Post on 17-Nov-2014
description
Engaging the Next Billion
Nathan Eagle
Jana, Inc.
Boston
Mumbai
San Francisco
Singapore
http://jana.com
2
Mobile Phone Users by Country
Mobile Ownership
3
Facebook Users by Country
4
Failures using Top-Down Data
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Mobile Operator Data: CDR
• CDR Column Elements– Caller (Texter) / Receiver
• Hashed ID!
– Time / Duration– Cellular Towers
• Typical Data– 1 Month – 5 Years– 5% – 100% of the population
Reactions to Regional Shocks
• Spatial Dynamic Bayesian Anomaly Detection– Quantify tower-level behavioral priors
N. Eagle and E. Horvitz. (2009).‘Spatial Dynamic Bayesian Anomaly Detection for Real-Time Disease Detection’, AAAI.
Failures using Bottom-Up Data
SMS Blood Bank
• Real-time monitoring of blood supplies at local district hospitals in Eastern Kenya
Lessons
• In emerging markets, phone subscriptions are pre-paid– No contract– Free to receive incoming
calls, texts, etc.– Constantly adding small
amounts of airtime from kiosks
Small amounts of airtime =
electronic cash USIn
dia
Indo
nesia
Brazil
Colom
bia0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Post-paidPre-paid
Prepaid Dominance
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Global Survey Partners
By integrating into the systems of 232 mobile operators, Jana can reward 2.1 billion consumers across the world.
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Mobile Survey Lessons
• Financial incentives required to offset usage costs• Great source of people• Solid pre-qualification platform• Basic data collection platform
– Need to limit to 5-10 questions– Questions ideally “multiple choice” style– Cannot think in terms of smart-phones / large screens / touch
screens
• Possibly a way to drive people to better interface?– Full browser Internet, focus groups, phone interview, face-to-
face, etc.
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Multiple Survey Channels
SMS
Structured data Longer surveys
Mobile Web Web / Facebook
UCMP
Structured data Longer surveys
Penetration – 5 billion handsets
Penetration – 5 billion handsets
Speed – open session No cost to end-user
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Self-Serve Platform: What Would You Do with $15?
“Buy perfume”
“Pay my school fees”
“I’d give it to the needy”
“Pay dowry”
“Give it to my mosque”
“I’d put it in the bank”
“Buy a domain name for my website”
N = BILLIONS…
nathan@jana.com
eagle@hsph.harvard.eduJana
http://jana.com
Engineering Social Systems
http://hsph.harvard.edu/ess
Explosive Facebook Growth
Facebook: India (#3)
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Users: 41 Million
6-Month Growth Rate: 33%
Penetration of Online Population: 51%
Facebook: Russia (#29)
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Users: 5 Million
6-Month Growth Rate: 8%
Penetration of Online Population: 9%
Facebook: Philippines (#8)
22
Users: 27 Million
6-Month Growth Rate: 6%
Penetration of Online Population: 91%
Facebook: Vietnam (#41)
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Users: 4 Million
6-Month Growth Rate: 25%
Penetration of Online Population: 15%
04/08/202324PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL
What laundry detergents are
favored in Brazil, India &
China?
IP
IP
IP
IP
Fastest Growing Economies
Top 10 countries by GDP per capita growth (% YoY) 2010 – 2050
Note: Average annual growth rates of GDP per capita (% YoY) measured in 2010 PPP USD
Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL
World GDP 2010 - 2050
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; Citi Investment Research and Analysis
2010 2050
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL
Middle Class Consumption
Source: EU EEA
PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL
Top 10 Largest Economies
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; Citi Investment Research and Analysis (trillion 2010 PPP USD)
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The Gateway to the Emerging Market Consumer
How can I deploy targeted
coupons?Is my product available on store
shelves?
How do we promote group buying among
rural Indian women?
How is our brand perceived?
How can I sell more cereal in the Philippines?
What do Chinese consumers think about fruit juice?
How can we incentivize consumers to try our products? How do I integrate
“social” into my marketing campaigns?
How do we raise awareness with rural consumers
How much does a kilo of rice cost in that marketplace?
Is there a way to instigate group purchasing behavior?