Post on 26-Mar-2018
Decision SupportDecision Support
JoJožžef Stefanef Stefan International Postgraduate SchoolInternational Postgraduate School, Ljubljana, LjubljanaProgramme: Programme: Information and Communication TechnologiesInformation and Communication Technologies
Course Web Page: Course Web Page: http://http://kt.ijs.si/MarkoBohanec/DS/DS.htmlkt.ijs.si/MarkoBohanec/DS/DS.html
Marko BohanecMarko Bohanec
Institut Jožef Stefan, Department of Knowledge Technologies, Ljubljanaand
University of Nova Gorica
Marko Bohanec
data
Data MiningData Mining
knowledge discovery from data
decision makers+experts+decision analysts
Decision SupportDecision Support
modelling
model
model
Use of models:
• classification
• clustering
• evaluation
• analysis
• visualization
• explanation
• ...
Decision Making DisciplinesDecision Making Disciplines
Marko Bohanec
Decision Making
Decision SystemsDecision Sciences
Who or what is making decisions?
computerman
• decision theory• utility theory ...
• cognitive sciences• social sciences ...
Decision SupportDescriptiveNormative
Decision Making DisciplinesDecision Making Disciplines
Marko Bohanec
Decision Making
Decision SystemsDecision Sciences
Who or what is making decisions?
computerman
Decision SystemsDecision Systems
Marko Bohanec
Decision Systems
• computers• intelligent programs and systems• robots and autonomous systems
Honda Asimo
Curiosity Mars Rover DARPA Grand Challenge
Decision Making DisciplinesDecision Making Disciplines
Marko Bohanec
Decision Making
Decision SystemsDecision Sciences
Who or what is making decisions?
computerman
• decision theory• utility theory ...
• cognitive sciences• social sciences ...
Decision SupportDescriptiveNormative
Preference RelationsPreference Relations
Preference: we like/desire/prefer one thing over another
Preference relations:
Some properties:
Marko Bohanec
ba~ indifference
ba≻ strict preference
ba ≻ weak preference
Given any a and b , then ba≻ , ba~ , or ba≺
If ba≻ and cb≻ , then ca≻
If ba~ and cb~ , then ca~
If ba ≻ , then ba≻ or ba~
Utility Theory, Value TheoryUtility Theory, Value Theory
Utility functions (or value functions):
Marko Bohanec
)()(~ buauba =⇔
)()( buauba >⇔≻
Decision TheoryDecision Theory
Decision table:
Types of decisions:
• Certainty: all relevant parameters have known values
• Risk: certain future events have probable outcomes
• (Strict) Uncertainty: impossible to assess the likelihood of future events
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Alternatives
Take umbrella Do not take umbrella
Rains 0.4 0 States
Does not rain 0.9 1
Decision TDecision Treesrees
Decision table:
Decision tree:
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Alternatives
Take umbrella Do not take umbrella
Rains 0.4 0 States
Does not rain 0.9 1
0.4
0.9
0
1
Take
Don’t take
Rain
Rain
No rain
No rain
p=0.8
p=0.8
p=0.2
p=0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
Further Theoretical AspectsFurther Theoretical Aspects
• Bayesian decision theory
• Multi-attribute utility theory
• Multi-stage problems
• Group decisions
• Game theory
• ...
Marko Bohanec
Decision Making DisciplinesDecision Making Disciplines
Marko Bohanec
Decision Making
Decision SystemsDecision Sciences
Who or what is making decisions?
computerman
• decision theory• utility theory ...
• cognitive sciences• social sciences ...
Decision SupportDescriptiveNormative
Descriptive ApproachDescriptive Approach
Observing how people really make decisions
Herbert Simon: ‘bounded rationality’, ‘satisficing’
• Behavioral Economics
• Cognitive Science:– psychology
– social sciences
– neuroscience
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InterdisciplinarilyInterdisciplinarily on Decision Makingon Decision Making
A. Ule, O. Markič, U. Kordeš (eds.):Konteksti odločanja.Maribor: Aristej, 2009.
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INDECS 7(2): Interdisciplinarily on Decision Making.http://indecs.eu/index.php?s=7_2&y=2009
Dan Dan ArielyAriely: Predictably Irrational: Predictably Irrational
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Nobel Prize Winners in EconomyNobel Prize Winners in Economy2007: LEONID HURWICZ, ERIC S. MASKIN and ROGER B. MYERSON
for having laid the foundations of mechanism design theory. 2005: ROBERT J. AUMANN and THOMAS C. SCHELLING
for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis.
2002: DANIEL KAHNEMANfor having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty.
1994: JOHN C. HARSANYI, JOHN F. NASH and REINHARD SELTENfor their pioneering analysis of equilibria in the theory of non-cooperative games.
1978: HERBERT A. SIMONfor his pioneering research into the decision-making process within economic organizations.
1972: SIR JOHN R. HICKS and KENNETH J. ARROWfor their pioneering contributions to general economic equilibrium theory and welfare theory.
Marko Bohanec
Decision Making DisciplinesDecision Making Disciplines
Marko Bohanec
Decision Making
Decision SystemsDecision Sciences
Who or what is making decisions?
computerman
• decision theory• utility theory ...
• cognitive sciences• social sciences ...
Decision SupportDescriptiveNormative
What is Decision Support?What is Decision Support?
Given the principles of rational decision making,
knowing that decision making can be difficult for people,
can we help the decision makers to make better decisions?
Decision Support:
Providing methods and tools for supporting people in making difficult decisions
How can we support decision making?
Marko Bohanec
MindMind--MapsMaps
Marko Bohanechttp://blog.iqmatrix.com/mind-map/3-new-premium-iq-matrix-mind-maps-released-4
Data Storage, Search and RetrievalData Storage, Search and Retrieval
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Data Cube Pivot Table
Representation and Representation and VisualisationVisualisation ToolsTools
Marko Bohanechttp://paida.sourceforge.net/
Data AnalysisData Analysis
Marko Bohanechttp://www.theintentionexperiment.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/trend_analysis_plot_for_ntotalall.bmp
ComputerComputer--Supported Collaborative WorkSupported Collaborative Work
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Central Decision Support DisciplinesCentral Decision Support Disciplines
Marko Bohanec
Decision Support
Decision AnalysisOperational Research Decision Support Systems
• decision process, stages• modeling• evaluation• finding ‘sufficiently good’
solutions
• mathematical formulation of the decision problem
• searching for optimal solutions
• information systems• decision support• business intelligence
Decision AnalysisDecision AnalysisDecision Analysis: “Applied Decision Theory”
Provides a framework for analyzing decision problems by• structuring and breaking them down into more
manageable parts,• explicitly considering the:
– possible alternatives,– available information– uncertainties involved, and – relevant preferences
• combining these to arrive at “sufficiently good” decisions
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Decision Making and Decision ProcessDecision Making and Decision ProcessDecision:Conscious and deliberate selection of one alternative (option)from a set of possible onesso that it best satisfies the goals of the decision maker.
Decision Making: A process that involves:• identification of the decision problem;• collecting and verifying relevant information;• identifying decision alternatives;• anticipating consequences of decisions;• making the decision;• providing rationale for the decision;• implementing the selected alternative;• evaluating the consequences of the decision.
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Types of DecisionsTypes of Decisions
• Easy (routine, everyday) vs. Difficult (complex)
• One-Time vs. Recurring
• One-Stage vs. Sequential
• Single Objective vs. Multiple Objectives
• Individual vs. Group
• Structured vs. Unstructured
• Tactical, Operational, Strategic
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Types of DecisionsTypes of Decisions
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STRATEGIC
TACTICAL
OPERATIONAL
ORGANISATIONAL LEVELS OF MANAGEMENTSTRUCTURE
OF DECISION PROBLEMS
STRUCTURED
UNSTRUCTURED
STRATEGIC
TACTICAL
OPERATIONAL
ORGANISATIONAL LEVELS OF MANAGEMENTSTRUCTURE
OF DECISION PROBLEMS
STRUCTURED
UNSTRUCTURED
Characteristics of InformationCharacteristics of Information
Properties of information Operational level Strategic level Exactness high low Level of detail detailed aggregated Time span presence future Frequency of use high low Sources inside outside Viewpoint narrow wide Type quantitative qualitative
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Decision Process StagesDecision Process Stages (Herbert Simon)(Herbert Simon)
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INTELLIGENCE• Fact Finding• Problem/Opportunity Sensing• Analysis/Exploration
DESIGN• Formulation of Solutions• Generation of Alternatives• Modelling/Simulation
CHOICE
• Alternative Selection• Goal Maximization• Decision Making• Implementation
Evaluation ModelsEvaluation Models
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EVALUATION
MODEL
EVALUATION
MODEL
options
EVALUATION
ANALYSIS
Examples of DecisionExamples of Decision MModelodelss
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pairwise comparison
multi-attribute model
hierarchical multi-attribute model
Alternative A B C D
A –1 1 0
B 1 1
C –1
D
Weight
Alternative
Attribute
A B C D
10 Salary 8 10 6 5
7 Interestingness 4 8 2 6
5 Location 4 2 9 1
5 Safety 4 6 9 2
4 Image 8 9 7 7
3 Promotion 6 4 8 10
3 Co-workers 2 0 4 8
Evaluation 204 244 228 189
Job
Work
Interestingness Satisfaction
Benefits
Salary Knowledge Other
Promotion Image
Organisation
Location Co-workers Flexibility
Decision Support Research at JSIDecision Support Research at JSI
Decision Supportsupporting people in complex decision-making processes
Marko Bohanec
• Tools
• Applications
Decision Analysis
Multi-Attribute Modeling
Qualitative Multi-Attribute Modeling
http://kt.ijs.si/MarkoBohanec/dss.html
Decision Support Research at IJSDecision Support Research at IJS
• Methods– Decision Analysis– Qualitative Multi-Attribute Modelling– Data Mining and Decision Support
• Software– DEXi: Multi-attribute decision support
• Applications:– Applications for clients: evaluation of
companies, personnel management, project evaluation, land-use planning, agronomy, medicine and health-care, sport
Hormonalcircumstances
Personalcharacteristics Other
Menstrualcycle Fertility
Oralcontracept.
RISK
Cancerog.exposure
Fertilityduration
Reg. andstab. of men.
Age
First delivery
# deliveries
Quetel'sindex
Familyhistory
Demograph.circumstance
Physicalfactors
ChemicalfactorsMenopause
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ApplicationsApplications
Marko Bohanec
1. Loan Allocation2. Evaluation/Selection of Projects3. Evaluation/Selection of Locations4. Medical Risk Assessment5. Agronomy: GM Crops and Cropping Systems
Allocation of Housing LoansAllocation of Housing LoansHousing Fund of the Republic of Slovenia
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Priority
Ownership
Housing
Present
Suitability
Solving
Work stage
Advantages
Health
Family
Age
Stage
Status
Soc-Health-Social
Earnings
Maint/Employ
Children
Evaluation ofEvaluation of R&D ProjectsR&D Projects
Marko Bohanec
Environmental: ClayEnvironmental: Clay--Pit LocationPit Location
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2
4
3
1
Legend:
1 Bukovnik
2 Margetnca
3 Existing clay-pit
4 Okroglica
Brick factory
Slovenia
Bohanec, M., Rajkovič, V.: Multi-attribute decision modeling: Industrial applications of DEX, Informatica 23, 487-491, 1999.
ClayClay--Pit Location ModelPit Location Model
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SITE SUITABSITE SUITAB
ATTRACTATTRACT VULNERABVULNERAB
FEASIBILITYFEASIBILITYENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT
SOC-PSYCHSOC-PSYCH TECHNTECHN ECONOMECONOM
•develop
•site char.
•land attr.
•develop
•site char.
•land attr.
•pollution
•valuation
•land use
•pollution
•valuation
•land use
•transport
•construct
•land org.
•transport
•construct
•land org.
•direct
•indirect
•direct
•indirect
Medicine:Medicine:Breast Cancer Risk AssessmentBreast Cancer Risk Assessment
Hormonalcircumstances
Personalcharacteristics Other
Menstrualcycle Fertility
Oralcontracept.
RISK
Cancerog.exposure
Fertilityduration
Reg. andstab. of men.
Age
First delivery
# deliveries
Quetel'sindex
Familyhistory
Demograph.circumstance
Physicalfactors
ChemicalfactorsMenopause
Bohanec, M., Zupan, B., Rajkovič, V.: Applications of qualitative multi-attribute decision models in health care, International Journal of Medical Informatics 58-59, 191-205, 2000.
Diabetic Foot Risk AssessmentDiabetic Foot Risk Assessment
History Present status Tests
Symptoms Ulcers Amputations
RISK
Other changes Deformities
Loss of prot. sensation
Absence of pulse
Marko Bohanec
ECOGEN 2003-2006 http://www.ecogen.dk/Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops
EU Projects on GM organismsEU Projects on GM organisms
SIGMEA 2004-2007 http://sigmea.dyndns.org/Sustainable introduction of genetically modified crops into European agriculture
Co-Extra 2006-2009 http://www.coextra.eu/Co-existence and traceabilitiy of GM and non-GM supply chains
Marko Bohanec
Evaluating cropping systems in terms of ecology, coexistence and economy
Cropping system n
Cropping system 2
Cropping system 1 INPUTS
OUTPUTS
ECOLOGY ECONOMY
MODEL
COEXISTENCE
multi-attribute model
ECOGEN and SIGMEA ModelsECOGEN and SIGMEA Models ““GrignonGrignon”” Model: Ecology PartModel: Ecology Part
Marko Bohanec
Bohanec, M., Messéan, A., Scatasta, S., Angevin, F., Griffiths, B., Krogh, P.H., Žnidaršič, M., Džeroski, S.:A qualitative multi-attribute model for economic and ecological assessment of genetically modified crops.Ecological Modelling 215, 247-261, 2008.
CONTEXT CROP MANAGEMENT
soil
state
nutrition
state
CROP PROTECTION
weed
control
pest
control
disease
control
weed
profile climate soil farm type
chemical
fertiliz. use
soil
tillage
water
managmt crop
sub-type
biodiversity soil
biodiversity
water
quality
greenhouse
gasses
ECOLOGY
herbivores
pollinators
weed biomass
predators parasitoids indirect
CO2 CO2 N2O
runoff
water
undergrnd
water
pesticide
use
fertilizer
use
fuel
use
herbicide
use
insecticide
use
fungicide
use
physical
stress
physical
disturbance
climatic
disturbance
soil
fertilization
chemical
disturbance
weed ctrl.
applications
““GrignonGrignon”” Model: Economy PartModel: Economy Part
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expected yield
ECONOMY
yields
objective
quality
price
product.
value
CONTEXT
regulatory environment
quality
weed
state
pest
state
YIELD
consumer perc.qual.
technical properties
potential yield
yield strategy
toxines impurity
pesticide costs
seed costs
water costs
labour costs
machinery costs
fertilizer costs
fuel costs
variable
costs
seed
use
water
use
manpower
use
machinery
use
fuel
use
mach+fuel costs
material costs
defficient
nutrition
yield reduction
crop sub-type
nutrition state
CROP MANAGEMENT
chemical
fertiliz. use
fungicide
costs insecticide costs
fungicide
use insecticide use herbicide
use
herbicide costs
AnalyticalMeth
FitForPurposePurposeFitness
FitForExtraction
SiteFitness
Site
FitForOnSiteExtraction
OnSiteExtraction
BestForPurposeConstraints
MethDevelopedDeveloped DevelopementStage
SOP
SuggestedSamples
MethEvaluation
MethPerformance MethPerformance_DNAEx
Yield
DNADNAExtraction
FragmentationDNA
FragmentationHandling
IngredientEffect
StarchStarchEffect
ProteinsProteinEffect
LipidsLipidEffect
SaltSaltEffect
MetalsMetalEffect
Purity
StarchStarchHandling
ProteinsProteinHandling
LipidsLipidHandling
SaltSaltHandling
MetalsMetalHandling
Inhibitors
InhibitorHandlingRobustness
MethApplicability MethApplicabilityExtractionGenerality
SampleHandling
FragmentedDNASamples
LowDNASamples
StarchSamples
ProteinSamples
LipidSamples
SaltSamples
MetalSamples
Costs
BestForDevelopmentConstraints
MethEvaluation MethCosts
FixedCosts
MaterialCostsEquipmentCosts
InfrastructureCosts
NonMaterialCostsCompetenceCosts
ValidationCosts
RunningCosts
Efficiency
Consumables/Sample
Samples/Day
PersonalCosts
DevelopmentCosts
StarchContents
ProteinContents
LipidContents
SaltContents
MetalContents
InhibitorContents
DNAContents
FragmentedSample
Assessment of DNA Analysis MethodsAssessment of DNA Analysis Methods
Marko Bohanec
Decision Support for Data MiningDecision Support for Data MiningFP7 STREP e-Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Collaborative Research
2010-2012 in Data Mining and Data-Intensive Sciences
Rapid Miner’s Workflows(automatically generated)
overallWFassessment
UNDERSTANDABILITY
Interpretability
Familiarity
Complexity
Size
NumNodes
NumEdges
ControlFlow
Interconnectedness
NumPaths
Density
SplitsJoins
Modularity
GraphDegree
AverageGD
MaxGD
ROBUSTNESS
Generality
NoiseSensitivity
Scalability
TIME
Assessment of Workflows(qualitative multi-attribute model)
Other Application AreasOther Application Areas
Marko Bohanec
• Advising in Sports• Business partner selection• Evaluation of technology:
cars, computers, software, Web pages and services, ...• Evaluation of investment proposals, tenders• Production portfolio evaluation• Performance evaluation of companies• Personnel management• Banking: Financial risk indicators• Data Mining: Assessment of workflows• ...
Central Decision Support DisciplinesCentral Decision Support Disciplines
Marko Bohanec
Decision Support
Decision AnalysisOperational Research Decision Support Systems
• decision process, stages• modeling• evaluation• finding ‘sufficiently good’
solutions
• mathematical formulation of the decision problem
• searching for optimal solutions
• information systems• decision support• business intelligence
Decision Support Systems (DSS)Decision Support Systems (DSS)
Decision Support Systems:
• interactive computer-based information systems• that support decision-making activities
Characteristics:• DSS incorporate both data and models; • they are designed to assist managers in their decision processes in
semistructured (or unstructured) tasks; • they support, rather than replace, managerial judgment; • their objective is to improve the quality and effectiveness (rather than
efficiency) of decisions.
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Taxonomy of Decision Support SystemsTaxonomy of Decision Support Systems
• A communication-driven DSS supports more than one person working on a shared task
• A data-driven DSS or data-oriented DSS emphasizes access to and manipulation of a data (internal, external, time series, ...)
• A document-driven DSS manages, retrieves, and manipulates unstructured information in a variety of electronic formats
• A knowledge-driven DSS provides specialized problem-solvingexpertise stored as facts, rules, procedures, or in similar structures.
• A model-driven DSS emphasizes access to and manipulation of a statistical, financial, optimization, or simulation model. Model-driven DSS use data and parameters provided by users to assist decision makers in analyzing a situation; they are not necessarily data-intensive.
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History of Decision Support SystemsHistory of Decision Support Systemstheory: operational research, decision analysispractice: interactive computers
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1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
first DSSs
specialisation: MIS, EIS, ES, GDSS, ...
data warehouseson-line analytical processing (OLAP)data mining
business intelligenceweb-based DSS
Marko Bohanec
Traffic Control Traffic Control (Dragomelj)(Dragomelj)
Marko Bohanec
Traffic ControlTraffic Control
Omerčević, D., Zupančič, M., Bohanec, M., Kastelic, T.:Intelligent response to highway traffic situations and road incidents.Proc. TRA 2008, Transport Research Arena Europe 2008, 21-24 April 2008, Ljubljana.
SMAC AdvisorSMAC Advisor: Decision Support Tool: Decision Support Tool
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SMAC Advisor Wizard User Interface
Co-Existence
Multi-Attribute DEXi Model
MAPOD Simulation Results
1
2
3
SMAC Advisor ArchitectureSMAC Advisor Architecture
SummarySummary
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Decision Making
Decision SystemsDecision Sciences
Decision SupportDescriptiveNormative
Decision AnalysisOperational Research Decision Support Systems