Post on 21-Aug-2015
ex IBMerex Red Hatterwork @ Currency OneI like games
About me
"Go board part" by Dilaudid - Own work; modified from Image:Go_board.jpg, which was made by user:donarreiskoffer. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.●Certainty - how well understood a thing
is.
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:● Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.● Certainty - how well understood a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Ubiquity
Certainty
a.k.a. Wonder - I wonder what it can do.● New● Novel● Unknown● Uncertain● Rare● Changing● Chaotic
Genesis
You will die before you make any money out of it.*
Do I have a chance?
*or at least get very old, as the evolution speed accelerates
●Measured●Stable●Predictable●Cost of doing business●Market penetration near 100%●Usually invisible to the user●Electricity, Network, Computing
Utility
●contract to fulfill●sheer price matters●no room for innovation●really large scale●nobody will see that●existing users may not be willing to switch unless you’re
significantly cheaperocan you be significantly cheaper without deep
experience in the field?
Startup problems
New electricity provider?
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
power
computing power
social network
● custom built● off-the-shelf product/rental● maturing
Transitional phase
● IBM Watson● cars● virtual personal assistants (Google Now, Apple Siri, Amazon Echo)
Canonical vs Red Hat●a number of years of really unsuccessful fight●tough competition of free, open sourced products●huge inertia proportional to the size of adopter
community●product needs to be 9x better to cause replacement*●entering still possible, time-proportional market share
product-to-product startup
* heard from one business angel, may be an approximation
No. Unless you’ve got ●a really, really good product●a really, really good sales●a lot of time
Do I have a chance?
Three types of innovation●genesis●product-to-product, utility-to-utility●there is one more...
That said...
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
peaceful competitionwonder
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
● to increase the overall effectiveness of sales departments [...];
● to improve the effectiveness of sales to large customers [...];
● [...] more precise monitoring of the level of customer satisfaction[...];
● [...] price policy (promotional offers, packaging of services) [...];
● [...] ATMAN Private Cloud [...];
● [...] sales of services outside Poland [...].
Inertia
http://media.atm.com.pl/en/pr/291131/atm-publishes-its-financial-report-for-the-third-quarter-of-2014
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
companies stop here
takes product, makes “cost of doing business” utilityexamples:● Amazon EC2● Neostrada
product-to-utility startup
● effectiveness - when the price defends youo what is the cost of your own datacenter/e-mail server?o Something is so cheap, that suddenly everyone can afford it
l Ford Tl Commodore 64l Printed books
● Jevons effect
Industrialization
The Wardley Mapping is really powerful technique:l HS2l HM Governmentl Dutch Governmentl Two very large banks
Why?
I work on a tool designed for mapping.
The tool is open-source (ASL 2.0).
I need you to start using it.
You need to be AWARE!
Reasons
certain kind of very interesting innovationsscale mattersdifferent scales requires different approachesopen source helpsbeware of inertia
Do I have a chance - summary