Managing Risk
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Managing Risk How individual perspectives influence how safety is managed. Capt. John Gadzinski Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in
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Managing Risk. How individual perspectives influence how safety is managed. Capt. John Gadzinski. The world as we see it. When the Universe Changes. James Burke - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Managing Risk
Managing RiskHow individual perspectives influence
how safety is managed. Capt. John Gadzinski
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
The world as we see it
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
When the Universe Changes
James Burke– “You see what your knowledge tells
you you’re seeing. When that knowledge changes, the whole universe changes. The effect is the same for society as it is for the individual.”
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Mapping what’s important
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Mathematical perspective
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
New Knowledge, New Map…
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Knowing what’s unknown
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Charting the chances…
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Perspectives on Probability
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
What is the question?
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
$
?
One Paradox of Probability
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
To Switch or Not?
Another Paradox…
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Number of battered women in 1992 4,000,000
1600 women were murdered by the same people who committed the reported battery, therefore…
Chance of battered woman being killed by husband/boyfriend – 1/2500.
Convincing – Yes, True – Yes Relevant – NO!!
Prosecutors Fallacy
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Of all the women who were murdered in 1993,
90% were killed by the same person who abused them.
This fact was never brought up by the prosecution. The defendant did not have an equal probability of being considered for murder…
Accidents and Probability
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Charles Perrow
In complex systems we can expect minor factors usually ignored to sometimes have major consequences.
Accidents are normal. They are an expected by product of a complex system.
Virgil Moshansky
Collecting the data
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Data
Analysis
A Precise Map of the Unpredictable
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
“CRFI Unreliable”
HazardRecognition?
Communication?
You say Tomato, I say…
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
The first hazard to look for…
• Our Own Psychology– Making order out of
randomness
• Cultural Myths– Little is left to chance– Bad things happen to
bad people– Safety is a measure
of errors and mistakes
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
The Same People
InsertQuote, Graph or Picture
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Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
Four Winds ConsultingA member of The Spectrum Group
John GadzinskiCell (757) 343-4432
E-mail: [email protected].
Four Winds Consulting LLC“Your Direction in Safety”
