Post on 22-Feb-2016
description
Update on EcoOBM (Officer Box Model, for Physical Exchanges) and Translation to Criteria-
Relevant Metrics
Mark BrushCHRP 2012 Managers’ Workshop
Officer Box Model:exchanges = f (freshwater, salinity)
• Fast run times• Exchanges independent of ROMS• Enables long term runs: 2001-09
• 7 gauged rivers • Ungauged area extrapolated• WWTFs• PPT and
Evaporation
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
12/6/99 4/19/01 9/1/02 1/14/04 5/28/05 10/10/06 2/22/08 7/6/09 11/18/10
3S_S
3B_S
3S
3B
Insomniacs NuShuttle+ Buoys+
Box Model: Exchanges = f (freshwater, salinity)
EcoOBM: Exchanges Compared to ROMS
Rogers (2008)
vs.
3D ROMS
2D boxmodel
Destination Box
Frac
tion
of W
ater
Box Model
ROMS
Source Box
2006
EcoOBM: Surface Layer Chl-a
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
mg m-3
0123456
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
01234567
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EcoOBM: Phyto NPP
g C m-2 d-1
EcoOBM: Bottom DO
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
g m-3
010203040506070
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Surface Chl- a, mg/m3
Bottom O20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Standard Run
50% Load Reduction
Criterion:
40 ug/l 30 ug/l 20 ug/l
Std Run 3.4 12.7 33.8
50% Load 1.4 6.5 23.9
% Chance of Violations:
Stochastic Simulation
MeanDO
MinimumDO
% Non-Compliance
1 0.7 ± 0.03 99.6
2 1.4 ± 0.05 97.2
3 2.2 ± 0.06 91.6
4 3.1 ± 0.06 78.7
5 4.1 ± 0.07 63.2
6 5.0 ± 0.08 46.0
7 6.0 ± 0.09 34.6
8 7.0 ± 0.10 24.1
Empirical Linkages to Assess State Criteria:Temporal Variability
Buoy Data
Empirical Linkages to Assess State Criteria:Spatial Variability
0
5
10
15
0 5 10 15
Min
imum
Box
DO
, mg l
-1
Mean Box DO, mg l-1
All Data
Surface
Bottom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 5 10 15
Min
imum
Box
DO
, mg
l-1
Mean Box DO, mg l-1
Box 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 5 10 15
Min
imum
Box
DO
, mg
l-1
Mean Box DO, mg l-1
Box 2
Insomniacs Data
CHRP II Funding
Add 2010+ for a decade-long model run (2001-2010+)
Compare OBM and ROMS exchanges for 2007+ (currently 2006 only)
Develop functions for salinity and pycnocline depth vs. physical forcing (i.e. FW loading); add variable hypsography
Scenario runs in collaboration with RI DEM
Online hosting of EcoOBM
y = 26.363e-0.109x
R² = 0.5899
05
101520253035
0 2 4 6 8
Box
Aver
age
Salin
ity
10-Day Average FW Input, x 106 m3 d-1
Box 1S
y = 28.553e-0.078x
R² = 0.6402
05
101520253035
0 2 4 6 8
Box
Aver
age
Salin
ity10-Day Average FW Input, x 106 m3 d-1
Box 2S
CHRP II Funding
+ selected runs in Greenwich Bay model to assess role of macroalgae in hypoxia
Current EcoOBM Applications
Proposal pending:• Bush/Gundpowder Rivers, MD• Neuse River, NC• Pensacola/Escambia Bays, FL
Lake dissertation chapter:• Narr Bay vs. York River vs.
New River (including MPB)
Online Model Hosting
Capability has been developed:http://www3.vims.edu/netsim/netsims/brush/wrr_model_apr_2011/index.html
Online Model Hosting
Capability has been developed:http://www3.vims.edu/netsim/netsims/brush/wrr_model_apr_2011/index.html
Online Model Hosting
Preliminary EcoOBM version: