Post on 15-Dec-2015
Monsoons, Megawatts, and Monster Catfish
Conflict and Cooperation over Mainland Southeast Asia’s Transboundary RiversDarrin MageeHobart & William Smith Colleges
Asia’s water tower…Qinghai-Tibet
Plateau
… and powershed?
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River as Untapped Resource Yunnan hydro development push since mid-1980s Lancang-Mekong
4800 km long (1200 in YN) 6 countries
Nu-Salween 2800 km long (600 in YN) 3 countries
Jinsha-Chang-Yangtze 6300 km long 9 Provinces + Tibet border
Now: 120 GW; 2020: 300 GW; Potential: 384 GW
Manwan Dam
Elevation (m)
Distance (km)
MW
JH
GLBMS
DCS
NZD
LTJ
JBWNL
TB
HD T
MK
GGQ
XW
Jinghong
Qujing
Lijiang
Kunming
Simao
Dali
Nu
River
GLB
JH
MS
NZD
DCSMW
XW
GGQ
0 75 150 225 300 375 km
Lancang Dams
Lancang Cascade
Yunnan Huaneng Lancang Hydro Co. One of five power conglomerates split off
from former Ministry of Electric Power Officially “stock company” but majority of
stocks are non-tradable Development begun in 1987; first dam
completed in 1993 (Manwan)
5
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Middle Lancang River 澜沧江
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Nu Cascade
~600 km
~1100 m
Songta4200 MW
307 m
Bingzhongluo1600 MW
55 m
Maji4200 MW
300 m
Lumadeng2000 MW
165 m
Fugong400 MW
60 m
Bijiang1500 MW
71 m
(Y)abiluo1800 MW
133 m
Liuku180 MW
36 m
Shitouzai440 MW
59 mLushui
2400 MW175 m
Saige1000 MW
79 mYansangshu
1000 MW84 m
Guangpo600 MW
58 m
Jinghong
Qujing
Lijiang
Kunming
Simao
Dali
Nu
River
GLB
JH
MS
NZD
DCSMW
XW
GGQ
0 75 150 225 300 375 km
Lancang Dams
Yunnan Huadian Nu River Hydro Co. One of five power conglomerates split off
from former Ministry of Electric Power Officially “stock company” but majority of
stocks are non-tradable Development halted in March 2004 by
Premier for failure to follow EIA procedures Ongoing “illegal” development halted again in
spring 2009
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9
Middle Nu River 怒江
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Policy Framework
Western Development Campaign (2001) Focus on resources and infrastructure
Send Western Electricity East (西电东送 ) Prioritized in 2001
Send Yunnan Power to Guangdong (滇电粤送 ) Ultra-high-voltage DC lines (800 kV) by 2010
Send Yunnan Electricity Outward (云电外送 ) Power sales to Vietnam since 2004, Thailand next
Pan-Pearl River Delta (凡珠三角 )
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Three West-East Corridors (通道 )
Beijing /
Tianjin area
Shanghai / Zhejiang / Jiangsu area
Guangdong / PRD
Northern Corridor
From: Yalong Tsangpo
& Yellow
To: Capital area
Middle Corridor
From: Jinsha/Upper Yangtze
To: Shanghai area
Southern Corridor
From: Lancang/Nu
To: Guangdong area
Nepal
India
China
Bhutan
Bangladesh
GMS
GMS: Reasons for the (sub)region
1992 Asian Development Bank 6 Members 2005 Summit in China Naturalizing discourse
Grids Roads Rail Shipping Tourism Goods
EXPORTING EXPERTISEChina’s dam-builders go south (and elsewhere)
Global dam efforts by Chinese firms Roughly 100 projects (McDonald et al., 2008) Often coupled with related infrastructure
Roads, bridges, communications Investment approach in addition to aid
Motivated in large part by primary resource needs Reforms in electric power industry open door
for flexibility and opportunism (Magee 2006; McDonald et al., 2008)
Magee, D. Powershed Politics. The China Quarterly 185 (2006).McDonald, K., et al., Exporting dams: China’s hydropower industry goes global, Journal of Environmental Management (2008).
Exporting knowledge
Africa Algeria, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo, Sudan
Eastern Europe Albania, Georgia
Central Asia/Middle East Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Pakistan
And of course, next door…
China and Mainland SE Asia China upstream, regional power
Projects key to China’s western and regional development Concerns downstream about China hegemony
Mekong River Commission (MRC) Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam members China, Myanmar dialogue partners
MSEA governments, with or without blessing of MRC, buying into China hydro development Inter-government Agreement for Power Trade in GMS Thai co-investment in Chinese power stations Power sales from China to Vietnam GMS focus on regional power grid integration Power lines across Laos to Thailand
Mekong River Commission New Strategic Plan (2006-2010)
“more investments in irrigation, navigation, and hydropower are bound to occur”
“appropriate exploitation of hydropower potential” “potential area for cooperative development” Review & update hydropower assessment (30 GW) Hydropower “can play several important roles” Modeling & assessment of proposed projects
13 GW on mainstream Mekong 13 GW on major Mekong tributaries
Energy Profile: Cambodia
Installed capacity: ~0.012 GW Theoretical capacity: ~10 GW Much of infrastructure, including power grid,
was destroyed during latter half of 1900s Widespread dependence on diesel
generators for power (high cost, highly polluting, dependent on oil imports)
More than 20 isolated systems
Energy Profile: Vietnam
Installed capacity: ~4.5 GW Theoretical capacity: ~18 GW Plans for additional 5 GW by 2010 Transboundary power sales already
occurring from Yunnan since 2004 (110 kV) New 500-kV line completed in 2006
Energy Profile: Laos Installed capacity: ~0.7 GW Theoretical capacity: ~30 GW Second greatest hydro potential on Mekong “Battery” for powering GMS development “Transhipment” point for power transfers Sinohydro, China National Electronics, and
China Datang all bidding on Mekong cascade e.g., Xanakham (600 MW, US $880M)
Energy Profile: Thailand
Installed capacity: ~3.5 GW Theoretical capacity: ~15 GW Most of technically, economically and
politically feasible hydropower already built Significant popular resistance to new projects
and to operating rules of existing projects
Energy Profile: Myanmar (Burma) Installed capacity: ~0.75 GW Theoretical capacity: ~37 GW Developing massive reserves requires
international partnerships, made difficult by military regime in power
Ta Sang Project on Salween: 7110 MW Thailand major investor, Chinese interest growing Majority of power will go to Thailand
Sinohydro Consulting and construction company built
from assets of former MEP Projects
Kamchay 193 MW, US $280M, largest investment by China in Cambodia, largest hydro project in Cambodia; also Kirirom III (13 MW)
Paklay (1320 MW) on Mekong in Laos Also high-speed rail in China and other
infrastructure projects in Angola
Grid Corporations
Two national-level grid corporations from MEP Restructuring in 2002 was intended to
separate generation from transmission in the electric power industry China State Grid Xin Yuan International Investment
Co. for Kirirom III (13 MW) in Cambodia China Southern Power Grid signed MOU in 2007 to
conduct feasibility study for Sambor (3300 MW or 465 MW) and Stung Cheay Areng (260 MW) in Cambodia
SOUTHEAST ASIA’S RIVERS BE DAMMED?
Why the push southward?
China’s power shortages, future surplus? “Soft power” approach to regional relations
Resource diplomacy throughout GMS Curbing Japanese influence in the region
Japan Banking and Investment Corporation wields considerable influence through infrastructure funds
Asian Development Bank – Japan major partner Mekong River Commission – Japan major donor
Social and Ecological Concerns Changes to flow regime may impact downstream
fishing and agriculture Sediment trapping reduces natural fertilization of
floodplain and dam efficiency Resettlement disrupts social fabric and livelihoods Interference with local power provision Concerns about increase in dissolved gases,
potential for methane production in warm reservoirs Great uncertainty due to political obstacles to
scientific collaboration and data-sharing
Monsoons
Real concerns about dam impacts on unique Tonle Sap ecosystem
Monsoon season Water enters lake
Dry season Water leaves lake
Major protein and rice source
Monster Catfish
Charismatic megafauna? Giant catfish of symbol of
unique Mekong system Decidedly less cuddly than
pandas Real concerns about
future of anadromous fish in Mekong and tributaries ~10 species migrate north
past Chinese border No fish passage structures
Pros and cons of large dams
Benefits Irrigation Flood control Power generation Navigation Recreation
Costs Altered flow regime
Impacts on ecosystems and human communities
Change in water quality Population displacement Habitat alteration Health risks
To dam or not?
Multipurpose dams Why do they often fail to meet design expectations?
How do dams alter the hydrograph of a river? Highs? Lows?
Particularities of dams on transboundary rivers in China/Mainland SE Asia
Do the benefits outweigh the costs? Is C/B analysis even a good way to evaluate?
Sustainable Development?
Questions
Darrin Magee, Ph.D.
Environmental Studies Program
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
magee@hws.edu