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International Scientific Symposium on Emerging Issues in Environmental and

Occupational Health: Mining and Construction in Transition Economies Yerevan, Armenia; April 22-23, 2013

Ian von Lindern PhD, PE

TerraGraphics International Foundation (TIFO) Moscow, Idaho USA

Managing Community Metals Poisoning in the Global Economy

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Lead Poisoning -The World’s Worst are Becoming Worse

More Children at More Places are being More Severely Poisoned

(Other Metals to Follow)

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The outdated three worlds model

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Price of Lead 1900-2010 Lead Value (U.S. Geological Survey, Oct 2010)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Pri

ce (

$/t

on

)

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

World’s Worst Lead Sites 1970s Bunker Hill Smelter – Idaho USA 1973-75

Smelter Kosovo, Yugoslavia 1972-1975

Broken Hill Smelter – Kabwe, Zambia 1972-75

Thousands of children poisoned in surrounding areas Blood lead levels 40-200 ug/dl Some mortality, several comatose in Kabwe, extensive

CNS / brain damage All coincided with high lead price in 1970’s

Bunker Hill Site Mean Blood Lead Levels: 1974-2002

*

* *

U.S. Average

*

“Elevated” blood lead level

Bunker Hill Site Idaho US Mean Blood Lead Levels: 1974-2002

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Bunker Hill Smelter, Idaho US

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TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Kabwe, Zambia

Pollutants: lead Type: Soil Source: lead mine, smelter Legacy Cleanup effort: Early Progress

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Kabwe, Zambia

Health On average, childrens’ blood levels in Kabwe are 5 to 10 X

allowable levels

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Kabwe, Zambia

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Kabwe, Zambia

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Trepca Smelter, Mitrovica, Kosovo

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TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Legacy waste and tailings piles

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Contaminated residential areas near smelter

United States Historic Childhood Blood Lead Levels

UU

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New World Order

Developed Countries (High Income)

Middle Income Countries

Low Income Countries (Poor)

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

New World Order

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Price of Lead 1900-2010 Lead Value (U.S. Geological Survey, Oct 2010)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Pri

ce (

$/t

on

)

TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Gold prices continue to rise

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World Totals for Lead (1000 tonnes)

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TerraGraphics International Foundation, Inc. Assistance to communities to reduce environmental exposures

Primary Lead Production by Region

ILZSG

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ROW 12%

Europe 21%

N. Amer. 20%

China 32%

Asia minus China 15%

2010

Shift in Location of Lead Production

2000

ROW 5%

Europe 10%

N. Amer. 8%

China 67%

Asia minus China 10%

2

Lead Consumption 2010

1. Primary lead smelting has moved from the West to China 2. Primary lead demand is fueled by “new” uses -primarily vehicle growth as

new vehicles need new lead 3. Lead recycling is essentially a closed loop and cannot address growth 4. Forecast mined lead output will not keep pace with new lead demand

resulting in supply deficits 5. Very little new mine production is coming on-stream post 2010 6. Combination of limited lead concentrate availability and excess smelting

capacity in China will increase competition for concentrates and keep TC’s low

7. So will primary lead production survive in the recycling era? Unequivocally YES!

Summary of Primary Lead Smelting Industry Perspective

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Summary of Mining and Primary Smelting Health and Environment Perspective

Mining – controlled in Developed Countries; varied in Middle Income countries; lax in Poor Countries

Primary Smelting – Leaving Developed Countries; varied in Middle Income Countries; absent in Poor Countries; most in China

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Recycling and Recovery – Secondary Smelting The Formal Sector

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Summary of Lead Pollution / Exposure Secondary Smelting Formal Sector

Controlled in Developed Countries leaving the US for lesser controlled Middle Income Countries

Varied in Middle Income Countries Absent in Poor Countries

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Figure 1: Historical Metal and Mineral Production

in Australia (1825 – 2005) (Mudd, 2007)

Other Metals and Ores - Historic Production

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Figure 2: Historical ore grade trends in Australia

(1825 – 2005) (Mudd, 2007)

Other Metals and Ores - Historic Ore Quality

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Summary of Lead Pollution / Exposure Secondary Smelting and Other Metals

Recovery in the Informal Sector

Absent in Developed Countries

Varied in Middle Income Countries

Rampant and Uncontrolled in Poor Countries

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Rare Earth Elements (REE)

Rare Earth Elements-The Next Generation

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Average Projected Growth in REE Demand between 2010 and 2035 is 5.3 %

Demand for all the REE Individual REE share

Uses and Demands for Rare Earth Elements

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REE Production 1956-2008

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Conclusions

Mineral Exploitation will Continue at an Exponential Rate

Lower Grade Ores and Wastes will become more Valuable

Developed Countries are Exporting their Pollution

Middle Income Countries are Incentivized to Lower Standards to Attract Business

Poor Countries are Desperate to Undertake Severe and Dangerous Practices to Mine and Recover Wastes

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Economic Incentives

Developed Countries Export the Pollution Problems Hope that Product Prices Don’t Increase

Middle Income Countries Compromise Standards to Compete for Business Adopt Lower Standards to Decrease Costs

Poor Income Countries Desperate for Any Income No Standards and Corruption

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Last Word

The Prognosis is for Evermore Horrific Mining and Informal Recycling Related Environmental Health Catastrophes in Poor Countries

Middle Income Countries will Face Increasing Pressure to Compromise their Health, Environment and Worker Protection to Attract Mineral Processing Business

Developed Countries will Export their Environmental Health Problems to Avoid Compliance Costs and Lower Commodity Prices

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Soil and Dust in Compounds Contaminated Food, Water Mining / Processing Waste

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