Living with Climate Change

Are there Limits to Adaptation?

ThemesTheme 1: Adapting to thresholds in

physical and ecological systems

Theme 2: The role of values and culture in adaptation

Theme 3: Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation

Adaptation is necessary ….

450ppmv cumulative emission scenarios peaking in 2020

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e)

0

20

40

60

80

Low ALow BMedium AMedium BHigh AHigh B

Bows and Anderson (2008) Phil Trans Roy Soc in press.

Global emissions growing at 2.7% p.a., 2000-08. They will have to drop like a stone after 2020 to meet any reasonable stabilisation level

Thinking behind the Themes

Adaptation may be limited by:• divergent goals of adaptation (diverse and

incommensurable values)• uncertainty in foresight• intrinsic current value of places and identities

Adaptation is constrained by:• social characteristics and individual behaviour

Adger, Dessai et al. (2008) – background paper

Theme 1 Adapting to thresholds in physical

and ecological systems

• Can limits be defined in physical parameters when adaptation involves biological and human adaptation?

• Irreversibility …..• …… of social, cultural and

ecological attributes?

Information is not the constraint

Year

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Sum

mer

tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

(ºC

)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Year

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Sum

mer

pre

cipi

tatio

n ch

ange

(%

)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Dessai and Hulme (2008) GRL submitted

UK climate scenarios from 1990-2002 compare favourably to recent CET observations

Theme 2

Role of values and culture in adaptation

• Unique nature of places, societies, cultures• Identities bound to localities• Subjective, cultural and symbolic values• Continuous change and adaptation?

Theme 3

Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation

Scale

Agency

Diverse goals

Modes of governance

A priori thoughts

• Adaptation is happening now, but constrained by behaviour, inertia and contested values and aims

• Adaptation is absolutely necessary and resonates with sustainable development

• Adaptation will be painful for many

Living with Climate Change

Are there Limits to Adaptation?