Life at the edge: local adaptation and range limits for two estuarine sea slugs
Living with Climate Change Are there Limits to Adaptation?
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Transcript of Living with Climate Change Are there Limits to Adaptation?
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Living with Climate Change
Are there Limits to Adaptation?
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ThemesTheme 1: Adapting to thresholds in
physical and ecological systems
Theme 2: The role of values and culture in adaptation
Theme 3: Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation
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Adaptation is necessary ….
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450ppmv cumulative emission scenarios peaking in 2020
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of g
reen
hous
e ga
ses
(GtC
O2e)
0
20
40
60
80
Low ALow BMedium AMedium BHigh AHigh B
Bows and Anderson (2008) Phil Trans Roy Soc in press.
Global emissions growing at 2.7% p.a., 2000-08. They will have to drop like a stone after 2020 to meet any reasonable stabilisation level
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Thinking behind the Themes
Adaptation may be limited by:• divergent goals of adaptation (diverse and
incommensurable values)• uncertainty in foresight• intrinsic current value of places and identities
Adaptation is constrained by:• social characteristics and individual behaviour
Adger, Dessai et al. (2008) – background paper
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Theme 1 Adapting to thresholds in physical
and ecological systems
• Can limits be defined in physical parameters when adaptation involves biological and human adaptation?
• Irreversibility …..• …… of social, cultural and
ecological attributes?
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Information is not the constraint
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sum
mer
tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
(ºC
)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sum
mer
pre
cipi
tatio
n ch
ange
(%
)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dessai and Hulme (2008) GRL submitted
UK climate scenarios from 1990-2002 compare favourably to recent CET observations
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Theme 2
Role of values and culture in adaptation
• Unique nature of places, societies, cultures• Identities bound to localities• Subjective, cultural and symbolic values• Continuous change and adaptation?
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Theme 3
Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation
Scale
Agency
Diverse goals
Modes of governance
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A priori thoughts
• Adaptation is happening now, but constrained by behaviour, inertia and contested values and aims
• Adaptation is absolutely necessary and resonates with sustainable development
• Adaptation will be painful for many
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Living with Climate Change
Are there Limits to Adaptation?