DECEMBER2,2014

Libya'sConstitutionalCrisisBYNAEEMALGHERIANY

OmaralHassi,primeministeroftheLibyanrivalgovernment,speaksduringaninterviewwithReutersattheheadquartersofhisofficeinTripoliNovember27,2014.HassihaswarnedthatattemptsbyarivalgovernmentintheeasttoassertcontrolovertheoilindustrycouldescalatethepoliticalconflictdividingtheOPECmemberstateandforceittobreakintwo.PicturetakenNovember27,2014.REUTERS/IsmailZitouny

OnNovember6,2014,inanunexpecteddecision,andagainstabackdropofcontinuingpoliticaland

militarypolarization,theConstitutionalChamberofLibya'sSupremeCourtstruckdownthe7th

AmendmenttotheConstitutionalDeclaration,thecurrentsupremelawofLibya.Thisamendment,

passedbyLibyastransitionallegislativebody,theGeneralNationalCongress(GNC),inMarch2014,

hadprovidedthebasisfortheelectionofaHouseofRepresentativesinJune2014.TheSupreme

Court'srulinghasbeeninterpretedbymany,includingtherumpGNCanditsSalvationGovernmentin

Tripoli,assignalingthedissolutionoftheHouseofRepresentatives.Thisinterpretation,alongwiththe

rumpHouse'srejectionofit,hasthrownthecountryintoadangerousconstitutionalcrisis,onewhich

threatenstofurtherintensifytheseeminglyintractablepoliticalandmilitaryconflictthathasplaguedLibya

overthepastthreeyears.

Inthewakeofthecourt'sruling,anumberofLibyanlawyersandlegalscholarshaveexpressed

dissentingopinionsaboutthedecision,withsomearguingthatitdoesnotnecessarilyentaildissolutionof

theHouse.Theseopinionswillremainpurelyacademic,however,unlessthecourtprovidesclarification

astotheimplicationsofitsruling.Shouldthecourtdoso,itwouldenabletheresumptionofthe

GhadamesdialoguethatwasfirstlaunchedinSeptember2014,attheinvitationoftheUnitedNations

SupportMissioninLibya(UNSMIL),andwhichsoughttobringtogetheropposingfactionsfromthe

dividedHouseofRepresentativeswithaviewtowardendingthecurrentpoliticalstalemate.However,

shortofaclearstatementfromthecourtthatitsdecisiondoesnotimplydissolutionoftheHouse,a

viablepoliticalsolutiontothecrisisremainselusive.

FourscenariosarepossibleifthecourtsdecisionisinterpretedtosignaldissolutionoftheHouseof

Representatives.First,competingsidescouldacceptthecourt'sdecisionandrecognizetherumpGNC

asthesolelegitimatelegislativebodyuntilthenextelectionseitherearlyelectionsorelectionsfollowing

theratificationoftheconstitution.Thisoptionisunlikelytobechosengiventhatmanymembersofthe

House,andsomemembersoftheGNC,wouldrejecttheGNCsreturn.

Asecondoptionwouldbetoignorethecourt'sdecisionandcontinuetorecognizetheHouseof

RepresentativesasthesolelegitimatelegislativebodyinLibya.Thisoptionisunsatisfactoryinsofarasit

posessimilarriskstothefirst,withtheaddednegativeramificationsofunderminingthecourtandthe

independenceofthejudiciaryinastatethatcanillaffordtoerodeoneofitsfewfunctioninginstitutions.

AthirdscenariowouldbetocallontheConstitutionDraftingAssembly(CDA),thespecialbodyelected

inFebruary2014todraftanewconstitutionforLibya,tofillthelegislativevoid,limitingitsroleto

appointingaunitygovernmentandpreparingfornewelections.However,distractingtheCDAcould

delaycompletionofitsprincipaltask.Inaddition,thisoptioncouldalsofacestrongoppositionfrommany

parties(includingtheHouseandtheGNC),withnoguaranteethattheconstitutionalityoftheactionwill

notbechallengedinthecourts.

SincethereinstatementoftheGNCwouldbeviewedasunacceptabletotherumpHouseof

Representatives,aswellastomostoftheforcesineasternLibya,thefirstscenarioisnotaviable

option.However,itwouldbeimpossiblefortheHousetocontinuewithbusinessasusualinthewakeof

theSupremeCourt'sdecision.ThisnecessitatestheprorogationoftheHouseuntilapoliticalsettlement

canbereachedoruntilanewlegislativebodyiselected.TheprorogationoftheHousewould,however,

resultinariskyperiodoflegislativevacuuminthecountry.WhileLibyanswouldassumeprimary

responsibilityfornavigatingthisdifficultperiod,thisoptionnecessitatesdirectinvolvementandclear

leadershipfromtheUnitedNations,giventheincreasinglyintractablepoliticalpolarizationinthecountry.

Dialoguemediatedbyaneutralthirdpartyistheonlyoptionthatstandsanychanceofsuccess,given

thatnoneoftheotherthreescenariosisconstitutionallyrobustandeachwouldfacestrongopposition

fromthedisadvantagedparty.Thisoptionwouldentailaresumptionofthedialogueprocess,firstinitiated

bytheUnitedNations,butwithanexpandedscope,i.e.,Ghadames2.Thedialogueshouldbe

inclusive,transparent,andinaccordancewiththeprinciplesofnationalownership.Theeffortshould

beginbydesignatingmembersofthedialogueteamanddevelopingaclearactionplan.Thedialogue

teamshouldincluderepresentativesfromtheGNC,theHouse,citycouncils,leadersofthearmed

groups,politicalparties,religiousleaders,andrepresentativesofcivilsociety.TheUnitedNationsshould

ensurethattheinterlocutorsreachanagreementonacomprehensiveandverifiableceasefireandthe

formationofaninterimunitygovernment.Thenewinterimgovernmentshouldonlymanagedaytoday

affairsandshouldnotundertakeanymajorpolicyinitiatives.Otherissuestobenegotiatedincludethe

withdrawalofarmedgroupsfrommajorcities,controlofairportsbygovernmentauthorities,handoverof

statebuildingsandfacilitiestothegovernment,andinterimsecurityarrangements.

TheroleoftheUnitedNationsinmediatingapoliticalsolutionisindispensablehowever,its

effectivenessiscontingentonthestrongsupportoftheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion,andon

puttinganendtodisruptiveoutsideinterference.Thisrequiresholdingallcountriestocommitments

madeduringtheSeptember2014NewYorkmeetingonLibya,convenedbyUSSecretaryofStateJohn

Kerryandattendedbyadozenforeignministers,andtheOctober2014Parismeeting,whichbrought

togetherSpecialEnvoysoftheAfricanUnion,ArabLeague,EuropeanUnionandanumberofwestern

governments,withtheSpecialRepresentativeoftheUNSecretaryGeneral,BernardinoLeon.Italso

requirestakingdeterrentmeasures,asstipulatedbyUNSecurityCouncilResolution2174(2014),

againstindividualsandentitiesthatthreatenLibyasstability,security,orobstructorundermineits

peacefulpoliticaltransitionincludingtherenegadeGeneralKhalifaHaftar,amongothers.

AsacountrythatstandsatthegeopoliticalcrossroadbetweenAfrica,Europe,andtheMiddleEast,

Libyaistooimportanttofail.Theriskofitfallingintoafullblownandprolongedcivilwar,ifabandonedat

thiscriticalmoment,isreal,butthereisstilltimetoputthecountrybackontrack.Ifthepoliticalprocess

fails,thepresentwindowofopportunitymayclosepermanentlyandthebreakupofthecountrycould

becomethedefactoscenario.

Dr.NaeemAlGherianyisaProfessorofNuclearEngineeringattheUniversityofTripoliandamember

oftheLibyanHouseofRepresentatives.HepreviouslyservedastheMinisterofHigherEducationand

ScientificResearchinthefirstTransitionalGovernmentinpostQaddafiLibya.

Libya Original

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