Post on 19-Jan-2016
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Managing RiskHow individual perspectives influence
how safety is managed. Capt. John Gadzinski
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
The world as we see it
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When the Universe Changes
James Burke– “You see what your knowledge tells
you you’re seeing. When that knowledge changes, the whole universe changes. The effect is the same for society as it is for the individual.”
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Mapping what’s important
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Mathematical perspective
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New Knowledge, New Map…
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Knowing what’s unknown
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Charting the chances…
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Perspectives on Probability
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What is the question?
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$
?
One Paradox of Probability
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To Switch or Not?
Another Paradox…
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Number of battered women in 1992 4,000,000
1600 women were murdered by the same people who committed the reported battery, therefore…
Chance of battered woman being killed by husband/boyfriend – 1/2500.
Convincing – Yes, True – Yes Relevant – NO!!
Prosecutors Fallacy
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Of all the women who were murdered in 1993,
90% were killed by the same person who abused them.
This fact was never brought up by the prosecution. The defendant did not have an equal probability of being considered for murder…
Accidents and Probability
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Charles Perrow
In complex systems we can expect minor factors usually ignored to sometimes have major consequences.
Accidents are normal. They are an expected by product of a complex system.
Virgil Moshansky
Collecting the data
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Data
Analysis
A Precise Map of the Unpredictable
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“CRFI Unreliable”
HazardRecognition?
Communication?
You say Tomato, I say…
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The first hazard to look for…
• Our Own Psychology– Making order out of
randomness
• Cultural Myths– Little is left to chance– Bad things happen to
bad people– Safety is a measure
of errors and mistakes
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The Same People
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Four Winds ConsultingA member of The Spectrum Group
John GadzinskiCell (757) 343-4432
E-mail: tuba737@msn.com.
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”