ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WATER SECTORIN THE WATER SECTOR

Assessing the Effectiveness of Planned Assessing the Effectiveness of Planned Adaptation Interventions in Reducing Local Adaptation Interventions in Reducing Local

VulnerabilityVulnerability

Case StudyCase Study

Leulseged YirguLeulseged Yirgu 9-11 March 20119-11 March 2011

Outline

• Introduction,• Methodology• Findings:- Local perceptions… - Local coping strategies (autonomous adaptation…)- Effectiveness of proxy-planned adaptation

interventions • Key lessons or learning points

Introduction

Background information on the water resources context and challenges in Ethiopia:

• As per the Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy (WB, 2006), Irrigation in Africa...(FAO, 2005) and ERHA (2010) documents :

• Huge rainfall…– The runoff is, however, highly seasonal, 70% occur in very

short period of time, from June to August, with an average annual rainfall for the country as is 848 mm. The highest annual rainfall (>2000 mm) occur in the SE and West, and it gradually decrease to the NE, East… (< 250 mm)

Cont…

– The total renewable surface water resources are estimated at 122 billion cubic meter per year from 12 major river basins and 22 lakes

• Significant groundwater resources (2.6 billion m³)• Many communities rely on groundwater…• For example in 2002 out of total ground water

withdrawal: 6% used for domestic; 93.6%, was used for irrigation and livestock, and 0.4% for industry…

– This is < 5% (4.6% ) of total actual renewable water resources are withdrawn annually in the country

Cont…

• High hydrological variability and unpredictability both in time (within and between years) and space:

• The country’s significant renewable water resources are unevenly distributed

− At present there is little knowledge of the groundwater resource, including no national-level sector monitoring of groundwater levels,

− Groundwater quality is poor in many areas of the Rift Valley, due to high concentrations of fluoride,

Managing water resources, is a major challenge

Cont…

Climate change and its impacts in Ethiopia: • At a national level, agriculture/food security, water

resources and health have been identified as vulnerable sectors (NAPA, 2008)

• Adapting to CC in the water sector is a focus of the study,

Objective of the study

1. To assess perception of communities to current and previous CC impacts,

2. To assess and documenting local coping strategies (autonomous adaptation actions),

3. To check effectiveness of proxy-planned adaptation interventions…

Methodology

• Research Team: from ODI, HU and EHZ- ARDO, EHWO and FEDO (Nanki K., Million G. and Beneberu S., and Zegeye T., Gebeyehu S., & Endale A.)

• PRA tools: diffrent PRA tools were used to assess local perceptions in relation to CC, these include:

– Wealth ranking , focus group discussions(16), community resource mapping, etc

• House Hold Survey: (60)• Experts interview: district experts and DAs• Secondary data collection and analysis (livelihood ,

population; climate trends; water availability)

Study sites • Oromia Region, Easter Harage Zone: Gorogutu and

Meta districts– Chefeaneni and Bekelcha Oromia villages,

respectively from the above two districts- agricultural livelihood zone

• Somali Region, Shinile Zone: Error district,– Billa village- agro-pastoral livelihood zone(where

livelihoods rely on irrigated agriculture and livestock)– Ayidora village- pastoral livelihood zone

• The study sites are mandate areas of RiPPLE -HCS

Study findingsStudy findings

Local perception of CC

Local communities identified five major indicators… Temperature: …increasing• Indicators:

– The environment getting hotter, – Animals drinking more water – Loss of fodder types (e.g. Deremo, deref, housman, etc) – Reduction of rivers flows and malaria prevalence Increase in temperature-> leading to up-ward

shift of agro-ecological zones

Cont...

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

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10

15

20

25 Deder (1980 - 2005)

Y = 0.0248X - 38.5267

R2 = 0.0865

Y = 0.0707X - 119.1306

R2 = 0.5411

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(0 C

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Local perception continued

Rainfall:…variability and decrease in amount.. • Indicators:

– Reduction in the vegetation cover of rangeland– Stunned growth of plants,– Distortion of agricultural calendar and delayed /failing of

the ‘Belg' rain , the short rainy season

• Changes in rainfall patterns (timing, intensity, duration, seasonal patterns…)

However, meteorological data analysis on rainfall, shows only annual variability trends …, e.g.

Local perception continued

Soil moisture: …reduced • Indicators: - Drying-up of grazing lands,- Crack formation in farm lands,- Difficulty to plough with oxen and seed germination,- Increase in irrigation water requirement

However, soil moisture content also depends on other factors: soil type, vegetation cover...

Local perception continued

Rivers flows: …decreasing• Indicators: reduction in the discharge of springs, and declining

in the amount of rivers flows and distance traveled Humidity: …getting dry• Indicators: – Change in wind direction, – Dry-up of skin, – Disappearance of morning dew Increase in the extreme weather events occurrence

(droughts and floods) was reported – For example, occurrence of droughts in: 1987,1994, 1996,

2007 in the pastoral areas…reported

Impacts of CC on economic uses of water

The HH survey documented the impacts of identified trends in CC on the economic and domestic use of water across the three different livelihoods

i) Impacts on pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods:• In study areas herd size per HH is decreasing over the last 30 years,• Also changes in herd composition− decline is high to sheep, followed by cow, goat and

camel, shifting to more browsers than grazers

Cont…

• A change in herd composition could be taken as a positive or negative trend in terms of adaptation

– Looking at its positive side, it is good resorting to more drought resistant animals (e.g. goats & camels)

– On its negative side, however, concentrating on few livestock types as opposed to a diversified herd may have negative consequences when it comes to other vulnerabilities like market failure or livestock diseases

• Reasons identified for above trend by the HH Survey:− Lack/changes of fodder and increasing incidence of

livestock diseases; reduced water availability − Family labor, etc

Cont…

ii) Impacts on agricultural livelihoods: • Focus group discussions highlighted that CC has

potentially contributed to a change in the pattern of crop production. For instance, the women’s group reported a shift:

– from HL crops like wheat to LL crops like sorghum, – to more drought-resistant and early maturing crops like chat,

sweet potato, and pumpkin– towards single cropping as compared to double-cropping• Data from the HH survey supports local perceptions

that highlight a decrease in food production. In the last 25 years there has been a decrease in the production of both maize and sorghum

Cont...• Farmers felt that much of the change can be

attributed to:− Increased temperature, rainfall variability and

reduced soil fertility, which in turn have been identified as the causes of changes in agricultural productivity

− Decreasing in farm land size, increasing in input price…

However, it is difficult to say for certain that CC is directly responsible for this change

Impact of CC on domestic uses of water

• Domestic sources of water in the study sites include: − Boreholes, …riverbed excavation and seasonal

ponds (man-made) (in pastoral lowland areas)− Irrigation canals (in the agro-pastoral site)

− Cold springs (both developed and undeveloped),− Hand dug wells, ponds (in the Awash…), …(in the

agricultural sites)

Cont…

CC, in terms of increased variability in rainfall (delayed rainfall…), has resulted in increased seasonality of the water sources…:

– decreased spring discharge, in the highland and midland areas

– decline in ponds storage, in the lowland areas – dry up water sources in a drought situation

Local coping strategies

• In the study area, the following dominant coping strategies adopted by different wealth groups in the three livelihood zones:

Extreme eventsPastoral migrationAsset diversificationImproved crop varietiesFood aidCreditLabour migrationKilling new borne calvesSale of assets

Increased variabilityWater storage / harvestingPumpsUse of donkeys to fetch…----Water management Soil moisture managementReduced water useTravelling to far away water sources

Cont…

Summary of… Three trends that have emerged from the study

findings. These include:i) There is better capacity to deal with CV than EWEii) Relatively coping capacity of the better off wealth

groups is better than that of middle and poor – this is due to a diversified and larger asset base, etc iii) Better off groups rely more on supply side water

resource management interventions( e.g. using donkey to carry water from distance … ) whereas poor and middle wealth groups rely more on demand side interventions to cope with…

Cont...– E.g. the poor HH may

not have donkey rather often they allocation more labour …

The poor HH conflicting labour allocation may have negative implications on the HH income generating and food production, etc.

Cont…

Plus, in times of water stress communities tend to de-prioritise hygiene and sanitation concerns, hence this may have negative health implication…

Moreover, some of the robust coping strategies have undermined due to the increased frequency and intensity of climate induced impacts,…

Effectiveness of planned adaptation options

• The following four proxy-interventions were considered to match NAPA priority projects:

− Small-scale irrigation-3rd − Rangeland management- 4th − PSNP… and − MUS• Assessed in terms of:

– Ability to building local coping capacity where it exists; filling the gap where it does not exists

• Through creation, enhancement, and/or protection of asset base

– Political and financial viability

Cont…

Small-scale irrigation• In the site with access to

small-scale irrigation (SSI) , the study confirms that – does enhance agricultural

productivity– contribute to income

diversification,This enhance the

coping capacity of some wealth groups

Cont…

However, if they are to be effective in addressing the specific challenges of CC, such interventions should take into account the following:

• Irrigation schemes based on exposed sources of water are vulnerable to increased uncertainty related to CV and EWE

– In this context, where possible, irrigation schemes should be developed with the use of water resources that are less exposed to CC (e.g. groundwater sources, night-time irrigation schemes, etc)

Cont…

• Sustainability of water resources being used need to be considered, so the water services has to be coordinated with NRM

Cont…• Also small-scale irrigation is location specific

intervention and also accessible only to better off wealth groups…

Issues of equitable access must be taken into account when promoting this option

– Complementary investments to build up the assets of the poor are needed, etc

Cont… Rangeland management• Rangeland management has the potential to

enhance the coping capacity of pastoral communities and fill gaps where it does not exist. Interventions should strengthen this potential and include further measures to ensure effectiveness. These include:

– Initiatives aimed at promoting local management practices should build on aspects related to social and human capital in order to address conflict situations that are exacerbated by climate-induced impacts

Cont…

– Interventions aimed at the management of rangeland should focus on identifying suitable fodder species that are responsive to changes in herd composition, which is changing due to a number of factors including the impacts of CC.

– Water availability plays a key role in facilitating adaptation amongst pastoral communities. Currently none of the interventions targeted at pastoral communities address this factor, it is suggested that interventions that enhance access to water resources will have to complement the identified planned adaptation interventions under rangeland management

Cont…

PSNP (Productive Safety Net Programme)• Social protection programmes like the PSNP have

been assessed to play a significant role in enhancing adaptive capacity. Interventions under such programmes need to be climate proofed:

– For instance investments in water services under the public works component should draw water from groundwater sources in order to deal with increased variability in rainfall and temperature patterns

• Investments in water under the PSNP, should be coordinated with the investment in WSS

Cont…

Multiple-use water services (MUS)• MUS: both for economic and domestic uses of water– e.g. Reservoir+ water taps + washing basins + cattle troughs

• MUS play a role in enhancing adaptive capacity as they enhance the economic and domestic use of water through multiple benefits,

• It also has the potential to initiate coordinated planning to address the cross-cutting challenges posed by CC

• When investing in MUS the following issues should be considered:

– MUS require inter-sectoral integration

Cont…

– Its planning and implementation requires buy-in from a number of stakeholders…

– MUS requires well coordinated management system and hence the organisation and training of beneficiaries and stakeholders is essential

– MUS can only achieve their objective of providing multiple services if there is sufficient water to support multiple uses

The impacts of CC are likely to bring water resource management back to being a central component of water planning. This planning under MUS must focus on assessment of available water resources and invest in water resource management to enhance the availability of water

Cont…

Photo by Tristam Sparks

Cont…

In general the study found all the four interventions, having the potential to support adapting to CC, in the contexts of the above suggestions for improvement

Key lessons

The local coping capacity is insufficient in the face of a changing climate: increasing rainfall variability, uncertainty of seasons, etc, may undermined further, therefore, public supports are needed, both at community and HH levels: to assist or maintain the effective and sustainable coping strategies, and to prevent maladaptation...(Jones, et al., 2010)The informed development of the water sector is key to the success of planned adaptation within Ethiopia. Development of groundwater, where the hydrogeology permit and MUS are key recommendations for adaptation policy, …A focus on equity and complementary investments to build up the assets of the poor are needed

Cont…

For the detail please visit, www.rippleethiopia.org

Thank you!Thank you!