmap Vision What does the U.S. industry look like with 25% annual growth to 2020? >6 GW sales...Where are you going to put it? Big Picture Requirements for this growth Good business Faster growing domestic markets Continuation of 80% experience curve Markets and Applications -- 50:50 Domestic:Export Domestic Markets Segments in 2020 1/2 AC Distributed, e.g. BIPV (retail) 1/3 DC & AC value applications 1/6 AC Grid (wholesale)

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National Center for Photovoltaics Cumulative Worldwide PV Shipments High Value, National Residential, Enabling Microgrids, Village, Commercial BIPV, Architectural Utility, Wholesale

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National Center for Photovoltaics Technical, Market & Institutional Barriers Example: Creating 200-MW Factories by 2020 Requirements: 5-fold cost reduction by 2010, 10-fold by 2020 80-Fold increase in module volume Near Term Actions (0-3 years) Develop partnerships between manufacturers & suppliers Manufacturing Center of Excellence high volume equipment demonstrations Develop in-line diagnostics and intelligent processing Longer-Term Actions Design lower-cost packaging Develop industry standard equipment

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National Center for Photovoltaics Other Key Barriers Infrastructure Supplies of Si Feedstock, encapsulation Trained manufacturing, installation, and inspection labor force Distribution and support channels Standards and Consistency Feedstock, materials & production equipment Products, packages & services Utility interconnection, electrical&mechanical interfaces, and ratings Government policy Communication, Awareness & Education

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National Center for Photovoltaics What is the NCPV ? The NCPV is the organization established (11/96) by the U.S./DOE to lead their photovoltaics efforts by: Performing world-class R&D dedicated to advancing PV; Promoting partnering & growth opportunities; Serving as a forum and information source; and Guiding and assisting the U.S. DOE PV activities toward maintaining & enhancing U.S. technological and industrial leadership.

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National Center for Photovoltaics Founding Objectives Partner with the U.S. PV industry toward achieving performance and cost goals, making PV competitive on a global scale. Serve as the single point-of-contact for PV information, education, and outreach. Provide strategic guidance, direction, and coordination to ensure the best use of our DOE national laboratory and university capabilities. Facilitate strategic partnerships with domestic & international stakeholders, especially to overcome market/institutional barriers. Implement DOEs national PV Program through R&D, in partnership with the U.S. industry.

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National Center for Photovoltaics

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NCPV R&D PV Program Laboratory Electronic Materials & Devices Measurements & Characterization Engineering & Reliability PV Systems Applications & Outreach Basic Sciences Contracts Thin Film Partnership PVMaT High Performance Beyond the Horizon PV Buildings (Bonus) Applications

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National Center for Photovoltaics ~90% of today's market Proven products, 20-year warranties Large ingots: 100 kg CZ, 200 kg casting Multiple ingots w/ melt replenishment Wire saw: < 300 m wafers, < 200 m kerf Well-developed technology base new understanding of defects/impurities New interest in thin silicon growth Crystalline Silicon (Ingot-Based) PV Efficiency StatusCellsModules Czochralski 22.0 1315 Cast poly 19.8 1013 Ribbon14-15 10-12 Silicon Film 12 8-10 Key Issue: PV is now outgrowing the IC industry! Silicon Feed Stock Supply

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National Center for Photovoltaics Powerlight Roof Integrated PV System Combines PV Power with Energy Saving from Insulation

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National Center for Photovoltaics Rekindled Interest in Concentrators 1/6 of Domestic Market in Roadmap High Performance 1/3 of the Sun Coordination with Concentrated Solar Power Program NREL 1 eV Material GaInAsN BGaInAs ZnGeAs 2 Spectral Standards Coordination with Module Development Utility Interest

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National Center for Photovoltaics Efficiencies: Si (up to 400X) 27 GaAs (up to 1000X) 28 GaInP 2 /GaAs (1X) 30.3 GaInP 2 /GaAs (180X) 30.2 GaInP 2 /GaAs/Ge (40600X) 34.0 X Module efficiencies: 15-17% (Si); best prototypes: >20% (Si), >24% (GaAs), 28% (GaInP 2 /GaAs/Ge,10X) X Large space markets drive GaInP 2 /GaAs and GaInP 2 /GaAs/Ge commercial cell production High-Efficiency and Concentrator PVProgress and Status Key companies : Amonix, Spectrolab, Tecstar, Emcore, Sunpower, ENTECH; Solar Research Corp. (Australia) X Manufacturability demonstrated Low-concentration, line focus High-concentration, point focus High efficiency cells (Si, GaAs, multijunctions) in production X Limited applications in today's markets 02679613 ENTECH Amonix Spectrolab

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National Center for Photovoltaics Efficiency (%) CuInSe 2 CdTe Amorphous silicon (stabilized) Univ. of Maine Boeing ARCO AMETEK Photon Energy NREL Boeing EuroCIS Univ. of So. Florida Univ. of So. FL BP Solar Kodak Monosolar Matsushita 12 8 4 0 20001995199019851980 1975 United Solar 16 20 NREL The Best One-of-a-Kind Laboratory Cell Efficiencies for Thin Films (Standard Conditions) 2005 RCA Record laboratory efficiencies, new materials, and innovations Commercial product efficiencies and reliability increasing: 20-25 year warranties for crystalline silicon, 5-10 years for thin films Multiple technology paths : Crystalline silicon (ingot- and non-ingot-based) Thin films (amorphous Si, CdTe, copper indium diselenide, silicon) Concentrators and high efficiency NREL

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National Center for Photovoltaics Efficiency status:CellsModules a-Si:H (stabilized)13.2 78 CIS18.85-11.5 CdTe16.5>10 Concentrators21.5 -- Thin-Film PV 5 and 10 MW plants a-Si:H operational Tens of MW in polycrystalline nearing production Unique products for building integration (e.g., roofing, cladding) Advanced Transparent Conducting Oxides (TCOs) 02679607

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National Center for Photovoltaics BP Building Integrated PV Systems Power the pumps. and improve sales Transparent

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National Center for Photovoltaics Toano, Va Facility Throughput & Yield

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National Center for Photovoltaics Scalability of high-efficiency processes: Predictive models of materials growth, devices, and processes Real-time process controls Yield and throughput New techniques and materials Non-vacuum approaches Low-temperature depositions Thin-Film Copper Indium Diselenide (CIS) PV Research Issues and Directions Very high-efficiency (~25%) device research: Higher bandgaps and multijunctions Optimization of solar resource: high-efficiency top cell (2/3 of total efficiency) Tunnel (shorting) junction Process compatibility of different layers Alternate front and back contacts 02679612 SEM images of stages of film growth (a d) a. Cu-rich c. Slightly In-rich b. Stoichiometric d. In-rich

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National Center for Photovoltaics Flexible Flexible Thin-Film Products Open New Markets Uni-Solar Amorphous Silicon Field Applied Roofing Products in units to 128W (18x16, 17 lbs, 33V & 3.88 A @mp) CIGS on Polyimide and Stainless Steel from Global Solar 36.5 W 4.9% module, 8.9% cell @28.5 cm 2 area Understanding Stainless Steel Incorporating Na Intelligent Process Controls

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National Center for Photovoltaics Highest Efficiency Large-Area, Thin-Film Modules

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National Center for Photovoltaics Average Annual Government PV Research, Development, and Deployment Budgets Millions US Dollars Year - Domestic market 16% of Sales - Manufacturing locating near major markets - Research moving to most favorable locations

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National Center for Photovoltaics Energy Significant U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Production Product Development Business Success Energy Significant 10% of new electricity capacity Prudhoe Bay 10% of U.S. Electricity Capacity

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National Center for Photovoltaics

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Terrestrial Photovoltaics in the U.S. Growth Entering the Steep Slope of the S Curve Hockey Stick? New Markets, Larger Installations BIPV, Utility tied concentrators Large Investments $50B in U.S. based Systems, $20B Direct Manufacturing, $10B Feed stock, Glass, and other vendors Time to Production Infrastructure and Supply Chain Silicon supply will again be limiting within 2 years and wont go away Strong Consumer Support Trends in Distributed Power and Global Climate Change

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National Center for Photovoltaics Photovoltaics is Solar Electricity Good for our economy and energy independence Good for our environment Clean and abundant energy for the 21st Century DOE PV Program Goal: U.S. leadership in technology, industry, and markets High-technology manufacturing jobs 02803203 Solar can supply all electricity for the U.S. using this area (100 x 100 mi.) in the SW OR Distributed applications throughout the U.S. (vacant land, building-integrated, etc.)