Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species

Nathan PiekielekWhitebark pine project planning

session

Objective• Create future spatially-explicit species distribution

models for GYE:– Douglas fir– Lodgepole pine– Others?

• Incorporate competition into future models

• Compare to simulation modeling results

Douglas Fir Results

778 Presence

Models: BRT, MARS, RF

Predictors: tmin4, pptannave,permave

AUC: 0.83 – 0.87Crossval: 0.815 – 0.83

% Correct Classified: 75 – 78.3%Crossval: 73.6 – 76.2%

Lodgepole Pine Results

1071 Presence

Models: BRT, GLM, MARS, RF

Predictors: gdd5, deft10, pptannave, sandfract, siltfractpermave, phave

AUC: 0.75 – 0.89Crossval: 0.75 – 0.83

% Correct Classified: 69.3 – 80.6%Crossval: 69.5 – 75.6%

Prob

abili

ty o

f Pre

senc

e

0.82

0.16

PRESENTRCP 8.5

2070 - 2100

Draft Future Results – Douglas Fir

Geographic Properties of Areas of Suitable Climate (RCP 8.5)

Prob. Presence > 50% Current 2040 2070 2100

Area 41,191 km2 5,237 km2

(87% reduction)

Mean elevation 2,073 m (6,801 ft)

2,337 m(7,667 ft)

Elevation Range 965 – 3,301 m(3,166 – 10,830 ft)

1,317-3,922 m(4,320 – 12,867 ft)

Examining present day competition

N=454 FIA sites

23 sites WBP only

Examining present day competition with

Douglas firN=60 FIA sites

Examining present day competition with Lodgepole pineN=189 FIA sites

Examining present day competition with

Engelmann spruceN=289 FIA sites

Examining present day competition with

Subalpine firN=331 FIA sites

One way future competition options

• Binary:– WBP in presence of some other species always

loses (i.e. model future WBP absence)

• Continuous:– Use probability of presence of competitors to

“adjust down” probability of presence of WBP

• Other?