MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING

Peter HoeppeGeo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre

2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large Scale Catastrophes

Munich Re NatCatSERVICE – One of the world‘s most comprehensive databases on natural catastrophes

From 1980 until today all loss events

For USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since 1970

Retrospectively all Great Natural Catastrophes since 1950

In addition all major historical events starting from 79 AD – eruption of Mt.Vesuvio (3,000 historical data

sets)

Currently more than 26,000 events documented

Great natural catastrophes:

Hurricane Ike Cyclone Nargis

Earthquake China

Winter damage China

Extreme temperature (heat wave, forest fires)

Flood

Storm

Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption

Natural catastrophes 2008

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 2

MR NatCatSERVICE Breakdown into catastrophe categories

Catastrophe class Overall losses and/or fatalities

Loss profile 1980s* 1990s* 2000 – 2008*

0 Natural event No property damage - - - none

1 Small-scale loss event Small-scale property damage

- - - 1-9

2 Moderate loss event Moderate property and structural damage

- - - > 10

3 Severe catastrophe Severe property, infrastructure and structural damage

US$ >25m US$ > 40m US$ > 50m > 20

4 Major catastrophe Major property, infrastructure and structural damage

US$ > 85m US$ > 160m US$ > 200m > 100

5 Devastating catastrophe

Devastating losses within the affected region

US$ > 275m US$ > 400m US$ > 500m > 500

6 Great natural catastrophe „GREAT disaster“

Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude.

* Losses adjusted to the decade average.

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 3

MR NatCatSERVICEEntry details: example Hurrikan Ike

Separate entries for the affected countries

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 4

MR NatCatSERVICEEntry details: example Hurrican Ike

Number of fatalities

Event description

Affected lines of business

Affected people

Affected infrastructure

Affected buildings

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 5

MR NatCatSERVICEExample: Hurrican Ike - Damages

30/o09/2008

Insured losses

Munich Re shareAdditional loss information

Overall losses

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 6

MR NatCatSERVICEMethodology

Expert Consultation

Harmonizing terminology of disaster perilsCRED

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 7

Geophysical Geophysical

Family

MeteorologicalMeteorological

Hydrological Hydrological

ClimatologicalClimatological

Main event

Earthquake

Volcanic eruption

Mass movement dry

Earthquake

Volcanic eruption

Mass movement dry

Sub Peril

Earthquake (Ground shaking)

Fire following

Tsunami

Earthquake (Ground shaking)

Fire following

Tsunami

Volcanic eruptionVolcanic eruption

Subsidence

Rockfall

Landslide

Subsidence

Rockfall

Landslide

MR NatCatSERVICEStructure – peril families

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 8

MR NatCatSERVICEStructure – peril families

StormStorm

Tropical cyclone

Winter storm (extratropical cyclone)

Tempest/Severe storm

Hail storm

Lightning

Tornado

Local windstorm (orographic storm)

Sandstorm/Dust storm

Blizzard/Snowstorm

Tropical cyclone

Winter storm (extratropical cyclone)

Tempest/Severe storm

Hail storm

Lightning

Tornado

Local windstorm (orographic storm)

Sandstorm/Dust storm

Blizzard/Snowstorm

Geophysical Geophysical

MeteorologicalMeteorological

Hydrological Hydrological

ClimatologicalClimatological

Family Main event Sub Peril

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 9

MR NatCatSERVICEStructure – peril families

Flood

Mass movement wet

Flood

Mass movement wet

General flood

Flash flood

Storm surge

Glacial lake outburst flood

General flood

Flash flood

Storm surge

Glacial lake outburst flood

Subsidence

Avalanche

Landslide

Subsidence

Avalanche

Landslide

Geophysical Geophysical

MeteorologicalMeteorological

Hydrological Hydrological

ClimatologicalClimatological

Family Main event Sub Peril

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 10

MR NatCatSERVICE Structure – peril families

Extreme temperature

Drought

Wildfire

Extreme temperature

Drought

Wildfire

Heat wave

Cold wave / frost

Extreme winter conditions

Heat wave

Cold wave / frost

Extreme winter conditions

DroughtDrought

Wildfire

Unspecified

Wildfire

Unspecified

Geophysical Geophysical

MeteorologicalMeteorological

Hydrological Hydrological

ClimatologicalClimatological

Family Main event Sub Peril

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 11

MR NatCatSERVICESources

Science Government, UN, EU, NGOs

News-Agencies

Meteorological Services

Insurance

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 12

Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2008Percentage distribution worldwide

285 Loss events 2,000,000 Fatalities

Overall losses* US$ 1,970bn Insured losses* US$ 410bn

28%

41%

25%

6%

9%

80%

6% 5%

33%

38%

22%

7%

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Meteorological events(Storm)

Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)

*in 2008 values *in 2008 values

53%37%

6% 4%

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 13

MR NatCatSERVICEServices & Analysis

Thematic maps

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 14

MR NatCatSERVICEDownload-Center

There are 50 documents available in each language version

2008:30 000 Downloads

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 15

MR NatCatSERVICEAccess&User

ScienceGeneral public

Political committees

Analysts, investors

Clients

Staff

NatCatSERVICE

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 16

NATHAN

Web-based tool for risk analysis on natural perils worldwide plus

additional information on major disasters and country profiles

Web-based tool for risk analysis on natural perils worldwide plus

additional information on major disasters and country profiles

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 10.04.23 17

MR NatCatSERVICEServices

NATHAN - loss information

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 10.04.23 18

World Map of Natural Hazards/Globe of Natural Hazards – DVD / Wall map / Folding map

19

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products

Wall map/Folding map – World Map of Natural Hazards

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products

DVD – Globe of Natural Hazards

Knowledge in astate of flux All global hazard maps have been updated

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

New hazards Topics like flood and climate change are fully integrated

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

Hazard pointerPower function supplies quick information on situation regarding natural hazards and climate change for any location on earth

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

View from spaceKnowledge can be displayed with a satellite image in the background

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

Networked knowledge

Complex topics like risk management of natural hazards and climate change are linked in a sophisticated manner

Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

Global Earthquake Model (GEM)Features

Dynamic: an (updatable) model, not a map

Global: covers also less developed/monitored areas according to uniform standards

Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody

Public Private Partnership: combining the strenghts of both sectors

An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD, aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world

GEM: A Public-Private Partnership

International Scientific

Organisations

Intergovernmentaland

Governmental

EU

LeadingScientific Institutes

Zurich

Industry

GEM goals

=> Assess and monitor risk globally, especially in less well served regions

=> Raise risk awareness

=> Stimulate risk mitigation

=> Save lives, reduce losses and distribute the financial burden

GEM is not an academic exercise. The goal is to convert “knowledge into action”.

To achieve GEM’s goals we need “local champions”

• Probability of directfinancial loss

HAZARD RISK SOCIO-ECONOMIC

IMPACT €

Earthquake probabilities Building Code input

Earthquake impactUser awareness of risk

Financial toolsCost-Benefit Analysis

• Building inventories• Vulnerabilities• Probability of

damage• Probability of loss of lives

• Probability of indirect financial loss

GEM SetupGEM SetupGEM integrates developments at the forefront of seismological andGEM integrates developments at the forefront of seismological and engineering knowledge inengineering knowledge in three interconnected modulesthree interconnected modules

Probability ofearthquake occurrence

Probability of ground motion

5-yr Build-up phase: 35 m5-yr Build-up phase: 35 m€• Secretariat and global infrastructure• Global components• Regional implementation

Annual maintenance and operation: 2 mAnnual maintenance and operation: 2 m€/yr/yr

15m€ 15m€

Founding sponsor, Munich Re

Other sponsors (in progress)

Public Funds (in progress)

5m€

GEM Funding Scheme

THANK YOU!